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This second ITF Transport Outlook continues building towards a full-fledged Transport Outlook, building upon the first Outlook (JTRC, 20081). The 2008 Outlook investigated the relation between expected GDP evolution and the demand for road transport, pointing out that transport demand and CO2-emissions could well turn out higher than commonly assumed given the projected evolution of GDP, and underlining the potential of improvements of fuel efficiency in controlling CO2-emissions from road transport. These topics were developed further in the "50 by 50 Global Fuel Economy Initiative".2 The 2009 Outlook considers two themes that are closely linked to the International Transport Forums's them for the 2009 meeting in Leipzig: Transport for a global economy - Challenges and opporturnities in the downturn. First, in Section 2, we focus on the evolution of GDP itself and how this evolution interacts with transport demand and investments in transport infrastructure. The analysis is a first brush at gauging the potential impacts of the economic and financial crisis. Specifically, we consider (a) the impact of the aggregate demand shock on the evolution of global GDP, (b) the need and potential for a rebalancing of global growth patterns, with their implications for trade and transport demand, and (c) the consequences of the widening funding gap for transport infrastructure investments. Second, in Sections 3 through 5, we discuss projections of the demand for road transport, aviation, and maritime transport. For road transport, more modest global growth leads to slower growth of the vehicle stock and of CO2-emissions, but the basic messages of the 2008 Outlook continue to hold. For aviation, we attempt to disentangle the effects of economic growth and of increased openness of markets on volume growth, and find that the latter is an important growth factor. For maritime transport, the focus is on likely development patterns and how they could be affected by the crisis, and how this does (not) affect recommendations for dealing with expected CO2-emissions.
Transportation contributes to roughly a fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, and as a growing sector of the economy, its contribution to climate change, if remained unchanged, could even grow. This is particularly true in the developing world, where the growth rates of air and ship transport are expected to exceed those of the EU, and worldwide objectives to curb greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 by sixty to eighty percent could be placed in serious jeopardy. This book addresses the key issues of controlling transportation growth and identifying and implementing measures that would significantly reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from transport while maintaining its vital role in generating prosperity and mobility for future generations. This book describes the challenge that transport constitutes today as well as its role in the future for climate policy. It will discuss and provide hands-on suggestions for transportation policy that will mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions from transport. The book is organized into five parts. Part One presents an overview of transport and climate policy in the context of the recent economic crisis. Part Two examines the problems and proposed solutions for curbing emissions from transport in industrialized countries while Parts Three and Four deal with the developing world, with a particular focus on India and China. Part Five discusses tested solutions and provides policy recommendations making this book of interest to a broad audience of both policy-makers and academics concerned with the role of transport in reducing global climate change.
The most comprehensive and richest study undertaken so far of the factors and conditions that will determine the scope and range of shipping and shipping activities in Arctic waters now and in the future. Furthermore, it is the first study comparing the three Arctic transportation corridors, covering a variety of interacting and interdependent factors such as: - geopolitics, military affairs, global warming, sea ice melting, international economic trends, resources, competing modes of transportation, environmental challenges, logistics, ocean law and regulations, corporate governance, jurisdictional matters and rights of indigenous peoples, arctic cruise tourism and marine insurance.
The ITF Transport Outlook 2013 presents and discusses global scenarios concerning the development of transport volumes through 2050. The analysis highlights the impact of alternative economic growth scenarios on passenger and freight flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation outside the OECD.
The ITF Transport Outlook examines the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050.
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This report provides ground-breaking, internationally comparable data on economic growth, inequalities and well-being at the city level in OECD countries, and a framework for action, to help national and local governments reorient policies towards more inclusive growth in cities.
The 2010 edition of the OECD Information Technology Outlook analyses the economic crisis and recovery, and suggests that the outlook for IT goods and services industries is good after weathering a turbulent economic period better than during the crisis at the beginning of the 2000s.