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Up-to-Date Research Sheds New Light on This Area Taking into account the ongoing worldwide financial crisis, Stock Market Volatility provides insight to better understand volatility in various stock markets. This timely volume is one of the first to draw on a range of international authorities who offer their expertise on market volatility in devel
Market Volatility proposes an innovative theory, backed by substantial statistical evidence, on the causes of price fluctuations in speculative markets. It challenges the standard efficient markets model for explaining asset prices by emphasizing the significant role that popular opinion or psychology can play in price volatility. Why does the stock market crash from time to time? Why does real estate go in and out of booms? Why do long term borrowing rates suddenly make surprising shifts? Market Volatility represents a culmination of Shiller's research on these questions over the last dozen years. It contains reprints of major papers with new interpretive material for those unfamiliar with the issues, new papers, new surveys of relevant literature, responses to critics, data sets, and reframing of basic conclusions. Included is work authored jointly with John Y. Campbell, Karl E. Case, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jeremy J. Siegel. Market Volatility sets out basic issues relevant to all markets in which prices make movements for speculative reasons and offers detailed analyses of the stock market, the bond market, and the real estate market. It pursues the relations of these speculative prices and extends the analysis of speculative markets to macroeconomic activity in general. In studies of the October 1987 stock market crash and boom and post-boom housing markets, Market Volatility reports on research directly aimed at collecting information about popular models and interpreting the consequences of belief in those models. Shiller asserts that popular models cause people to react incorrectly to economic data and believes that changing popular models themselves contribute significantly to price movements bearing no relation to fundamental shocks.
In an efficient capital market, asset prices vary when investors change their expectations about cash flows, discount rates, or both. Using dividends to measure cash flows, previous research shows that the aggregate dividend-price ratio varies due to changes in expected discount rates (returns) rather than expected cash flows. In contrast, using accounting earnings instead of dividends as a measure of cash flows, this paper shows that as much as 70% of the variation in the dividend-price ratio can be explained by changes in expected earnings. Moreover, the paper documents a significant negative correlation between expected returns and expected earnings, suggesting that variations in a common factor to both may generate significant price volatility. The results are consistent with the dividend-policy irrelevance hypothesis.
It takes a special set of trading skills to thrive in today's intensely volatile markets, where point swings of plus or minus 200 points can occur on a weekly, sometimes daily, basis. The Volatility Course arms stock and options traders with those skills. George Fontanills and Tom Gentile provide readers with a deeper understanding of market volatility and the forces that drive it. They develop a comprehensive road map detailing how to identify its ups and downs. And they describe proven strategies and tools for quantifying volatility and confidently developing plans tailored to virtually any given market condition. The companion workbook provides step-by-step exercises to help you master the strategies outlined in The Volatility Course before putting them into action in the markets.
Practical option strategies for the new post-crisis financial market Traditional buy-and-hold investing has been seriously challenged in the wake of the recent financial crisis. With economic and market uncertainty at a very high level, options are still the most effective tool available for managing volatility and downside risk, yet they remain widely underutilized by individuals and investment managers. In Options for Volatile Markets, Richard Lehman and Lawrence McMillan provide you with specific strategies to lower portfolio volatility, bulletproof your portfolio against any catastrophe, and tailor your investments to the precise level of risk you are comfortable with. While the core strategy of this new edition remains covered call writing, the authors expand into more comprehensive option strategies that offer deeper downside protection or even allow investors to capitalize on market or individual stock volatility. In addition, they discuss new offerings like weekly expirations and options on ETFs. For investors who are looking to capitalize on global investment opportunities but are fearful of lurking "black swans", this book shows how ETFs and options can be utilized to construct portfolios that are continuously protected against unforeseen calamities. A complete guide to the increased control and lowered risk covered call writing offers active investors and traders Addresses the changing investment environment and how to use options to succeed within it Explains how to use options with exchange-traded funds Understanding options is now more important than ever, and with Options for Volatile Markets as your guide, you'll quickly learn how to use them to protect your portfolio as well as improve its overall performance.
Despite concerns are often voiced on the so called “excess volatility” of the stock market, little is known about the implications of market volatility for the real economy. This paper examines whether the stock market volatility affects real fixed investment. The empirical evidence obtained from the US data shows that market volatility has independent effects on investment over and above that of stock returns. Volatility and its changes are negatively related to investment growth. To the extent volatility depresses fixed capital formation and hence future income growth, the results suggest the desirability of reducing stock market volatility.
It is now abundantly clear that stock volatility is a contagious disease that spreads virulently from market to market around the world. Price changes in one market drive subsequent price changes in that market as well as in others. In Beast, Haugen makes a compelling case for the fact that even under normal conditions, fully 80 percent of stock volatility is price driven. Moreover, this volatility is far from benign. It acts to reduce the level of investment spending and constitutes a significant and permanent drag on economic growth. Price-driven volatility is unstable. Dramatic and unpredictable explosions in price-driven volatility can send stock markets in a downward spiral and cause significant disruptions in economic activity. Haugen argues that this indeed happened in 1929 and 1930. If volatility in Asian markets persists, it can easily become the source of the problem rather than merely a symptom.
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.