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This first book of a three-volume study examines the way trade policies in developing countries affect the level and composition of employment. There is special emphasis on the effects of import substitution policies that attempt to make a country self-sufficient by producing local substitutes for imports, as compared with policies that further the expansion of imports. Ten countries are studied: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, the Ivory Coast, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, and Uruguay. The contributors to the volume analyze the link between trade strategies and employment within a common framework, and the analyses of trade policy include the level and structure of protection, the relation of trade policy to labor demand, the labor intensiveness of trade, and the extent of distortions in factor markets and their effects on trade.
Jobs provide higher earnings and better benefits as countries grow, but they are also a driver of development. Poverty falls as people work their way out of hardship and as jobs empowering women lead to greater investments in children. Efficiency increases as workers get better at what they do, as more productive jobs appear, and less productive ones disappear. Societies flourish as jobs bring together people from different ethnic and social backgrounds and provide alternatives to conflict. Jobs are thus more than a byproduct of economic growth. They are transformational —they are what we earn, what we do, and even who we are. High unemployment and unmet job expectations among youth are the most immediate concerns. But in many developing countries, where farming and self-employment are prevalent and safety nets are modest are best, unemployment rates can be low. In these countries, growth is seldom jobless. Most of their poor work long hours but simply cannot make ends meet. And the violation of basic rights is not uncommon. Therefore, the number of jobs is not all that matters: jobs with high development payoffs are needed. Confronted with these challenges, policy makers ask difficult questions. Should countries build their development strategies around growth, or should they focus on jobs? Can entrepreneurship be fostered, especially among the many microenterprises in developing countries, or are entrepreneurs born? Are greater investments in education and training a prerequisite for employability, or can skills be built through jobs? In times of major crises and structural shifts, should jobs, not just workers, be protected? And is there a risk that policies supporting job creation in one country will come at the expense of jobs in other countries? The World Development Report 2013: Jobs offers answers to these and other difficult questions by looking at jobs as drivers of development—not as derived labor demand—and by considering all types of jobs—not just formal wage employment. The Report provides a framework that cuts across sectors and shows that the best policy responses vary across countries, depending on their levels of development, endowments, demography, and institutions. Policy fundamentals matter in all cases, as they enable a vibrant private sector, the source of most jobs in the world. Labor policies can help as well, even if they are less critical than is often assumed. Development policies, from making smallholder farming viable to fostering functional cities to engaging in global markets, hold the key to success.
The NBER project on alternative trade strategies and employment analyzed the extent to which employment and income distribution are affected by the choice of trade strategies and by the interaction of trade policies with domestic policies and market distortions. This book, the third and final volume to come from that project, brings together the theory underlying the trade strategies-employment relation and the empirical evidence emanating from the project.
Factor Supply and Substitution, the second in a three-volume study entitled Trade and Employment in Developing Countries, extends the analysis of trade regimes and employment both in depth for single countries and through cross-country analyses. It provides important new evidence of the effects of different trade policies and of the effects of the various factors that make up these policies—exchange rates, wages, social insurance and other taxes, credit, prices, and so on. All six studies reflect a carefully coordinated research strategy that has been carried out by a first-rate team. The researchers combine technical expertise with specialized knowledge of the individual countries.
This volume explores the interactions between economic and political reform in developing countries and eastern Europe. Over the past decade there have been significant moves both towards economic reform - essentially involving a greater role for the market and a lesser role for the state - and political reform, with important steps taken towards democratic forms of government. In some areas political change preceded economic reform (as in much of eastern Europe), while elsewhere economic and political reform have gone hand in hand, often as a result of external pressure. The essays cover a wide range of experience of economic and political reforms, from which some general lessons emerge. The most important one is that political and economic reforms interact in complex ways, with political reform often acting to slow down or even reverse economic reform. Secondly, it is shown that the state has an important role to play in guiding reform and preventing market excesses.
For dozens of developing countries, the financial upheavals of the 1980s have set back economic development by a decade or more. Poverty in those countries has intensified as they struggle under the burden of an enormous external debt. In 1988, more than six years after the onset of the crisis, almost all the debtor countries were still unable to borrow in the international capital markets on normal terms. Moreover, the world financial system has been disrupted by the prospect of widespread defaults on those debts. Because of the urgency of the present crisis, and because similar crises have recurred intermittently for at least 175 years, it is important to understand the fundamental features of the international macroeconomy and global financial markets that have contributed to this repeated instability. This project on developing country debt, undertaken by the National Bureau of Economic Research, provides a detailed analysis of the ongoing developing country debt crisis. The project focuses on the middle-income developing countries, particularly those in Latin America and East Asia, although many lessons of the study should apply as well to other, poorer debtor countries. The project analyzes the crisis from two perspectives, that of the international financial system as a whole (volume 1) and that of individual debtor countries (volumes 2 and 3). This third volume contains lengthy and detailed case studies of four very different Asian countries—Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines.
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
Developing countries typically have wage rates that are a small fraction of those in developed countries. Trade theories traditionally attributed this difference to two factors: the relative abundance of the labor supply in the two countries and the relative value of the goods produced. These factors, however, inadequately explain the full differential in almost every comparison of developed and developing countries since the second World War. Providing an important and original perspective for understanding both the development process and policies aimed at raising the standard of living in poorer nations, Perspectives on Trade and Development gathers sixteen of Anne O. Krueger's most important essays on international trade and development economics. Her essays discuss the relationships between trade strategies and development; the links between factor endowments, developing countries' policies, and trade strategies in terms of their growth; the role of economic policy in development; and the international economic environment in which development efforts are taking place. Her analyses are extended to trade and development policies generally, and account for a substantial part of the residue unexplained by past theories. This insightful contribution by an influential scholar will be essential reading for all scholars of trade and development.