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This book gives you a step-by-step introduction to analysing time series using the open source software R. Each time series model is motivated with practical applications, and is defined in mathematical notation. Once the model has been introduced it is used to generate synthetic data, using R code, and these generated data are then used to estimate its parameters. This sequence enhances understanding of both the time series model and the R function used to fit the model to data. Finally, the model is used to analyse observed data taken from a practical application. By using R, the whole procedure can be reproduced by the reader. All the data sets used in the book are available on the website http://staff.elena.aut.ac.nz/Paul-Cowpertwait/ts/. The book is written for undergraduate students of mathematics, economics, business and finance, geography, engineering and related disciplines, and postgraduate students who may need to analyse time series as part of their taught programme or their research.
Learn how to apply the principles of machine learning to time series modeling with this indispensable resource Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is an incisive and straightforward examination of one of the most crucial elements of decision-making in finance, marketing, education, and healthcare: time series modeling. Despite the centrality of time series forecasting, few business analysts are familiar with the power or utility of applying machine learning to time series modeling. Author Francesca Lazzeri, a distinguished machine learning scientist and economist, corrects that deficiency by providing readers with comprehensive and approachable explanation and treatment of the application of machine learning to time series forecasting. Written for readers who have little to no experience in time series forecasting or machine learning, the book comprehensively covers all the topics necessary to: Understand time series forecasting concepts, such as stationarity, horizon, trend, and seasonality Prepare time series data for modeling Evaluate time series forecasting models’ performance and accuracy Understand when to use neural networks instead of traditional time series models in time series forecasting Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is full real-world examples, resources and concrete strategies to help readers explore and transform data and develop usable, practical time series forecasts. Perfect for entry-level data scientists, business analysts, developers, and researchers, this book is an invaluable and indispensable guide to the fundamental and advanced concepts of machine learning applied to time series modeling.
Deep learning methods offer a lot of promise for time series forecasting, such as the automatic learning of temporal dependence and the automatic handling of temporal structures like trends and seasonality. With clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons you’ll discover how to develop deep learning models for your own time series forecasting projects.
The past decades have transformed the world of statistical data analysis, with new methods, new types of data, and new computational tools. Modern Statistics with R introduces you to key parts of this modern statistical toolkit. It teaches you: Data wrangling - importing, formatting, reshaping, merging, and filtering data in R. Exploratory data analysis - using visualisations and multivariate techniques to explore datasets. Statistical inference - modern methods for testing hypotheses and computing confidence intervals. Predictive modelling - regression models and machine learning methods for prediction, classification, and forecasting. Simulation - using simulation techniques for sample size computations and evaluations of statistical methods. Ethics in statistics - ethical issues and good statistical practice. R programming - writing code that is fast, readable, and (hopefully!) free from bugs. No prior programming experience is necessary. Clear explanations and examples are provided to accommodate readers at all levels of familiarity with statistical principles and coding practices. A basic understanding of probability theory can enhance comprehension of certain concepts discussed within this book. In addition to plenty of examples, the book includes more than 200 exercises, with fully worked solutions available at: www.modernstatisticswithr.com.
Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.
Summary Deep Learning with Python introduces the field of deep learning using the Python language and the powerful Keras library. Written by Keras creator and Google AI researcher François Chollet, this book builds your understanding through intuitive explanations and practical examples. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology Machine learning has made remarkable progress in recent years. We went from near-unusable speech and image recognition, to near-human accuracy. We went from machines that couldn't beat a serious Go player, to defeating a world champion. Behind this progress is deep learning—a combination of engineering advances, best practices, and theory that enables a wealth of previously impossible smart applications. About the Book Deep Learning with Python introduces the field of deep learning using the Python language and the powerful Keras library. Written by Keras creator and Google AI researcher François Chollet, this book builds your understanding through intuitive explanations and practical examples. You'll explore challenging concepts and practice with applications in computer vision, natural-language processing, and generative models. By the time you finish, you'll have the knowledge and hands-on skills to apply deep learning in your own projects. What's Inside Deep learning from first principles Setting up your own deep-learning environment Image-classification models Deep learning for text and sequences Neural style transfer, text generation, and image generation About the Reader Readers need intermediate Python skills. No previous experience with Keras, TensorFlow, or machine learning is required. About the Author François Chollet works on deep learning at Google in Mountain View, CA. He is the creator of the Keras deep-learning library, as well as a contributor to the TensorFlow machine-learning framework. He also does deep-learning research, with a focus on computer vision and the application of machine learning to formal reasoning. His papers have been published at major conferences in the field, including the Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), the Conference and Workshop on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), and others. Table of Contents PART 1 - FUNDAMENTALS OF DEEP LEARNING What is deep learning? Before we begin: the mathematical building blocks of neural networks Getting started with neural networks Fundamentals of machine learning PART 2 - DEEP LEARNING IN PRACTICE Deep learning for computer vision Deep learning for text and sequences Advanced deep-learning best practices Generative deep learning Conclusions appendix A - Installing Keras and its dependencies on Ubuntu appendix B - Running Jupyter notebooks on an EC2 GPU instance
Written for those who need an introduction, Applied Time Series Analysis reviews applications of the popular econometric analysis technique across disciplines. Carefully balancing accessibility with rigor, it spans economics, finance, economic history, climatology, meteorology, and public health. Terence Mills provides a practical, step-by-step approach that emphasizes core theories and results without becoming bogged down by excessive technical details. Including univariate and multivariate techniques, Applied Time Series Analysis provides data sets and program files that support a broad range of multidisciplinary applications, distinguishing this book from others.
The Long Short-Term Memory network, or LSTM for short, is a type of recurrent neural network that achieves state-of-the-art results on challenging prediction problems. In this laser-focused Ebook, finally cut through the math, research papers and patchwork descriptions about LSTMs. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorial lessons you will discover what LSTMs are, and how to develop a suite of LSTM models to get the most out of the method on your sequence prediction problems.
Some of the key mathematical results are stated without proof in order to make the underlying theory acccessible to a wider audience. The book assumes a knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra, and elementary statistics. The emphasis is on methods and the analysis of data sets. The logic and tools of model-building for stationary and non-stationary time series are developed in detail and numerous exercises, many of which make use of the included computer package, provide the reader with ample opportunity to develop skills in this area. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Additional topics include harmonic regression, the Burg and Hannan-Rissanen algorithms, unit roots, regression with ARMA errors, structural models, the EM algorithm, generalized state-space models with applications to time series of count data, exponential smoothing, the Holt-Winters and ARAR forecasting algorithms, transfer function models and intervention analysis. Brief introducitons are also given to cointegration and to non-linear, continuous-time and long-memory models. The time series package included in the back of the book is a slightly modified version of the package ITSM, published separately as ITSM for Windows, by Springer-Verlag, 1994. It does not handle such large data sets as ITSM for Windows, but like the latter, runs on IBM-PC compatible computers under either DOS or Windows (version 3.1 or later). The programs are all menu-driven so that the reader can immediately apply the techniques in the book to time series data, with a minimal investment of time in the computational and algorithmic aspects of the analysis.
Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance