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This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.
Does globalisation affect economic stability? And if so, how? The interest of the book is in supposed effects of globalisation on macroeconomic volatility. Globalisation in economic terms can be defined as international integration of goods and factor markets. During the last decades, goods trade and financial flows have risen strikingly. Macroeconomic volatility can refer to several aggregates such as output and its components, prices and employment. During the "Great Moderation," variability of economic growth and inflation rates has changed significantly. The first part focuses on the possible effect of international goods market integration on output volatility. Three candidate mechanisms are theoretically introduced and empirically tested. Those channels relate to external risk, offshoring and sudden stops. The second part describes other potential determinants of output volatility, such as the international integration of financial markets, monetary and fiscal policy, and shocks. Each determinant is theoretically described and empirically revised. The importance of globalisation relative to other sources in affecting output volatility is evaluated. The summarised findings of the analysis: A careful thesis about effects of globalisation on output volatility should be differentiated along several dimensions. Firstly, globalisation of goods and financial markets must be distinguished. Secondly, even for international goods trade various mechanisms affect the volatility of output differently. Thirdly, for each channel the direction and weight of the effect depend on country characteristics. In a conclusion the author offers alternative ways of interpretation for economic policy.
The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. Using a comprehensive new data set, we document that, while the basic negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other controls, the estimated coefficient on the interaction between volatility and trade integration is significantly positive. We find a similar, although less significant, result for the interaction of financial integration with volatility.
This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.
The increasingly integrated global economy presents both opportunities and challenges to national and international policymakers. Global economic integration is widely thought to improve the allocation of resources, promote technological transfer, and enhance living standards. But, at the same time, economic integration has frequently been associated with growing trade imbalances, increased financial market volatility, and less effective domestic macroeconomic policies.To identify domestic and international policies that will help nations around the world achieve the greatest net benefits from global integration, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City sponsored a symposium, titled "Global Economic Integration: Opportunities and Challenges," at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 24-26, 2000. The symposium brought together a distinguished group of central bankers, academics, and financial market representatives to discuss these issues.
This paper empirically studies the effect of instrumental and institutional stabilization of the exchange rate on the integration of goods markets. An instrumental stabilization of the exchange rate is accomplished through intervention in the foreign exchange market, or by monetary policies. An institutional stabilization, is an adoption a currency board or a common currency. In contrast to the literature that employs data on the volume of trade, an important novelty of this paper is the use of a 3-dimensional panel of prices of 95 very disaggregated goods (e.g., light bulbs) in 83 cities from around the world from 1990 to 2000. We find that goods market integration is increasing over time and is inversely related to distance, exchange rate variability, and tariff barriers. In addition, the impact of an institutional stabilization of the exchange rate provides a stimulus to goods market integration that goes far beyond an instrumental stabilization. Among the institutional arrangements, long-term currency unions demonstrate greater integration than more recent currency boards. All of them can improve their integration further relative to a U.S. benchmark.
International economic integration is a topic upon which both academics and policy-makers are focusing a great deal of attention. This has perhaps been most marked in western Europe, given the establishing of the inter nal market and the prospects for an economic and monetary union. In parallel with the movement toward widening and deeping of western European economic integration, we find an increased integration of eastern Europe to world trade and finance as well as regional integration in North America and in East Asia. The book on hand provides a collection of recent research by leading scholars and practicians in this field. It is divided into three parts. The first part deals with some theoretical aspects of international integration, the second and the third part attend to implications of concrete forms of international integration inside and outside Europe. Part I starts with a neoclassical analysis of the impacts of factor-market integration by Franz Peter Lang. He investigates the effects on production level, production structure, demand level and structure of external trade of a "small integration area". Lang shows that the specific welfare effects of factor-market integration can only be realized if and only if external trade (between the integration area and the rest of the world) is increased too.
Trade costs are known to be a major obstacle to international economic integration. Following the approach of New Open Economy Macroeconomics, this paper explores the effects of international trade costs in a micro-founded general equilibrium model that allows for different degrees of exchange rate pass-through. Trade costs are shown to create an endogenous home bias in consumption and the model performs well in matching empirical trade shares for OECD countries. In addition, trade costs reduce cross-country output and consumption correlations, and they magnify exchange rate volatility. Trade costs turn a monetary expansion into a beggar-thy-neighbor policy.
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.