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This report examines the impact of uncertainty in the land use component of a partially integrated land use-transportation modeling system called UrbanSim. Outputs from the land use model (LUM) act as inputs for a traditional 4-step travel demand model (TDM), and travel times from the traffic-assignment stage of the TDM are fed forward into the subsequent year's LUM. This work examines the propagation of uncertainty across model stages as well as at each model stage over time. A factorized design approach is used to model uncertainty in demographic inputs to the LUM, as well as uncertainty in various model parameters. Results suggest that while several model inputs may affect model outputs in the short run, only those inputs having a cumulative effect are likely to have a significant impact on outputs in the long run. Results also suggest that uncertainty in model outputs may increase for the first few years for which the model is run, as modified inputs send shocks through the urban system. However, the uncertainty level seems to come down in later years, as jobs, households, and developers respond to changed input conditions.
Concerned citizens across the United States are increasingly asking officials about the effects of proposed new highways and their alternatives, such as transit and road pricing, on how their communities will grow, the air their children will breathe, and the amount of time they will have to spend in traffic commuting to work. It is widely acknowledged, however, that the models used to assess these effects have limited accuracy and sensitivity to alternatives to highway expansion. This study attempts to move beyond the issues of uncertainty in models used to forecast the travel, land use, and air quality effects of transportation projects and policies by (1) reviewing the literature on error and uncertainty in travel and land use models to understand key sources, likely confidence bounds, and potential biases; (2) conducting interviews with modeling experts to gain insight into how uncertain models may be improved and better applied in transportation studies; and (3) presenting a series of cases studies that illustrate innovative and, possibly, more credible approaches to modeling given different study objectives, model capability, and knowledge of model uncertainty.
For many years the integration of the location of land use and activities in spatial systems, as well as the provision of transport in movement of goods, services and people, has been recognized as a challenge amongst various specialists, including: engineers, transportation planners, economists, environmentalists, urban and regional planners and developers. The purpose of this book is to address transportation modelling in terms of technology, techniques and methodology application in context to the interface between transportation systems, land use planning, and environmental challenges and application. The methodology of transportation modelling is applied to international practices and application based on specific case studies, inclusive of public transportation projects; transportation modelling techniques in practice; international research agenda; network design and channel strategies; strategic planning; application of technology in traffic surveys and interpretation; emissions from transportation systems; application of mathematical models and the interface between environment, land use and development in terms of location in space and the resulting activities. Of value to both theorists and practitioners, this book references the integration of transportation modelling techniques within an interdisciplinary environment inside all spatial systems.
This book explores how transportation models can play a role in a changing transport planning and policy making context. Most models are rooted in decades of development work and are geared to offer value-free, academic and explicit knowledge to transport planning experts. However, planning practice has changed dramatically over the years, resulting in a less technical rational view on the use of such knowledge – especially so in early, strategy making phases. More and more complex policy goals, integration of a wide area of other policy domains, a wider, ever-changing and much more mixed group of planning participants and much more focus on ‘wicked problems’. The book maps how this influences the effectiveness of transport modelling exercises and explores several state-of-the-art implementations. This book was published as a special issue of Transport Reviews.
This book explores how transportation models can play a role in a changing transport planning and policy making context. Most models are rooted in decades of development work and are geared to offer value-free, academic and explicit knowledge to transport planning experts. However, planning practice has changed dramatically over the years, resulting in a less technical rational view on the use of such knowledge – especially so in early, strategy making phases. More and more complex policy goals, integration of a wide area of other policy domains, a wider, ever-changing and much more mixed group of planning participants and much more focus on ‘wicked problems’. The book maps how this influences the effectiveness of transport modelling exercises and explores several state-of-the-art implementations. This book was published as a special issue of Transport Reviews.
This volume brings together works resulting from research carried out by members of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) and presented during meetings and workshops organized by the Group under the patronage of the Association of European Operational Research Societies in 2012 and 2013. The main targets of the EWGT include providing a forum to share research information and experience, encouraging joint research and the development of both theoretical methods and applications, and promoting cooperation among the many institutions and organizations which are leaders at national level in the field of transportation and logistics. The primary fields of interest concern operational research methods, mathematical models and computation algorithms, to solve and sustain solutions to problems mainly faced by public administrations, city authorities, public transport companies, service providers and logistic operators. Related areas of interest are: land use and transportation planning, traffic control and simulation models, traffic network equilibrium models, public transport planning and management, applications of combinatorial optimization, vehicle routing and scheduling, intelligent transport systems, logistics and freight transport, environment problems, transport safety, and impact evaluation methods. In this volume, attention focuses on the following topics of interest: · Decision-making and decision support · Energy and Environmental Impacts · Urban network design · Optimization and simulation · Traffic Modelling, Control and Network Traffic Management · Transportation Planning · Mobility, Accessibility and Travel Behavior · Vehicle Routing