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China’s rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions—sometimes with perilous results. Can we predict the future by using the past? And, if so, what might history teach us? With Transition Scenarios, David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it. Despite recent interest in the topic, the probability and timing of a power transition—and the processes that might bring it about—remain woefully unclear. Rapkin and Thompson’s use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios.
From one of the world's leading experts on the history of energy, a rigorous examination of the transitions that structure our modern world--and the environmental reckoning that will mark its success or failure. What makes the modern world work? The answer to this deceptively simple question lies in four "grand transitions" of civilization--in populations, agriculture, energy, and economics--which have transformed the way we live. Societies that have undergone all four transitions emerge into an era of radically different population dynamics, food surpluses (and waste), abundant energy use, and expanding economic opportunities. Simultaneously, in other parts of the world, hundreds of millions remain largely untouched by these developments. Through erudite storytelling, Vaclav Smil investigates the fascinating and complex interactions of these transitions. He argues that the moral imperative to share modernity's benefits has become more acute with increasing economic inequality, but addressing this imbalance would make it exceedingly difficult to implement the changes necessary for the long-term preservation of the environment. Thus, managing the fifth transition--environmental changes from natural-resource depletion, biodiversity loss, and global warming--will determine the success or eventual failure of the grand transitions that have made the world we live in today.
For most of the vast span of human history, economic growth was all but nonexistent. Then, about two centuries ago, some nations began to emerge from this epoch of economic stagnation, experiencing sustained economic growth that led to significant increases in standards of living and profoundly altered the level and distribution of wealth, population, education, and health across the globe. The question ever since has been--why? This is the first book to put forward a unified theory of economic growth that accounts for the entire growth process, from the dawn of civilization to today. Oded Galor, who founded the field of unified growth theory, identifies the historical and prehistorical forces behind the differential transition timing from stagnation to growth and the emergence of income disparity around the world. Galor shows how the interaction between technological progress and population ultimately raised the importance of education in coping with the rapidly changing technological environment, brought about significant reduction in fertility rates, and enabled some economies to devote greater resources toward a steady increase in per capita income, paving the way for sustained economic growth. Presents a unified theory of economic growth from the dawn of civilization to today Explains the worldwide disparities in living standards and population we see today Provides a comprehensive overview of the three phases of the development process Analyzes the Malthusian theory and its empirical support Examines theories of demographic transition and their empirical significance Explores the interaction between economic development and human evolution
An advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic equilibrium models, with discussion of the implications for monetary and fiscal policy. This textbook offers an advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic general equilibrium models based on intertemporal optimization on the part of economic agents. The book treats macroeconomics as applied and policy-oriented general equilibrium analysis, examining a number of models, each of which is suitable for investigating specific issues but may be unsuitable for others. After presenting a brief survey of the evolution of macroeconomics and the key facts about long-run economic growth and aggregate fluctuations, the book introduces the main elements of the intertemporal approach through a series of two-period competitive general equilibrium models—the simplest possible intertemporal models. This sets the stage for the remainder of the book, which presents models of economic growth, aggregate fluctuations, and monetary and fiscal policy. The text focuses on a full analysis of a limited number of key intertemporal models, which are stripped down to essentials so that students can focus on the dynamic properties of the models. Exercises encourage students to try their hands at solving versions of the dynamic models that define modern macroeconomics. Appendixes review the main mathematical techniques needed to analyze optimizing dynamic macroeconomic models. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who have some knowledge of economic theory and mathematics for economists.
Turbulence is one of the key issues in tackling engineering flow problems. As powerful computers and accurate numerical methods are now available for solving the flow equations, and since engineering applications nearly always involve turbulence effects, the reliability of CFD analysis depends increasingly on the performance of the turbulence models. This series of symposia provides a forum for presenting and discussing new developments in the area of turbulence modelling and measurements, with particular emphasis on engineering-related problems. The papers in this set of proceedings were presented at the 5th International Symposium on Engineering Turbulence Modelling and Measurements in September 2002. They look at a variety of areas, including: Turbulence modelling; Direct and large-eddy simulations; Applications of turbulence models; Experimental studies; Transition; Turbulence control; Aerodynamic flow; Aero-acoustics; Turbomachinery flows; Heat transfer; Combustion systems; Two-phase flows. These papers are preceded by a section containing 6 invited papers covering various aspects of turbulence modelling and simulation as well as their practical application, combustion modelling and particle-image velocimetry.
This handbook offers readers various perspectives on globalization and multilateralism with Chinese characteristics. Its originality is derived from the hybrid approaches the handbook takes, where chapters provide complementary, intertwined, and multi-level analysis on the topic. Based on contributions of scholars and practitioners from a number of countries, the handbook helps readers to comprehend ongoing debates on the Belt and Road Initiative and global governance, within a shifting balance of world power, characterized by competing views between Western and Chinese norms, standards, values, and narratives. Split into three Parts, and consisting of 46 chapters, the handbook views globalization as comprehensive concept that benefits from the contributions of various disciplines such as geography, geo-economics, political science and international relations. In producing one of the most ambitious and updated outputs on the topic, the handbook as a whole seeks to discuss what globalization with Chinese characteristics looks like, and the role of the Belt and Road Initiative in this process.
An investigation of overheating HS-31 alloy to temperatures of 1,650 degrees, 1,800 degrees, 1,900 degrees, and 2,000 degrees F during the course of rupture tests 1,500 degrees F was carried out. The overheating was applied periodically for 2 minutes in most of the tests. The intent was to develop basic information on the effect of overheats on creep- rapture properties in order to assist in the evaluation of damage from overheats during gas- turbine operation.