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Concerned citizens across the United States are increasingly asking officials about the effects of proposed new highways and their alternatives, such as transit and road pricing, on how their communities will grow, the air their children will breathe, and the amount of time they will have to spend in traffic commuting to work. It is widely acknowledged, however, that the models used to assess these effects have limited accuracy and sensitivity to alternatives to highway expansion. This study attempts to move beyond the issues of uncertainty in models used to forecast the travel, land use, and air quality effects of transportation projects and policies by (1) reviewing the literature on error and uncertainty in travel and land use models to understand key sources, likely confidence bounds, and potential biases; (2) conducting interviews with modeling experts to gain insight into how uncertain models may be improved and better applied in transportation studies; and (3) presenting a series of cases studies that illustrate innovative and, possibly, more credible approaches to modeling given different study objectives, model capability, and knowledge of model uncertainty.
Describe how transit agencies, metropolitan planning organizations, and state DOTs can act today to initiate or expand their analytical tools for integrated land use-transportation planning. The Guidelines are intended for the general reader having an interest in the effects of transit on land use. The Guidelines describe currently available integrated models, the characteristics of an "ideal" integrated model, and steps that a planning organization should take in order to support and expand such modeling capability.
In addition, models for optimal transportation supply decisions are integrated with the demand models. Transit travel and goods movements are specifically addressed.
On May 21 through 23, 2006, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) convened the Innovations in Travel Demand Modeling Conference in Austin, Texas. The conference was sponsored by the following agencies, organizations, and companies to provide an opportunity for a frank exchange of ideas and experiences among academics, model developers, and practitioners: TRB, FHWA, FTA, the Central Texas Regional Mobility Authority, the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority, PBS & J-Austin, URS Corporation, and HNTB Corporation. Approximately 220 individuals from across the transportation research community at national, state, regional, and local levels and from the public and private sectors and academia participated. The last major conference on specialty travel demand modeling was held as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation's Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP) in the fall of 1996. At that time, there was little research and no practical application of land use models and activity-based travel demand models and their integration with demographic, economic, and network modes. Since then, there has been a literal revolution in travel demand forecasting.
The idea for this book had its origins in a series of working papers prepared for the Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model project. The book is not an official report on that project and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgia Department of Transportation. Mrs. Catherine Bennett, Systems Designer, assisted in the special run of the Georgia State Econometric Model in Chapter 2. Mr. Richard Burns and Miss Louise Shedd, research assistant!i, aided in data assembly and analysis for Chapters 3 and 5. The authors wish to express their particular thanks to Mrs. Dallas Gonzales, who provided editorial assistance, and to Mrs. Deborah Conklin, who typed the final manuscript. Table of contents PREFACE v LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES xii 1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW PAUL F. WENDT Urban growth theories 1 Land use models 4 The Georgia transportation planning land use model 6 Employment and population submodel 7 Description of the Delphi technique 8 Housing and population submodel 9 Relationships between land use forecasting 10 Summary 12 2. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELS 16 JOHN B. LEGLER AND TERRY D. ROBERTSON Macro-econometric models 16 Problems in constructing regional econometric models 19 The Georgia model 20 Testing the Georgia model 22 Forecasts and applications of the Georgia model 25 An example of impact analysis using the Georgia state model 28 Summary 30 3. GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE GEORGIA REGIONAL ECONOMIES 32 CHARLES F.