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Agricultural production is one of the cornerstones of Nebraska's economy and acts as a driver for the state's economy. Nebraska's geography, infrastructure, and industry all support agriculture, and many industries within the state depend on the labor and goods from agricultural producers. In recent years, prices for agricultural commodities have become increasingly volatile, with fluctuations rising and falling much more intensely than in previous years. Global supply and demand for agricultural commodities continues to increase, especially major commodities produced in Nebraska such as corn, soy, and cattle, and it is likely that price volatility will continue to occur. The impacts of this price volatility are being felt across the state, especially as agricultural commodity prices trend downward. Nebraska's agricultural producers are increasingly unable to break even on their operations, and Nebraska lawmakers are facing a budget shortfall caused in large part by the reduced income received from agricultural production and its ancillary effects. The problem facing Nebraska is incredibly complex, as negative downstream effects are being caused by low commodity prices received by agricultural producers. Policy mechanisms are available to Nebraska lawmakers to manage this problem, but have the ability to exacerbate things if the careful planning and implementation of these policy mechanisms is not conducted. This thesis aims to help define some of the dynamic impacts being felt in the state of Nebraska from global volatility of agricultural commodity prices, and think about these impacts long term. This thesis approaches these issues from a systems thinking perspective, attempting to capture a holistic viewpoint of the major impacts felt in the state now and the potential impacts in the future. An exploratory system dynamics model has been created to explore these dynamic issues and the impacts that different policy mechanisms might have on the state. This thesis by no means provides the "answer" for how to insulate the state of Nebraska from these negative impacts, but offers a first step towards long term systems thinking on the issue.
This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
"The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization's oversimplified faith in free markets. The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds - professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations - the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide."--Publisher's website.
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