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In this dissertation, I study the changes in external liabilities and assets of emerging market economies since the early-2000s and the following implications of the changes for the financial stability and the optimal policies of the economies. In chapter 1, I construct a dataset, which measures the external liability composition of emerging market economies in different instruments and currencies. The new dataset shows emerging market economies have much lower currency exposures than in the past. Also, the observed pattern in the dataset suggests that the ever-increasing local currency external borrowings of the emerging market economies since the early 2000s, original sin dissipation, is related to the capital market development in emerging market economies. Chapter 2 is a study of channels through which risk-appetite shocks to global investors, i.e., global financial shocks, are transmitted to emerging market economies. First, I empirically show that much of the transmission of global financial shocks to emerging market economies is reflected in equity and local currency bond portfolio investment capital flows. I then develop a small open economy model which, augmented with leverage constrained banks and foreign investors who purchase equities and bonds, can replicate these empirical findings qualitatively. Quantitative analysis of the model suggests that global financial shocks can account for 50 % of the equity price volatility and 30 % of the investment volatility in Korea, in which most of the external liabilities of the country are Korean won-denominated equities and debts. In short, all the analysis in chapter 2 implies that to a substantial extent, risk-appetite shocks to global investors are transmitted to emerging market economies via fickle portfolio capital flows to equity and local currency bond markets in the economies. In chapter 3, Dongwook Kim and I provide a novel theory of international reserve accumulation of emerging market economies. We view reserve accumulation as capital outflows by the public sector which supplements insufficient capital outflows by the private sector. In our model, when an emerging market economy receives large capital inflows in the form of direct or equity portfolio investment, the emerging market economy must invest abroad to maintain macroeconomic balance and prepare for a possible future sudden stop. If the private sector in the emerging market economy cannot invest externally sufficiently or invests inefficiently due to low financial expertise or poor institutional quality, supplemental international investments must be accomplished by the public sector as international reserve outflows.
"This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay provides a systematic way to distinguish informed institutional trades from uninformed ones based on the relation between institutional trades and sequential public information. By studying actively managed U.S. institutions from 1994 to 2010, I show that institutional trades initiated by managers responding proactively to upcoming informational signals strongly predict future stock returns. A hedging portfolio based on these trades generates an average risk-adjusted abnormal return of approximately 3% per quarter. The predictability is more pronounced for stocks with higher information asymmetry, such as those of firms with high volatility and young age. I also find that the most informed institutional traders are likely to have short-term investment horizon, large block holdings, high industry portfolio concentrations, as well as reside in financial centers. My results indicate that the informedness of certain institutional investor groups is substantially reduced after Regulation FD. The second essay examines the product market impact of minority stake acquisitions. We show that partial equity ownership between rival firms has a significant impact on industry competition. Industry-level tests indicate that acquisitions of a minority stake in competing firms' equity are followed by higher output prices and higher price-cost margins, particularly in industries with high barriers to entry. Stock-price reactions of non-participating competitors of the acquirer and target are positive while announcement returns of customer firms are negative. Moreover, the positive (negative) stock-price reaction of competitors (customers) is more pronounced when the acquirer and target are larger firms with greater market share. These results indicate that equity ownership of rival firms dampens competition in an industry.The third essay examines whether foreign firms by listing on or delisting from regular U.S. stock exchanges affect their U.S. counterparts. We find that they do - negatively for listings and positively for delistings, - and the impact is especially profound for the listing events. The U.S. counterparts of foreign firms belonging to the same industry experience severe underperformance in the short- and long-run across a variety of financial and accounting performance metrics, such as firm returns as well as growth in sales, profits, total assets, and capital expenditures. For example, the average 60-day cumulative abnormal return of U.S. firms around the foreign listing date is negative 2%, while the 36-month post-listing return is negative 4.3%. This result is present among listings with and without U.S. equity issuance. In addition, incumbent U.S. firms experience changes in their financing policies and a reduction in analyst coverage following listings of competing foreign firms in the U.S. Our findings therefore highlight an important role of international markets in influencing U.S. firms and markets. " --
This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.
Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.