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Tariffs and other policy distortions typically lower real national income relative to what it otherwise would have been for any given rate of factor accumulation. Even while lowering real income, however, policy distortions may raise an economy's real measured growth rate and so, somewhat deceivingly, give the impression that national welfare has benefited from things like tariff protection. This would be an incorrect conclusion. This paper discusses the issue of how protection can affect the rate of growth for a small, open economy. As shown by Johnson (1970), in the presence of exogenously given factor accumulation, tariffs either raise or lower an economy's growth rate (measured by the change in the value of output at world prices), relative to the no-distortion growth rate. We also discuss the relevance of this result for tariff uniformity, "tariff jumping" foreign direct investment, and the empirical literature on trade and growth. Finally we use a numerical simulation model of Egypt to assess whether the costs of its tax distortions have increased or declined over time.
Bibliographical footnotes. Optimal trade intervention in the presence of domestic distortions, by H.G. Johnson.--Equalization by trade of the interest rate along with the real wage, by P.A. Samuelson.--On the equivalence of tariffs and quotas, by J. Bhagwati.--Tariff-cutting techniques in the Kennedy round, by R.E. Baldwin.--Some aspects of policies for freer trade, by B. Ohlin.--"Vent for surplus" models of trade and growth, by R.E. Caves.--International, National, regional, and local industries, by J. Tinbergen.--The multiplier if imports are for investments, by W.F. Stolper.--Trade, speculation, and the forward exchange rate, by P.B. Kenen.--Monetary stability as a precondition for economic integration, by R. Kamitz.--Adjustment, compensatory correction, and financing of imbalances in international payments, by F. Machlup.--Interest rates and the balance of payments: an analysis of the Swiss experience, by J. Niehans. Germany's persistent balance-of-payments disequilibrium, by C.P. Kindleberger.--Competition and growth: the lesson of the United States balance of payments, by E. Sohmen.
The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.