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A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
"The chief cause of problems is solutions."- Eric Sevareid"Every situation, no matter how complex it initially looks, is exceedingly simple."- Eli Goldratt In 2018 I attended a training course in Paris that fundamentally changed my perspective. This was H. William (Bill) Dettmer's six-day course in the Logical Thinking Process, an exceptionally powerful methodology for strategy definition and problem solving, based on the methods of Dr. Eli Goldratt, author of The Goal and systems management legend, adapted and refined by Bill Dettmer.Towards the end of the course I realized how mastering this rigorous methodology changes the way you approach situations of any kind. It helps you deal with difficult situations in a way few if any other methodologies can.Achieve breakthrough results by deciphering complex causality, unearthing false assumptions and removing the conflicts caused by faulty mental models; this is what the Logical Thinking Process helps us to do, using classical cause-effect logic. In this book, a simple, everyday example is used to demonstrate how to apply the Logical Thinking Process and how it helps us drive success by making sounder, more rational decisions. The book also contains practical organizational examples and a concise overview of the framework.
Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
'A major rewrite of Dettmer's classic Goldratt's Theory of Constraints, this new edition presents a whole new approach to building and applying logic trees. The logical thinking process referred to in the title is nothing less than a broadly applicable, systems-level approach to policy analysis. Dettmer has streamlined the process of constructing the logic trees while simultaneously ensuring that the results are more logically sound and closer representations of reality than ever before. He explains an easier, more logically sound way to integrate Current Reality Trees with Evaporating Clouds. His new version of the thinking process "retires" the Transition Tree in favor of the marriage of a more detailed Prerequisite Tree and critical chain project management. This book contains new examples of logic trees from a variety of real-world applications. Most of the diagrams and illustrations are new and improved. Explanations and procedures for constructing the logic trees are considerably simplified.
Emerging as a hot topic in the mid-twentieth century, causality is one of the most frequently discussed issues in contemporary philosophy. Causality has been a central concept in philosophy as well as in the sciences, especially the natural sciences, dating back to its beginning in Greek thought. David Hume famously claimed that causality is the cement of the universe. In general terms, it links eventualities, predicts the consequences of action, and is the cognitive basis for the acquisition and the use of categories and concepts in the child. Indeed, how could one answer why-questions, around which early rational thought begins to revolve, without hitting on the relationships between reason and consequence, cause and effect, or without drawing these distinctions? But a comprehensive definition of causality has been notoriously hard to provide, and virtually every aspect of causation has been subject to much debate and analysis.Thinking About Causes brings together top philosophers from the United States and Europe to focus on causality as a major force in philosophical and scientific thought. Topics addressed include: ancient Stoicism and moral philosophy; the case of sacramental causality; traditional causal concepts in Descartes; Kant on transcendental laws; the influence of J. S. Mill's politics on his concept of causation; plurality in causality; causality in modern physics; causality in economics; and the concept of free will.Taken together, the essays in this collection from the Pittsburgh -Konstanz series provide the best current thinking about causality, especially as it relates to the philosophy of science.
Rumination and Related Constructs: Causes, Consequences, and Treatment of Thinking Too Much synthesizes existing research relating to rumination. Integrating research and theories from clinical, social, cognitive, and health psychology, it features empirical findings related to why people ruminate, as well as treatments that decrease rumination. The book applies a transdiagnostic approach, looking beyond just depression to emphasize the wide range of clinical outcomes associated with repetitive thought. The book additionally describes research on physiological reactivity to rumination, the expression of rumination, potential benefits of rumination, and much more. - Summarizes research on the emotional, behavioral, and physical consequences of rumination - Discusses rumination in conjunction with different psychological disorders - Integrates existing theories about rumination - Identifies triggers and personality traits that influence whether people ruminate - Explores cognitive and neural correlates of rumination - Reviews established treatments for rumination
This acclaimed, influential work applies the concepts of systemic family therapy to the emotional life of congregations. Edwin H. Friedman shows how the same understanding of family process that can aid clergy in their pastoral role also has important ramifications for negotiating congregational dynamics and functioning as an effective leader. Clergy from diverse denominations, as well as family therapists and counselors, have found that this book directly addresses the dilemmas and crises they encounter daily. It is widely used as a text in courses on family systems and pastoral care.
1911 Being a compendium of the teachings lain down in his Volumen Paramirum by Bombastus Von Hohenheim, better know as Paracelsus. Translated into English by Agnes Black. in every occult circle, Parcelsus has never ceased to be valued and esteemed..