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This book is composed of selected papers from the Sixteenth National Conference on Operational and Systems Research, BOS-2020, held on December 14-15, 2020, one of premiere conferences in the field of operational and systems research. The second is the Nineteenth International Workshop on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Generalized Nets, IWIFSGN 2020, held on December 10-11, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland, in turn—one of premiere conferences on fuzzy logic, notably on extensions of the traditional fuzzy sets, also comprising a considerable part on the generalized nets (GNs), an important extension of the traditional Petri nets. A joint publication of selected papers from the two conferences follows a long tradition of such a joint organization and—from a substantial point of view—combines systems modeling, systems analysis, broadly perceived operational research, notably optimization, decision making, and decision support, with various aspects of uncertain and imprecise information and their related tools and techniques.
This volume is composed of selected papers from two conferences held in Warsaw, Poland on October 13-15, 2022: the BOS/SOR’2022 - National Conference on Operational and Systems Research, one of premiere conferences in the field of operational and systems research, and the Twentith International Workshop on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Generalized Nets, IWIFSGN-2022, one of premiere conferences on fuzzy logic, notably on extensions of the traditional fuzzy sets, also comprising a considerable part on the Generalized Nets (GNs). A joint publication of selected papers from the two conferences follows a long tradition of such a joint organization, and – from a substantial point of view – combines systems modeling, systems analysis, broadly perceived operational research, notably optimization, decision making and decision support, with various aspects of uncertain and imprecise information and their related tools and techniques.
This book is composed of selected papers from the Sixteenth National Conference on Operational and Systems Research, BOS-2020, held on December 14-15, 2020, one of premiere conferences in the field of operational and systems research. The second is the Nineteenth International Workshop on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and Generalized Nets, IWIFSGN 2020, held on December 10-11, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland, in turn—one of premiere conferences on fuzzy logic, notably on extensions of the traditional fuzzy sets, also comprising a considerable part on the generalized nets (GNs), an important extension of the traditional Petri nets. A joint publication of selected papers from the two conferences follows a long tradition of such a joint organization and—from a substantial point of view—combines systems modeling, systems analysis, broadly perceived operational research, notably optimization, decision making, and decision support, with various aspects of uncertain and imprecise information and their related tools and techniques.
This book gathers selected papers from two important conferences held on October 24–28, 2018, in Warsaw, Poland: theFifteenth National Conference of Operational and Systems Research, BOS-2018, one of the leading conferences in the field of operational and systems research not only in Poland but also at the European level; andthe Seventeenth International Workshop on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and General Nets, IWIFSGN-2018, one of thepremiere conferences on fuzzy logic. The papers presented here constitute a fair and comprehensive representation of the topics covered by both BOS-2018 and IWIFSGN-2018, includingextensions of the traditional fuzzy sets, in particular on the intuitionistic fuzzy sets, as well as other topics in uncertainty and imprecision modeling, the Generalized Nets (GNs), a powerful extension of the traditional Petri net paradigm, and InterCriteria Analysis, a new method for feature selection and analyses in multicriteria and multi-attribute decision-making problems. The Workshop was dedicated to the memory of Professor Beloslav Riečan (1936–2018), a regular participant at the IWIFSGN workshops.
This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decision-making techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty—and who want to work on remaining challenges.
Business industries depend on advanced models and tools that provide an optimal and objective decision-making process, ultimately guaranteeing improved competitiveness, reducing risk, and eliminating uncertainty. Thanks in part to the digital era of the modern world, reducing these conditions has become much more manageable. Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts provides research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of effective decision making based not only on mathematical techniques, but also on those technological tools that are available nowadays in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as industrial informatics, knowledge management, and production planning, this book is ideally designed for decision makers, researchers, engineers, academicians, and students.
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.