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This note will describe recent trends in income inequality in both advanced and developing economies and how tax and expenditure policies have impacted on these trends. It will discuss how tax and expenditure policies should be designed to bring about a more equitable distribution of income, as well as to protect the most vulnerable populations during periods of fiscal consolidation.
Since the fiscal reforms from the mid 90's, the fiscal policy is less re-distributive. The generosity of the social benefits and the progressivity in taxes is less each time, especially in developed economies. The objectives have moved towards fiscal balance, the dispersion of the risks caused by the volatility of exchange rates and the macroeconomic stability. In brief: the “fiscal consolidation”, understood as the pursuit of budget equilibrium through the reduction of the tax elusion and evasion; the reduction of public expenditure destined to social welfare; preference for the use of indirect taxes and the focalization of the programs to fight poverty. Consensus establishes that fiscal policy is the main instrument to improve income distribution; however, few are the works that focus on the evaluation of how such policy can also generate greater inequality in the distribution of income and wealth. New trends in fiscal policy favoring concentration of income and wealth, the neoliberal emphasis on rational economic behavior promotes the pursuit of fiscal balance, financial stability and low inflation at the expense of social welfare and well-being. The purpose of this paper is to show how fiscal policy has diminished its redistributive effects.
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The 2007-09 Great Recession has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt in many countries, triggering substantial fiscal adjustments. What are the distributional consequences of fiscal austerity measures? This is an important policy question. This paper analyzes the effects of fiscal policies on income inequality in a panel of advanced and emerging market economies over the last three decades, complemented by a case study of selected consolidation episodes. The paper shows that fiscal consolidations are likely to raise inequality through various channels including their effects on unemployment. Spending-based consolidations tend to worsen inequality more significantly, relative to tax-based consolidations. The composition of austerity measures also matters: progressive taxation and targeted social benefits and subsidies introduced in the context of a broader decline in spending can help offset some of the adverse distributional impact of consolidation. In addition, fiscal policy can favorably influence long-term trends in both inequality and growth by promoting education and training among low- and middle-income workers.
In this book, leading experts take a long-term view of the trends and policies of most relevance in achieving the structural readjustment required by the current crisis, which for too long has been viewed merely as an economic recession. A wide variety of issues are addressed, including the implications of the massive movement of wealth from advanced countries to emerging ones and the increasing income inequality evident within many countries. Prospects for growth toward the mid-century and beyond are discussed, with consideration of lessons from the past and the impact of various constraints, including corruption. The policies and reforms required to restore economic dynamism within the EU and more generally, to foster the “Good Economy” are discussed, recognizing the need for measures to promote innovation, entrepreneurship, well-being and high levels of environmental performance. The book comprises a selection of contributions presented at the XXV Villa Mondragone International Economic Seminar. For the past quarter of a century, this seminar has brought together leading experts to engage in debates on pressing economic questions. This book, based on the most recent gathering, will be of interest to all who are concerned about the challenges to growth, well-being and social inclusion that will have to be confronted in the coming decades.
At the global level, inequality has declined substantially over the past three decades, but within national boundaries, the picture is mixed: some countries have experienced a reduction in inequality while others, particularly advanced economies, have seen a significant increase that has, among other things, contributed to growing public backlash against globalization. Excessive levels of inequality can erode social cohesion, lead to political polarization, and ultimately lower economic growth, but whether inequality is excessive depends on country-specific factors, including the growth context in which inequality arises, along with societal preferences. This Fiscal Monitor focuses on how fiscal policy can help governments address high levels of inequality while minimizing potential trade-offs between efficiency and equity. It documents recent trends in income inequality, including inequality both between and within countries, then examines the redistributive role of fiscal policies over recent decades and underscores the importance of appropriate design to minimize any efficiency costs. It then focuses on some key components of fiscal redistribution: progressivity of income taxation, universal basic income, and public spending policies for achieving more equitable education and health outcomes. The analysis relies on the existing theoretical and empirical literature, IMF work on inequality and fiscal policy, country experiences, and new analytical work, including various static microsimulation analyses based on household survey data. Simulations using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to country-specific data and behavioral parameters illustrate the potential impact of alternative budget-neutral tax and transfer measures on income inequality and economic growth.
This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering inequality and an inability to sustain economic growth as two sides of the same coin. Central to the Fund’s mandate is providing advice that will enable members’ economies to grow on a sustained basis. But the Fund has rightly been cautious about recommending the use of redistributive policies given that such policies may themselves undercut economic efficiency and the prospects for sustained growth (the so-called “leaky bucket” hypothesis written about by the famous Yale economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s). This SDN follows up the previous SDN on inequality and growth by focusing on the role of redistribution. It finds that, from the perspective of the best available macroeconomic data, there is not a lot of evidence that redistribution has in fact undercut economic growth (except in extreme cases). One should be careful not to assume therefore—as Okun and others have—that there is a big tradeoff between redistribution and growth. The best available macroeconomic data do not support such a conclusion.
Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the complex links between growth, inequality, and poverty, with causation going in both directions. The evidence suggests that growth can be effective in reducing poverty, but its impact on inequality is ambiguous and depends on the underlying sources of growth. The impact of poverty and inequality on growth is likewise ambiguous, as several channels mediate the relationship. But most plausible mechanisms suggest that poverty and inequality reduce growth, at least in the long run. Policies play a role in shaping these relationships and those designed to improve equality of opportunity can simultaneously improve inclusiveness and growth.