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Anyone involved in the philosophy of science is naturally drawn into the study of the foundations of probability. Different interpretations of probability, based on competing philosophical ideas, lead to different statistical techniques, and frequently to mutually contradictory consequences. This unique book presents a new interpretation of probability, rooted in the traditional interpretation that was current in the 17th and 18th centuries. Mathematical models are constructed based on this interpretation, and statistical inference and decision theory are applied, including some examples in artificial intelligence, solving the main foundational problems. Nonstandard analysis is extensively developed for the construction of the models and in some of the proofs. Many nonstandard theorems are proved, some of them new, in particular, a representation theorem that asserts that any stochastic process can be approximated by a process defined over a space with equiprobable outcomes.
This comprehensive study of probability considers the approaches of Pascal, Laplace, Poisson, and others. It also discusses Laws of Large Numbers, the theory of errors, and other relevant topics.
It is tempting to think that, if a person's beliefs are coherent, they are also likely to be true. Indeed, this truth-conduciveness claim is the cornerstone of the popular coherence theory of knowledge and justification. Hitherto much confusion has been caused by the inability of coherence theorists to define their central concept. Nor have they succeeded in specifying in unambiguous terms what the notion of truth-conduciveness involves. This book is the most extensive and detailedstudy of coherence and probable truth to date.Erik Olsson argues that the value of coherence has been generally overestimated; it is severely problematic to maintain that coherence has a role to play in the process whereby beliefs are acquired or justified. He proposes that the opposite of coherence, i.e. incoherence, can still be the driving force in the process whereby beliefs are retracted, so that the role of coherence in our enquiries is negative rather than positive. Another innovative feature of Olsson's book is its unified,interdisciplinary approach to the issues at hand. The arguments are equally valid for coherence among any items of information, regardless of their sources (beliefs, memories, testimonies, and so on). Writing in accessible, non-technical language, Olsson takes the reader through much of the history of thesubject, from early theorists like A. C. Ewing and C. I. Lewis to contemporary figures like Laurence BonJour and C. A. J. Coady. Against Coherence will make stimulating reading for epistemologists and anyone with a serious interest in truth.
It is a commonplace that scientific inquiry makes extensive use of probabilities, many of which seem to be objective chances, describing features of reality that are independent of our minds. Such chances appear to have a number of paradoxical or puzzling features: they appear to be mind-independent facts, but they are intimately connected with rational psychology; they display a temporal asymmetry, but they are supposed to be grounded in physical laws that are time-symmetric; and chances are used to explain and predict frequencies of events, although they cannot be reduced to those frequencies. This book offers an accessible and non-technical introduction to these and other puzzles. Toby Handfield engages with traditional metaphysics and philosophy of science, drawing upon recent work in the foundations of quantum mechanics and thermodynamics to provide a novel account of objective probability that is empirically informed without requiring specialist scientific knowledge.
Does God exist? This is probably the most debated question in the history of mankind. Scholars, scientists, and philosophers have spent their lifetimes trying to prove or disprove the existence of God, only to have their theories crucified by other scholars, scientists, and philosophers. Where the debate breaks down is in the ambiguities and colloquialisms of language. But, by using a universal, unambiguous language—namely, mathematics—can this question finally be answered definitively? That’s what Dr. Stephen Unwin attempts to do in this riveting, accessible, and witty book, The Probability of God. At its core, this groundbreaking book reveals how a math equation developed more than 200 years ago by noted European philosopher Thomas Bayes can be used to calculate the probability that God exists. The equation itself is much more complicated than a simple coin toss (heads, He’s up there running the show; tails, He’s not). Yet Dr. Unwin writes with a clarity that makes his mathematical proof easy for even the nonmathematician to understand and a verve that makes his book a delight to read. Leading you carefully through each step in his argument, he demonstrates in the end that God does indeed exist. Whether you’re a devout believer and agree with Dr. Unwin’s proof or are unsure about all things divine, you will find this provocative book enlightening and engaging. “One of the most innovative works [in the science and religion movement] is The Probability of God...An entertaining exercise in thinking.”—Michael Shermer, Scientific American “Unwin’s book [is] peppered with wry, self-deprecating humor that makes the scientific discussions more accessible...Spiritually inspiring.”--Chicago Sun Times “A pleasantly breezy account of some complicated matters well worth learning about.”--Philadelphia Inquirer “One of the best things about the book is its humor.”--Cleveland Plain Dealer “In a book that is surprisingly lighthearted and funny, Unwin manages to pack in a lot of facts about science and philosophy.”--Salt Lake Tribune
Classic work by one of the most brilliant figures in post-war analytic philosophy.
This collection of philosophical essays looks at various technical problems in the use of probability theory for guidance in practical decisions. This text is intended for those who already have a basic grounding in philosophy, logic and probabilty theory.
Written by one of the top most statisticians with experience in diverse fields of applications of statistics, the book deals with the philosophical and methodological aspects of information technology, collection and analysis of data to provide insight into a problem, whether it is scientific research, policy making by government or decision making in our daily lives.The author dispels the doubts that chance is an expression of our ignorance which makes accurate prediction impossible and illustrates how our thinking has changed with quantification of uncertainty by showing that chance is no longer the obstructor but a way of expressing our knowledge. Indeed, chance can create and help in the investigation of truth. It is eloquently demonstrated with numerous examples of applications that statistics is the science, technology and art of extracting information from data and is based on a study of the laws of chance. It is highlighted how statistical ideas played a vital role in scientific and other investigations even before statistics was recognized as a separate discipline and how statistics is now evolving as a versatile, powerful and inevitable tool in diverse fields of human endeavor such as literature, legal matters, industry, archaeology and medicine.Use of statistics to the layman in improving the quality of life through wise decision making is emphasized.
Unlike mathematics, statistics deals with real-world data and involves a higher degree of subjectivity due to the role of interpretation. Interpretation is shaped by context as well as the knowledge, preferences, assumptions and preconceptions of the interpreter, leading to a variety of interpretations of concepts as well as results. Philosophies, Puzzles and Paradoxes: A Statistician’s Search for Truth thoroughly examines the distinct philosophical approaches to statistics – Bayesian, frequentist and likelihood – arising from different interpretations of probability and uncertainty. These differences are highlighted through numerous puzzles and paradoxes and illuminated by extensive discussions of the background philosophy of science. Features: Exploration of the philosophy of knowledge and truth and how they relate to deductive and inductive reasoning, and ultimately scientific and statistical thinking Discussion of the philosophical theories of probability that are wider than the standard Bayesian and frequentist views Exposition and examination of Savage’s axioms as the basis of subjective probability and Bayesian statistics Explanation of likelihood and likelihood-based inference, including the controversy surrounding the likelihood principle Discussion of fiducial probability and its evolution to confidence procedure Introduction of extended and hierarchical likelihood for random parameters, with the recognition of confidence as extended likelihood, leading to epistemic confidence as an objective measure of uncertainty for single events Detailed analyses and new variations of classic paradoxes, such as the Monty Hall puzzle, the paradox of the ravens, the exchange paradox, and more Substantive yet non-technical, catering to readers with only introductory exposure to the theory of probability and statistics This book primarily targets statisticians in general, including both undergraduate and graduate students, as well as researchers interested in the philosophical basis of probability and statistics. It is also suitable for philosophers of science and general readers intrigued by puzzles and paradoxes.
Mathematics is focused on formal manipulation of abstract concepts, while statistics deals with real-world data and involves a higher degree of subjectivity due to the role of interpretation. Interpretation is shaped by context as well as the knowledge, biases, assumptions or preconceptions of the interpreter, leading to a variety of potential interpretations of concepts as well as results. This book thoroughly examines the distinct philosophical approaches to statistics - Bayesian, frequentist, and likelihood - arising from different interpretations of probability and uncertainty. These differences are highlighted through a variety of puzzles and paradoxes. Features: Exploration of the philosophy of knowledge and truth and how they relate to deductive and inductive reasoning, and ultimately scientific and statistical thinking. Discussion of the philosophical theories of probability that are wider than the standard Bayesian and frequentist views. Exposition and examination of Savage's axioms as the basis of subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. Explanation of likelihood and likelihood-based inference, including the controversy surrounding the likelihood principle. Discussion of fiducial probability and its evolution to confidence procedure. Introduction of extended and hierarchical likelihood for handling random parameters, with the recognition of confidence as extended likelihood, leading to epistemic confidence as an objective measure of uncertainty for single events. Detailed analyses and new variations of classic paradoxes, such as the Monty Hall puzzle, the paradox of the ravens, the exchange paradox, etc. Substantive yet non-technical, catering to readers with only introductory exposure to the theory probability and statistics. This book primarily targets statisticians, including both undergraduate and graduate students, as well as researchers interested in the philosophical basis of probability and statistics. It is also suitable for philosophers of science and general readers intrigued by puzzles and paradoxes.