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The current, if uneasy, harmony that exists among the great powers was fostered by the collapse of communism as a militant ideology, by the emergence of economics as a primary emphasis of governments, by nuclear weapons, which made war exceedingly dangerous, and by the spread of democracy. Democratic great powers favor the tranquility of the post-Cold War era and they are unlikely to seek dramatic change. One development that could change the status quo is European political unity, which would almost inevitably exclude Russia; however, such unity is unlikely in the near term. Russia and China, the great powers that are not fully or irrevocably democracies, are the great post-Cold War question marks. Political uncertainty and the continuing vibrancy of nationalism, combined with irredentist claims, mean that the need to rally political support at home can lead to assertive international rhetoric and action. Conflicts within and between peripheral states are the source of most turbulence in today's world. Most of these conflicts have little real importance to the great powers. However, nuclear proliferation among peripheral states is a source of instability the great powers cannot overlook.
This text explores the sources of contemporary conflict and the many possible responses to it. The authors - 50 analysts of international affairs - present multiple perspectives on how best to prevent, manage or resolve conflicts around the world.
Bosnia, Rwanda, Haiti, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria - a quarter-century of stumbles in America’s pursuit of a more peaceful and just world. American military interventions have cost thousands of lives and billions of dollars, yet we rarely manage to enact positive and sustainable change. In Peace Works: America's Unifying Role in a Turbulent World, ambassador and global conflict leader Rick Barton uses a mix of stories, history, and analysis for a transformative approach to foreign affairs and offers concrete and attainable solutions for the future. Drawing on his lifetime of experience as a diplomat, foreign policy expert, and State Department advisor, Rick Barton grapples with the fact that the U.S. is strategically positioned and morally obligated to defuse international conflicts, but often inadvertently escalates conflicts instead. Guided by the need to find solutions that will yield tangible results, Barton does a deep analysis of our last several interventions and discusses why they failed and how they could have succeeded. He outlines a few key directives in his foreign policy strategy: remain transparent with the American public, act as a catalyzing (not colonizing!) force, and engage local partners. But above all else, he insists that the U.S. must maintain a focus on people. Since a country’s greatest resource is often the ingenuity of its local citizens, it is counterproductive to ignore them while planning an intervention. By anchoring each chapter to a story from a specific conflict zone, Barton is able to discuss opportunities pursued and missed, areas for improvement, and policy recommendations. This balance between storytelling and concrete policy suggestions both humanizes distant stories of foreign crises, and provides going-forward solutions for desperate situations. The book begins and ends in Syria – the ultimate failure of our current approach to foreign policy, and with devastating consequences.
In the era of globalization, awareness surrounding issues of violence and human rights violations has reached an all-time high. In a world where billions of human beings have the potential to create endless destruction, these same individuals are capable of working cooperatively to create adequate solutions to current global problems. The Handbook of Research on Transitional Justice and Peace Building in Turbulent Regions focuses on current issues facing nations and regions where poverty and conflict are endangering the lives of citizens as well as the socio-economic viability of those regions. Highlighting crucial topics and offering potential solutions to problems relating to domestic and international conflict, societal safety and security, as well as political instability, this comprehensive publication is designed to meet the research needs of economists, social theorists, politicians, policy makers, human rights activists, researchers, and graduate-level students across disciplines.
The definitive volume on the sources of contemporary conflict and the array of possible responses to it.
Local voices matter. World Vision offers this book, "Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts", to address a problematic gap within the field of conflict analysis: local knowledge. Analysing large-scale conflict in an inclusive, participatory way will increase the effectiveness of aid in turbulent settings. "Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts" identifies the current participation gap and presents the alternative concepts on which the participatory Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts (MSTC) framework is grounded. Included are concrete, step-by-step tools and seven case studies demonstrating specific MSTC results. The book concludes with a clear vision for the future of participatory macro-level conflict analysis.
The United States faces an increasingly turbulent world. The risk of violent conflict and other threats to international order presents a vexing dilemma: should the United States remain the principal guarantor of global peace and security with all its considerable commitments and potential pitfalls––not least new and costly military entanglements––that over time diminish its capacity and commitment to play this vital role or, alternatively, should it pull back from the world in the interests of conserving U.S. power, but at the possible cost of even greater threats emerging in the future? Paul B. Stares proposes an innovative and timely strategy—“preventive engagement”—to resolve America’s predicament. This approach entails pursuing three complementary courses of action: promoting policies known to lessen the risk of violent conflict over the long term; anticipating and averting those crises likely to lead to costly military commitments in the medium term; and managing ongoing conflicts in the short term before they escalate further and exert pressure on the United States to intervene. In each of these efforts, forging “preventive partnerships” with a variety of international actors, including the United Nations, regional organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and the business community, is essential. The need to think and act ahead that lies at the heart of a preventive engagement strategy requires the United States to become less shortsighted and reactive. Drawing on successful strategies in other areas, Preventive Engagement provides a detailed and comprehensive blueprint for the United States to shape the future and reduce the potential dangers ahead.
Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.
Among the unwelcome legacies of the past century are a group of conflicts, both intrastate and interstate, that seem destined never to end. From Kashmir to Nagorno-Karabakh, Colombia to Sudan, the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East, these deeply entrenched, intermittently violent conflicts have so far resisted all outside efforts to resolve them.What lessons aside from the apparent futility of mediation can such dismal situations possibly offer? As the distinguished contributors to "Grasping the Nettle" make plain, this is not a rhetorical question. Unyielding conflicts offer numerous insights not only about the sources of intractability but also about such facets of mediation and conflict management as how to gain leverage, when to engage and disengage, how to balance competing goals, and who to enlist to play supporting roles.The first part of this eye-opening volume identifies and analyzes the defining characteristics and underlying dynamics of intractable conflicts. The second part turns the spotlight on no fewer than eight current cases, in each instance chronicling the conflict's evolution, evaluating the internal and external factors that have conspired to prevent a settlement, and assessing whether past peacemaking initiatives have in fact only aggravated the conflict. The conclusion makes the point that even intractable conflicts eventually end and highlights the strategic approaches and tactical steps that have yielded success in the past for mediators and conflict managers from governments, international organizations, and NGOs."