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How data science and the analysis of networks help us solve the puzzle of unintended consequences. Social life is full of paradoxes. Our intentional actions often trigger outcomes that we did not intend or even envision. How do we explain those unintended effects and what can we do to regulate them? In Decoding the Social World, Sandra González-Bailón explains how data science and digital traces help us solve the puzzle of unintended consequences—offering the solution to a social paradox that has intrigued thinkers for centuries. Communication has always been the force that makes a collection of people more than the sum of individuals, but only now can we explain why: digital technologies have made it possible to parse the information we generate by being social in new, imaginative ways. And yet we must look at that data, González-Bailón argues, through the lens of theories that capture the nature of social life. The technologies we use, in the end, are also a manifestation of the social world we inhabit. González-Bailón discusses how the unpredictability of social life relates to communication networks, social influence, and the unintended effects that derive from individual decisions. She describes how communication generates social dynamics in aggregate (leading to episodes of “collective effervescence”) and discusses the mechanisms that underlie large-scale diffusion, when information and behavior spread “like wildfire.” She applies the theory of networks to illuminate why collective outcomes can differ drastically even when they arise from the same individual actions. By opening the black box of unintended effects, González-Bailón identifies strategies for social intervention and discusses the policy implications—and how data science and evidence-based research embolden critical thinking in a world that is constantly changing.
Illustrating the knowledge and ideas of thinkers such as Mandeville, Hume, Montesquieu and Smith, this book fully investigates the entire panorama of social sciences as well as providing a clear and concise analysis of the history of the social sciences from the point at which evolutionary theory entered the field.
In this book, based on the 1995 Ohlin Lectures, Deepak Lal provides an accessible, interdisciplinary account of the role of culture in shaping economic performance. Topics addressed include a possible future "clash of civilizations," the role of Asian values in the East Asian economic miracle, the cultural versus economic causes of social decay in the West, and whether modernization leads to Westernization. Lal makes an important distinction between material and cosmological beliefs, showing how both were initially shaped by factor endowments and how they have evolved in response to changing historical pressures in different civilizations. Lal's first major theme is the interaction of factor endowments, culture, and politics in explaining modern intensive growth in the West. The other major theme is the role of individualism--an inadvertent legacy of the medieval Catholic Church--in promoting this growth, and the strange metamorphoses this has caused in both the West's cosmological beliefs and the interaction between "the West and the rest." Lal takes account of the relevant literature in history, anthropology, social psychology, evolutionary biology, neurology, and sociology, and the economic history of the regions and cultures that form Eurasia. An appendix shows how the stories Lal tells can be described by four formal economic models.
Was our country’s economic success before the Crash of ‘08 built on false pretenses? Did we simply borrow and spend too much, or was something else really going on? The conventional wisdom now accuses Wall Street and the mortgage industry of using predatory tactics to seduce homeowners. Meanwhile, average Americans are blamed for increasing consumption to unsustainable levels by borrowing recklessly. And the tax policies of the Reagan and Bush administrations are blamed for encouraging reckless risk-taking. Edward Conard disagrees. In an attempt to set the record straight he presents a fascinating new case for how the economy really works, why the U.S. has outperformed other countries, what caused the financial crisis, and what improvements might better protect our economy without damaging growth.
How is it that, in doing our very best to achieve one thing, we can end up achieving just the opposite? There exists an unseen force with an unassuming name that conceals all manner of terrors. It is ‘Unintended Consequences’, and it takes our efforts to do the good and right thing, turns them to ashes and blows them back in our faces. Whether it be governments fighting a “War on Terror” only to bring their economies crashing about their ears, ecologists attempting to stamp out pests but making things ten times worse in the process, or giving people lots of choice only for them to make worse decisions, it is all too easy to start out with the best of intentions, only to end up doing more harm than good. In Unintended Consequences, Clive Wills discusses national disasters, Prohibition and the War on Drugs, frustrated efforts to improve health and safety, and touches on issues of everyday life such as how to improve relationships and bring up children. As HL Mencken reflected, “For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong”. This book examines the many ways in which those apparently simple solutions can turn around and bite us, and more importantly, just what we can do about it.
An Introductory Text to Designing Complex Systems and Managing Change --
To better understand how high-stakes accountability has influenced teaching and learning, this book takes an in-depth look at the myriad consequences that high-stakes tests hold for students, teachers, administrators, and the public. By focusing on these tests and spending large amounts of time on test preparation and driving teachers to teach low-level, rote memorization, schools are essentially wiping out non-tested subjects such as science, social studies, physical education, and the arts. Although testing is promoted as a strategy for improving education for all, research shows that testing has differential effects on students with special needs, minority students, students living in poverty, and those for whom English is a second language. The Unintended Consequences of High Stakes Testing unpacks the assumptions and philosophical foundations on which testing policies are based. The authors' arguments are grounded in extensive interviews and research. Through an examination of research, these authors show that high-stakes testing promotes students' dependence on extrinsic motivation at the cost of intrinsic motivation and the associated love of learning—which has tangible impacts on their education and lives. Features: -Examines how high stakes testing from the perspectives of teachers, students, and adminstrators. -Considers how testing impacts the curriculum including tested subjects such as reading, writing, and mathematics as well as non-tested subjects such as science, social studies, physical education, and the arts. -Documents how teachers and administrators engage in test preparation and discusses ethical and unethical test preparation practices. -Reviews the evolution of testing through history and how it mpacts the curriculum. -Examines the differential effects of testing on students with special needs, minority students, students living in poverty, and those for whom English is a second language.
When policymakers, communities or advocates make decisions and take actions, they do so with the purpose of achieving some desired goal. But sometimes, unintended consequences occur. These are outcomes that are not the ones intended by the purposeful decision or action.Unintended consequences can be positive or negative, although the discussions often focus on the unexpected adverse impact that may result from well-intentioned policies or public actions.It is tempting to say that unintended consequences happen because we live in an uncertain and unpredictable world, and that there is not much we can do to prevent their occurrence or prepare for them. In fact, many unintended consequences are neither predetermined nor random. It is true that whether or not unintended consequences happen will be affected by many economic and social factors that Singapore is confronted with, but much will also depend on how we approach these factors and the potential consequences.This book, based on the proceedings at the Behavioural Sciences Institute Conference 2017, explores various issues about unintended consequences in Singapore. The book is organised into four parts. Part 1 provides an overview of issues involved in thinking about unintended consequences. Part 2 examines unintended consequences in the context of Singapore's goal to become a smart nation and compares the perspectives between public and private sector organisations on dealing with uncertainty. Part 3 analyses the relationships linking unintended consequences to healthcare outcomes and the management of race relations in Singapore. Part 4 addresses specific questions on unintended consequences in Singapore in terms of the nation's history, immigration, education, meritocracy, civil service culture and mindsets, and relationships between people and government.This book will provide the reader new perspectives and possibilities related to achieving intended societal goals and building a strong Singapore society.
As humans evolved, we developed technologies to modify our environment, yet these innovations are increasingly affecting our behavior, biology, and society. Now we must figure out how to function in the world we’ve created. Over thousands of years, humans have invented ingenious ways to gain mastery over our environment. The ability to communicate, accumulate knowledge collectively, and build on previous innovations has enabled us to change nature. Innovation has allowed us to thrive. The trouble with innovation is that we can seldom go back and undo it. We invent, embrace, and exploit new technologies to modify our environment. Then we modify those technologies to cope with the resulting impacts. Gluckman and Hanson explore what happens when we innovate in a way that leads nature to bite back. To provide nourishment for a growing population, humans developed methods to process and preserve food; but easy access to these energy-dense foods results in obesity. To protect ourselves from dangerous pathogens we embraced cleanliness and invented antibiotics, which has led to rising rates of autoimmune diseases and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. More recently, our growing dependence on the internet and social media has been linked to mental health concerns and declining social cohesion. And we are only at the beginning of the digital transformation that will influence every part of our existence. Our ingenuity has not only changed our world—it has changed us. Focusing on immediate benefits, we rarely pause to consider the longer-term costs of innovation. Yet we are now starting to see how our choices affect the way our brains develop and our bodies function. The implications are profound. Ingenious opens our eyes to the dangers we face and offers solutions we cannot ignore.