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This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.
Looking at the years 1870-2016, this book analyses the reasons behind Colombia’s chronically slow economic growth. As a comparative economic history, it examines why Colombia has seen lower growth rates than countries with similar institutions, culture and colonial origins, such as Argentina in 1870-1914, Mexico in 1930-1980, and Chile from 1982 onwards. While Colombia's history has shown relative macroeconomic stability, it has also shown a limited capacity for integrating into the world economy and embracing technological breakthroughs compared to the rest of the world, including steam, mass production and Information Technology. This volume thus moves away from the long-held view that institutional path dependence is the main determinant of differences in long-run economic growth across countries.
This Public Governance Review offers advice to help Colombia address its governance challenges effectively and efficiently over time. It provides an assessment and recommendations on how to improve its ability to set, steer, and implement multi-year national development strategy.
OECD's 2013 Economic Survey of Colombia examines recent economic developments, policies, and prospects as well as taking a more detailed look at inequality and productivity and growth.
Increased stability and security have renewed investment confidence in Colombia, which, with vast natural resources, a strengthened fiscal policy following reform in 2012, and a number of new free trade agreements, is well positioned to continue experiencing growth. The extractive industries, alongside the financial, infrastructure and retail sectors are particularly dynamic as the government pursues diversification strategies and the middle class expands.
The Survey examines Colombia’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis as well as the challenges to ensuring stronger and more sustainable growth. It takes an in-depth look at the social protection system, and discusses reforms that could improve the sustainability of public finances, boost productivity growth and improve opportunities for all Colombians.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Colombia’s favorable outlook, underpinned by the peace agreement, structural tax reform, and the authorities’ infrastructure agenda. Economic activity will rebound slightly in 2017 as investment strengthens, boosted by reduced corporate taxation and confidence stemming from the peace agreement. Nontraditional exports are gaining steam thanks in part to ongoing efforts to reduce trade barriers, and this will help bring the current account deficit to its equilibrium level. Medium-term growth will be driven by economic diversification away from oil, which will benefit from the infrastructure agenda, and the peace agreement, which will improve competitiveness and regional development.