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Tropical Cyclones and hurricanes, long feared for the death and destruction that often accompanies them, are among the most fascinating of atmospheric phenomena. Created by thermodynamic processes, they unleash vast amounts of energy and influence a wide variety of natural processes along their paths. Richard Anthes tells the story of tropical cyclones creation and destruction, of meteorology's successes in understanding, modeling and predicting their behavior, and of the attempts to modify them. The book begins with a lively introduction to hurricanes, their awesome power, and their effects on individuals and societies in the past and present. The characteristics of the mature hurricane are revealed by consideration of rawinsonde, aircraft and satellite data. The physical processes responsible for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclones are treated comprehensively, and illustrated with both qualitative and quantitative examples. The role of the planetary boundary layer, cumulus convection and radiation are all discussed in detail. Progress in numerical simulation of tropical cyclones is carefully reviewed. Modern, three-dimensional models succeed in simulating observed features such as the eye and spiral rain bands and in predicting storm motion over time intervals of three days. Current capabilities to predict and modify hurricanes and tropical cyclones are fully examined. The methods and difficulties of operational forecasting, the economic aspects of storm predictions, and the trends in accuracy of offical forecasts are all considered. The potential benefits and scientific problems associated with hurricane modification are discussed as part of a review of experimental and theoretical results on the consquences of seeding hurricane clouds. A unique feature of the book is a thorough treatment of the interactions between storm and ocean, with both observations and thery being integrated to provide a complete description.
The Project Stormfury modification theory, its physical basis, and the experiment design are described, and the possible effects of such experiments on tropical cyclone motion, rainfall, wind fields, and storm surge are examined. Studies of natural storm variability, exploratory experiments, sensitivity tests, numerical simulations, and theoretical calculations indicate that experiments conducted according to the Stormfury hypothesis could result in reductions of 10% to 15% in the maximum windspeed and associated damage reductions of 20% to 60%, with no apparent significant and/or detectable effect on storm motion or net rainfall accumulated areawide or at specific locations for a moving storm.
Extreme climatic events present society with significant challenges in a rapidly warming world. Ordinary citizens, the insurance industry and governments are concerned about the apparent increase in the frequency of weather and climate events causing extreme, and in some instances, catastrophic, impacts. Climate Extremes and Society focuses on the recent and potential future consequences of weather and climate extremes for different socioeconomic sectors. The book also examines actions that may enable society to better respond to climate variability. It provides examples of the impact of climate and weather extremes on society. How have these extremes varied in the past, and how might they change in the future? What type of efforts will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes? The book is designed for all policy-makers, engineers and scientists who have an interest in the effects of climate extremes on society.
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
著者原题无汉译名,J.莱特希尔,国科联国际减灾十年委员会主席