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This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap. When income falls, consumption falls, and savings rise, as people rebuild their past wealth. Households will not spend more until they fully recover what they lost. The revised Phillips Curve explains that current inflation depends on the cumulative difference between current income and past income. This new theory is tested and validated by data for US since 1960 to date and for 35 OECD countries from 1990 to date. A number of policy implications are derived from these results. The book calls for an optimal policy mix between monetary policy and fiscal policy; it also discusses the coronavirus crisis as an extreme case of defensive expectations.
Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.
To capitalise on the new international resolve epitomised by COP21 and the agreement on the universal Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires a renewed effort to promote new policy thinking and new approaches to the great challenges ahead. Responding to new challenges means we have to adopt more ambitious frameworks, design more effective tools, and propose more precise policies that will take account of the complex and multidimensional nature of the challenges. The goal is to develop a better sense of how economies really work and to articulate strategies which reflect this understanding. The OECD’s New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC) exercise challenges our assumptions and our understanding about the workings of the economy. This collection from OECD Insights summarises opinions from inside and outside the Organisation on how NAEC can contribute to achieving the SDGs, and describes how the OECD is placing its statistical, monitoring and analytical capacities at the service of the international community. The authors also consider the transformation of the world economy that will be needed and the long-term “tectonic shifts” that are affecting people, the planet, global productivity, and institutions.
This is a thoroughly revised and expanded version of an earlier edition. Cornwall builds an economic theory and makes policy recommendations on the central issues of economic growth, full employment, stagnation, inflation, and unemployment all developed within a Post Keynesian framework. The revision carries the analysis through to the present day with the core theme being the challenge of high unemployment as the cost for conventional anti-inflationary policy.
This study of macroeconomics combines treatment of opposing theories with a presentation of evidence to point the way toward a reconstructed macro research and policy programme.
The Wage Curve casts doubt on some of the most important ideas in macroeconomics, labor economics, and regional economics. According to macroeconomic orthodoxy, there is a relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of wages. According to orthodoxy in labor economics and regional economics an area's wage is positively related to the amount of joblessness in the area. The Wage Curve suggests that both these beliefs are incorrect. Blanchflower and Oswald argue that the stable relationship is a downward-sloping convex curve linking local unemployment and the level of pay. Their study, one of the most intensive in the history of social science, is based on random samples that provide computerized information on nearly four million people from sixteen countries. Throughout, the authors systematically present evidence and possible explanations for their empirical law of economics.
Over the last 30 years, Economic Policy has strived to produce policy relevant and rigorous analyses of the economic challenges of the time. A number of articles have been highly influential, shaping thinking among academic economists and policymakers. This volume brings together key historic articles that still resonate today. It provides academics with important research markers, and also provides students (and their teachers) with a 'reader' that demonstrates how the field of economics progresses by responding to challenges of the time. It will also inspire a new generation of students and academics with a recollection of how some of today's most influential economists made early contributions.
This book discusses ways to improve macroeconomic policy in the context of the various macroeconomic problems of the past two decades, with the chapters having been written at various times over that period. It emphasises the need to find the best combinations of monetary policy and different forms of taxation and government outlays to achieve high employment and low inflation. There is a concluding chapter discussing the special problems that arise when inflation has become low, zero or even negative.
The OECD Employment Outlook provides an annual assessment of labour market developments and prospects in Member countries. Each issue contains an overall analysis of the latest market trends and short-term forecasts, and examines key labour market developments. Reference statistics are included.