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This paper examines the effect of trade reform on wages and unemployment in a two-sector, three-good economy in which labor is imperfectly mobile across sectors. Wages in the export sector are set so as to minimize turnover costs. The analysis shows that a reduction in tariffs, coupled with an adjustment in lump-sum taxes to equilibrate the government budget, lowers wages in all production sectors in the short and the medium run but has an ambiguous effect on unemployment. Although employment and production of exportables expand in the medium run, the unemployment rate may rise or fall depending on whether the elasticity of wages in the export sector with respect to wages in the nontraded goods sector is lower or greater than unity. Potentially adverse effects may be mitigated in the long run, however, as a result of induced shifts in the structure of production activities.
This paper examines the effect of trade reform on wages and unemployment in a two-sector, three-good economy in which labor is imperfectly mobile across sectors. Wages in the export sector are set so as to minimize turnover costs. The analysis shows that a reduction in tariffs, coupled with an adjustment in lump-sum taxes to equilibrate the government budget, lowers wages in all production sectors in the short and the medium run but has an ambiguous effect on unemployment. Although employment and production of exportables expand in the medium run, the unemployment rate may rise or fall depending on whether the elasticity of wages in the export sector with respect to wages in the nontraded goods sector is lower or greater than unity. Potentially adverse effects may be mitigated in the long run, however, as a result of induced shifts in the structure of production activities.
Economic theory and empirical research confirm that the rising international integration caused an increase in aggregate income at least for the industrialized countries, although trade liberalization is no Pareto improvement. In the empirical literature, there is a consensus that the international integration implies a destruction of low-skilled job vacancies and an increase in income, while the conclusions are mixed concerning the implication for the overall unemployment rate. This book seeks to find theoretical explanations to these empirical regularities. The book poses three questions: What are the implications of trade liberalization for the labor market in the presence of trade unions if we account for both firm and worker heterogeneity? What are the implications of a redistribution policy if the government chooses unemployment benefits to partially compensate the losers of trade liberalization?, and what is the optimal redistribution scheme for trade gains if the government explicitly takes into account the consequences for the income distribution? This book presents a rigorous theoretical analysis to answer the questions posed. Beside the well-known firm-selection effect on goods markets caused by trade liberalization, a selection process on the labor market -the worker-selection effect - is presented. The book also argues that if welfare is measured in the traditional manner, i.e. income per capita, compensating the loser of trade liberalization by paying unemployment benefits decreases welfare, but the intensity of the reduction differs with respect to the chosen funding of the unemployment benefits. Another significant contribution of this book is that if the objective function of the government, i.e. the modified welfare function, includes both aggregate income and income inequality, the redistribution of trade gains can lead to an increase in welfare.​
In this book, Paul Oslington underlines the contradiction between the prominence of job losses in political conflict over trade liberalization, and trade economists usually working with full employment models. This book is a comprehensive treatment of the benchmark competitive trade model with unemployment. It highlights the important linkages between trade and employment, providing analytical tools for participants in debates over trade liberalization. Global economy models, and empirically important cases where factor price equalization fails are considered for the first time. Questions addressed include: How do trading economies with unemployment respond to shocks such as terms of trade deteriorations, changes in labour market institutions or technological change? How does international migration affect employed and unemployed workers? How are trade patterns and volumes modified by unemployment? Is trade liberalisation always gainful when there is unemployment? How are European and American labour markets linked? How does the entry of newly industrializing countries into manufactured goods markets affect unemployment and wages in different parts of the world? What is the impact of harmonization of international labour standards on different groups in different parts of the world? This work is a basis for much needed empirical and policy work on trade and unemployment. It will strongly appeal to researchers, students and academics with an interest in international economics and international business. Economists in government and international agencies will also find much to interest them within this book.
A survey of more than 50 empirical papers shows that the adjustment costs of trade liberalization are small relative to the benefits. Moreover, manufacturing employment typically increases with trade liberalization. The limited data suggest that trade liberalization reduces poverty.Virtually all of the studies that quantify the adjustment costs of trade liberalization relative to the benefits point to the conclusion that adjustment costs are small in relation to the benefits of trade liberalization.The explanation for low adjustment costs is that: These costs are typically short term and end when workers find a job, but the benefits grow as the economy does. Unemployment doesn't last long, especially where workers' pay was not substantial in the original job. Normal labor turnover often exceeds job displacement from trade liberalization.Moreover, studies that examine the impact of trade liberalization on employment in developing countries find there is little decline - and usually an increase - in manufacturing employment in developing countries a year after trade liberalization, for three reasons: Developing countries tend to have comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, and trade liberalization tends to favor labor. Interindustry shifts occur after trade liberalization, which minimizes the dislocation of factors of production. In many industries normal labor turnover exceeds dislocation from trade liberalization, so downsizing, when necessary, can be accomplished without much forced unemployment. Matusz and Tarr recommend a uniform tariff to minimize special-interest lobbying for protection since it diffuses the benefits of protection.This paper - a product of Trade, Development Research Group - is part of larger effort in the group to examine how trade liberalization affects growth and poverty reduction. David Tarr may be contacted at dtarr @worldbank.org.
A survey of more than 50 empirical papers shows that the adjustment costs of trade liberalization are small relative to the benefits. Moreover, manufacturing employment typically increases with trade liberalization. The limited data suggests that trade liberalization reduces poverty.
While most standard economic models of international trade assume full employment, Carl Davidson and Steven Matusz have argued over the past two decades that this reliance on full-employment modeling is misleading and ill-equipped to tackle many important trade-related questions. This book brings together the authors' pioneering work in creating models that more accurately reflect the real-world connections between international trade and labor markets. The material collected here presents the theoretical and empirical foundations of equilibrium unemployment modeling, which the authors and their collaborators developed to give researchers and policymakers a more realistic picture of how international trade affects labor markets, and of how transnational differences in labor markets affect international trade. They address the shortcomings of standard models, describe the empirics that underlie equilibrium unemployment models, and illustrate how these new models can yield vital insights into the relationship between international trade and employment. This volume also includes an indispensable general introduction as well as concise section introductions that put the authors' work in context and reveal the thinking behind their ideas. Economists are only now realizing just how important these ideas are, making this book essential reading for researchers and students.
"The substantial literature investigating the links between trade, trade policy, and labor market outcomes-both returns to labor and employment-has generated a number of stylized facts, but many open questions remain. This paper surveys the subset of the literature focusing on trade policy and integration into the world economy. Although in the longer run trade opportunities can have a major impact in creating more productive and higher paying jobs, this literature tends to take employment as given. A common finding is that much of the shorter run impacts of trade and reforms involve reallocation of labor or wage impacts within sectors. This reflects a pattern of expansion of more productive firms-especially export-oriented or suppliers to exporters-and contraction and adjustment of less productive enterprises in sectors that become subject to greater import competition. Wage responses to trade and trade reforms are generally greater than employment impacts, but trade can only explain a small fraction of the general increase in wage inequality observed in both industrial and developing countries in recent decades. A feature of the literature survey is that the focus is almost exclusively on industries producing goods. Given the importance of service industries as a source of employment and determinants of competitiveness, the paper argues that one priority area for future research is to study the employment effects of services trade and investment reforms. "--World Bank web site.
While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high intranational migration, as theory indicates that labor mobility could reduce it. We focus on the 2004-14 period of trade liberalization in Peru (a major beneficiary of trade integration), which allows for methodological improvements relative to similar studies. We find that districts competing with liberalized imports experienced significantly lower growth in consumption per capita despite some emigration in response to increased import competition. This underscores the need to support the “losers of trade liberalization” even amidst high labor mobility.
We study the welfare implications of a bilateral free trade agreement. The model is based on the recent trade literature that considers search and matching frictions in the labor market. We extend the model by incorporating country-level heterogeneity in terms of production technology, population, and productivity endowment. Model simulation results show a simultaneous tariff cut between symmetric countries to reduce unemployment rates and increase prices in the product market due to higher long run demand, while nevertheless benefiting the economy owing to a more rapid rise in consumer income. In the case of asymmetric countries, we find that larger gains from greater openness to trade accrue to a country with (relatively) more elastic supply occasioned by capital-intensive production technology that accommodates more flexible adjustments to output in response to increased demand. We calibrate the model to Korean and Japanese data in order to assess the expected outcome of the potential trade liberalization between those countries. With a scenario of symmetric level of trade liberalization (in terms of trade cost reduction), when we assume the same population size in a counterfactual way, we find Japan to receive greater benefits from the opening because its relatively more capital intensive production allow for quicker output adjustment upon trade liberalization. When we presume, however, that Japan’s population is 2.5 times that of Korea, the results show Korea to enjoy a slightly more surplus due to the market size Executive Summary 1. Introduction 2. Trade Model with Labor Market Friction 2.1. Environment 3. Simulation Results 3.1. Trade Liberalization between Symmetric Countries 3.2. Trade Liberalization between Asymmetric Countries 3.2.1. Difference in output elasticity with respect to labor 3.2.2. Difference in population 3.2.3. Difference in productivity 4. Calibration of Korea-Japan FTA 4.1. Background 4.2. Parametrization 4.3. Results 5. Conclusion References