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Changes in climate patterns and their impact on the physical environment can create profound effects on populations in parts of the world and present new challenges to global security and stability. Failure t o anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for con flict inherent in such failures . Because of the increasing importance of climate change on US security, the Defense Science Boa rd was charged with examining the need to adapt, manage, and mitigate the consequences of climate change. This report begins with an overview of the impacts of climate change over recent decades while recognizing uncertainty about the pace of future changes . It examines the political consequences of climate change as it relates to national and international security, with special attention to the African continent due to the v ulnerability of African nations with high potential to intersect with United States national interests . Within this context, the study examined the roles of the Department of Defense and the national security community writ large in responding to effects o f climate change in both the United States and in key areas of the globe
The final report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security offers important considerations for the Dept. of Defense (DOD) related to this subject. The task force examined the implications of climate change from a global perspective, with a special focus on the African continent, and makes recommendations that can improve the U.S. approach to addressing the many challenges of climate change. First, they identified a need for a strong climate information system database, managed by the DOD. Second, they recommend a whole of government approach to mitigating the effects of climate change and highlight the importance of engaging with international leaders in identifying global solutions. Climate change will only grow in concern for the U.S. and its security interests. This report offers guidance to the DOD on how to become a leader in mitigating and adapting to its growing effects. Figures. This is a print on demand report.
Changes in climate patterns and their impact on the physical environment can create profound effects on populations in parts of the world and present new challenges to global security and stability. Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures. This report begins with an overview of the impacts of climate change over recent decades while recognizing uncertainty about the pace of future changes. It examines the political consequences of climate change as it relates to national and international security, with special attention to the African continent due to the vulnerability of African nations with high potential to intersect with United States national interests. Within this context, the study examined the roles of the Department of Defense and the national security community writ large in responding to effects of climate change in both the United States and in key areas of the globe. The deliberations of the task force identified the urgent need for clear roles and policies throughout the US government addressing the consequences of climate change and produced a set of recommendations on how the US government can manage the near-term effects on populations and the longer-term need for adaptation that impacts US and international security interests. The recommendations include specific roles for the Department of Defense in helping both the United States and U.S. Africa Command address these challenges. The recommendations fall into five main areas: The need for developing a robust climate information system. Instituting water security as a core element of DOD strategy. Roles of the national security community, including the intelligence community, the Department of State, and the White House. Guidance and DOD organization to address the full range of international climate change-related issues and their impact on the evolution of DOD's missions. Combatant command roles, responsibilities, and capacities. The report emphasizes that the United States cannot enter into an open-ended commitment to dealing with the need to address the near term consequences of climate change or the longer term need for adapting to the change. The United States can provide needed expertise, leadership, and some level of resources where it is in the national interest to do so. To be effective, Department of Defense actions must be part of a comprehensive multi-department approach and in coordination with international efforts.
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
"Presents three scenarios of what the future may hold: expected, severe, and catastrophic and analyzes the security implications of each. Considers what can be learned from early civilizations confronted with natural disaster and asks what the largest emitters of greenhouse gases can do to reduce and manage future risks"--Provided by publisher.
In response to the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), the National Research Council appointed a committee operating under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board to study the national security implications of climate change for U.S. naval forces. In conducting this study, the committee found that even the most moderate current trends in climate, if continued, will present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. While the timing, degree, and consequences of future climate change impacts remain uncertain, many changes are already underway in regions around the world, such as in the Arctic, and call for action by U.S. naval leadership in response. The terms of reference (TOR) directed that the study be based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and other peer-reviewed assessment. Therefore, the committee did not address the science of climate change or challenge the scenarios on which the committee's findings and recommendations are based. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces addresses both the near- and long-term implications for U.S. naval forces in each of the four areas of the TOR, and provides corresponding findings and recommendations. This report and its conclusions are organized around six discussion areas-all presented within the context of a changing climate.
Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events--slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Experts discuss the risks global environmental change poses for the human security, including disaster and disease, violence, and increasing inequity. In recent years, scholars in international relations and other fields have begun to conceive of security more broadly, moving away from a state-centered concept of national security toward the idea of human security, which emphasizes the individual and human well-being. Viewing global environmental change through the lens of human security connects such problems as melting ice caps and carbon emissions to poverty, vulnerability, equity, and conflict. This book examines the complex social, health, and economic consequences of environmental change across the globe. In chapters that are both academically rigorous and policy relevant, the book discusses the connections of global environmental change to urban poverty, natural disasters (with a case study of Hurricane Katrina), violent conflict (with a study of the decade-long Nepalese civil war), population, gender, and development. The book makes clear the inadequacy of traditional understandings of security and shows how global environmental change is raising new, unavoidable questions of human insecurity, conflict, cooperation, and sustainable development. Contributors W. Neil Adger, Jennifer Bailey, Jon Barnett, Victoria Basolo, Hans Georg Bohle, Mike Brklacich, May Chazan, Chris Cocklin, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Indra de Soysa, Heather Goldsworthy, Betsy Hartmann, Robin M. Leichenko, Laura Little, Alexander López, Richard A. Matthew, Bryan McDonald, Eric Neumayer, Kwasi Nsiah-Gyabaah, Karen L. O'Brien, Marvin S. Soroos, Bishnu Raj Upreti