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In this analysis, volume-flow and market-based models of the western Oregon timber sector are developed. The volume-flow model finds the maximum, long-term, even-flow level of cut for each ownership (industry and non-industrial private forest). The market model simulates the interaction of log demand and timber owner supply to find the market balancing harvest quantity and log price. In both models, owner decisions on the intensity of timber management (silviculture) are made within the models consistent with owner objectives (volume or wealth maximization). Model projections suggest that western Oregon forest industry owners could sustain cut at recent (1995-1999) levels, stemming the 40-yr declining trend in their harvest. Nonindustrial private forest owners could raise harvests to near historical peak levels. These harvests could be maintained over the next five decades with no reduction in the growing stock inventory. Management would continue to shift toward the more intensive forms on both ownerships. The average age of the inventory would decline over the projection. Simulated riparian protection policies lower harvest roughly in proportion to the land base reduction and raise log prices. A policy to increase the minimum age of clearcut harvests would lead to large near-term reductions in industrial harvest but less marked reductions on NIPF lands. Prices would rise sharply in the near term. Over the longer term, the policy would act to expand inventory, raising harvest, and to depress prices.
The rural areas of the Pacific Northwest region have been economically suffering for over ten years. The urban areas have been economically suffering for over four years. This book describes how we can create economically and environmentally sound jobs by utilizing our greatest natural resource in the Pacific Northwest region ? our forests.We can choose to embrace a future to create good jobs in our region that will withstand the rigors of global job outsourcing and improve our environment. Six points to economic securityPoint 1: The United States and the Pacific Northwest have a ?lack of good jobs? economic recovery.Point 2: Global outsourcing is one of the factors for the loss of good jobs. America is increasingly unable to create good jobs that are able to compete against low wages from Asia.Point 3: Over three quarters of Forest Service lands in Oregon and Washington are at moderate to high risk from destructive wildfires because of large accumulations of brush and small trees.Point 4: The federal government spent over $1.5 billion in both 2000 and 2002 to suppress wildfires.Point 5: Rather than spend increasing sums of money on wildfire suppression, the federal government should sell excess small trees on our public lands to reduce the fuels accumulation. The sale of the trees would generate funds to pay for more fuels treatment.Point 6: Private companies and public agencies would hire Americans to work in the woods to reduce the fuels buildup and to process the woody biomass in the mills and ethanol conversion plants. We could use the ethanol fuel to power our vehicles. We would reduce our 60% dependence on imported oil from the politically unstable Middle East and other foreign countries. We could produce more lumber to reduce our 30% dependence on imported lumber from other countries. We could reduce the threat of wildfires. We could also build up our forests to store excess carbon dioxide to combat global warming.
The text provides literature surveys on relevant modeling issues and policy concerns. It demonstrates the application of a modeling system using a "base case" 50-year projection and a small set of scenarios. These illustrate, for example, the effects of changes in public harvest policies, variations in investments in silviculture, and globalization. It is aimed at policy makers, researchers and graduate students who are building or using forest sector models.
A collection of 18 papers and extended abstracts based on talks presented at the Internat. Union of Forest Res. Org. (IUFRO) Conference held in March 2003. This conference emphasized the many ways that forest products research can contribute to sustainable choices in forest management. The two Research Groups represented here are the Sustainable Production of Forest Products Research Group and the Non-Wood Forest Products Research Group. The papers address many aspects of wood and non-wood forest products including: forest management; product development; economic development implications; local, national, and international protocols; assessments; and research strategies. Charts and tables.