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This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
This paper studies the effect of sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors on growth during the period 1970-2010. We find that there are bad and good (or not so bad) debt restructurings for growth. While growth generally declines in the aftermath of a sovereign debt restructuring, agreements that allow countries to exit a default spell (final restructurings) are associated with improving growth. The impact can be significant. In general, three years after restructuring, growth is about 5 percent lower compared to countries that did not face restructuring over the same period. The exception is for final restructurings, which result in positive growth in the years immediately after the restructuring. Final restructurings tend to be better for growth because they reduce countries’ debt, with the strongest effect for countries that exit restructurings with relatively low debt levels.
Sovereign debt restructurings have been shown to influence the dynamics of imports and exports. This paper shows that the impact can vary substantially depending on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. We document that countries with post-default restructurings experience on average: (i) a more severe and protracted decline in imports, (ii) a larger fall in exports, and (iii) a sharper and more prolonged decline in both GDP, investment and real exchange rate than preemptive cases. These stylized facts are confirmed by panel regressions and local projection estimates, and a range of robustness checks including for the endogeneity of the restructuring strategy. Our findings suggest that a country’s choice of how to go about restructuring its debt can have major implications for the costs it incurs from restructuring.
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
This paper takes stock of past episodes of debt restructuring and reviews the relevant literature. Based on cross-country experience from the late 1990s through 2010 of emerging markets it offers some stylized facts.
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
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High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
The new second edition of Debt Restructuring provides detailed legal analysis of international corporate, banking, and sovereign debt restructuring, from the perspective of both creditors and debtors. It sets out practical guidance to help practitioners, policy-makers and academics to understand current developments in debt restructuring, and provides solutions for creditors holding distressed debt and debtor options in a distressed scenario. The Corporate Debt section includes a number of very significant changes such as the UK Supreme Court decision in Eurosail and the disapproval of the "point of no return" test for balance sheet insolvency or the endorsement of the Cheyne Finance decision on cashflow. The changes in treatment of schemes of arrangement since with the decision in Rodenstock are reflected as are the Recast European Insolvency Regulation (EIR) and the Supreme Court decision in Rubin. In the US chapter the new edition considers the limitations on bankruptcy court jurisdiction in Stern v. Marshall and, in the RadLax case, the right of secured creditors to credit bid in a sale of their collateral under a chapter 11 plan. Other significant case law includes consideration of the various safe harbour provisions of the Bankruptcy Code relating to derivative and other financial instruments and cases concerning the effect of foreign court orders in the US. In the Bank Resolution section, the UK part also has been substantially amended to reflect the new system of macro and micro prudential oversight with the establishment of the PRA, FCA, FPC, and the FSCS. Additionally it reflects changes introduced by the Financial Services Act 2012 and by the Financial Services (Banking Reform) Act 2013. Additionally there is a new chapter in this part on the EU framework on the resolution of banks and financial institutions which analyses and explains initiatives such as SRM, and the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive. The US chapter reflects changes in Fannie and Freddie conservatorships, the FDIC's SPE strategy under Dodd-Frank, the proposed GLAC requirements, and resolution plan filings. In the Sovereign Debt section, there is detailed coverage of the New York litigation on the pari passu litigation and its interpretation in sovereign debt contracts. Also, this section of the book analyses the adoption of single-limb CACs in the aftermath of the Greek restructuring as well as the proposal for creditor engagement clauses. It also provides full analysis of the EU architecture implemented to prevent a sovereign debt crisis, including the creation of new stabilization mechanisms (EFSF and ESM), and the challenges presented to the single-currency area.