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Seminar paper from the year 2007 in the subject Politics - Political Theory and the History of Ideas Journal, grade: A, Stellenbosch Universitiy, course: Comparative Political Economy, language: English, abstract: The primary aim of this paper is to provide a detailed analysis of the manner in which important current trends will shape the future of the division of labour and the world system as a whole. The implications of the major political (loss of sovereignty), technological, cultural (globalisation vs. identity), environmental (population growth) and economic trends that the current generation faces will be considered; thereafter looking at its impact on the global division of labour. This will be followed by a thorough analysis of what the nature and structure of the world system will look like in 2025. The paper will end off with a prediction of what the balance of power in the system will be around this time, looking at several candidates for possible hegemony. The argument posed in this essay is that the world system is undergoing a transitional phase, whereby the system could potentially collapse and be replaced by another one, although this is not likely to occur as early as 2025. The other argument is that the ushering in of a new hegemon is a lengthy process, one that will probably not have taken root by this time; thus 2025 will almost certainly be characterized by a multipolar system. [...]
Immanuel Wallerstein's World-System theory made a big impact on International Political Economy when it was first formulated in the early 1980s. Although subsequently criticised, the recent demise of the Soviet system's historic attempt to delink from global capitalism has provided a perhaps unanticipated confirmation of the profundity of its insights. Now with this new book, Wallerstein and a team of colleagues from the Fernand Braudel Center for the Study of Economies, Historical Systems and Civilizations take world-system theory a major step forward.
"Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" is the fourth unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible "futures," we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss. (From the NIC website)
Seeks to account for changes in the world over the second half of the 20th century and to identify the likely trajectory of global trends over the coming generation. Presents striking evidence not simply that the global system is entering a new era, but that the whole capitalist structure may be approaching a systemic disintegration.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Leading cultural theorists consider the meaning and implications of world-scale humanist scholarship by engaging with Immanuel Wallersteins world-systems analysis.
Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges. The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people. Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy -- often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents. But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents. What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China -- Tianjin -- will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map. What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life -- facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
Adopting an historical approach, explores four controversies facing global analyses today: the geography of world power, the power of states versus the power of capital, the social power of subordinate groups, and the changing balance of civilizational power.
An important building block for further advancing world-system theory, this book considers the theory from the perspectives of global processes and antisystemic movements, feminist theory, and the aftermath of the colonial system. The volume addresses three myths tied to Eurocentric forms of thinking: objectivist and universalist knowledges, the decolonization of the modern world, and developmentalism. All three myths, the authors argue, conceal the continued hierarchical and unequal relations of domination and exploitation between European and Euro-American centers and non-European peripheral regions. In this volume, world-system scholars address these and related aspects of the modern/colonial capitalist world-system. Addressing the myth of universalist knowledge, the volume reminds us that our knowledge is situated in the gender, class, racial, and sexual hierarchies of a specific region in the world-system, while the coloniality of power additionally situates our knowledge. The volume further argues that the postcolonial era retains the hierarchy of colonialism, and the possibility of national development without global structural changes is one of the greatest 20th-century myths. Taking these perspectives into consideration, the contributors examine and help to refine classic world-system theory.
"Global governance - the collective management of common problems at the international level - is at a critical juncture. Although global governance has been a relative success since its development after the Second World War, the growing number of issues on the international agenda, and their complexity, is outpacing the ability of international organizations and national governments to cope. Power shifts are also complicating global governance."--Introduction.