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Chapter 1 takes a close look at two types of heterogeneous investors (momentum and disposition) to form a unique difference model, to interpret housing price dynamics. Three parameters are crucial, namely, auto-correlation, the rate of mean reversion and the contemporaneous adjustment towards long-term equilibrium price. The key implication is that the 2006 boom of the Singapore private housing market does not offer as large a magnitude as that from the price gain in the 1990’s boom-and-recovery over the long-term. Singapore’s private housing market is low risk, offering stable returns owing to virtually no divergence even in the speculative 1990s. The best way to invest is to consider the momentum strategy and avoid the herd behaviour for profit sustainability. For policy makers, the Singapore private housing market is over-damped in the long run. Chapter 2 adopts game theory to look at the private residential development oligopolistic market; the determination of residential development sale prices in an uncertain market and under incomplete information of competing developers; the dynamic interaction among developers; the time lags of the development project completion from project start; and the launching of the residential development for sale before completion and the residential development’s own capacity constraints. Developers tend to cooperate for long-term benefit, leading to a sales slowdown. Relatively high profits, earnable in the first few periods, provide an allowance to price undercut others, to sell much faster. First-mover advantage in a new market is evident. As uncertainty rises, prices decrease while price variability increases. Chapter 3 looks at the institutional nature of legal origin and the total returns (TRs), derived from investing in a country’s direct real estate, and via the adoption of a multi-factor arbitrage pricing theory (APT) model. The 1st and 4th order autoregressive model is adopted to de-smooth the TRs. De-smoothed data is used in conjunction with 2 macroeconomic variables (real GDP growth rate and interest rate) and 1 real estate risk factor (vacancy rate) to form the multi-factor structural model. A pooled panel analysis is conducted with the law-system dummies, denoting British legal origin and French legal origin, and the factor loadings (i.e. the sensitivity of the risk factor to the TRs). Macroeconomic and real estate risk factors in equilibrium affect the TRs. Vacancy rate commands high and significant risk premium owing to its direct impact on the TRs, relative to GDP growth rate and interest rate. Chapter 4 is concerned with the real estate mezzanine investment (REMI), a new financial instrument for Asia’s real estate market, and examines the REMI structure, the measurement and characteristics of its risks and returns via a forward-looking binomial asset tree (BAT) model. Risk neutral pricing probability is adopted. REMI bears more risk than typical commercial bank loans, resulting in higher interest rates than pure equity. Different risk issues focus on two major sources - the financial loan to value (LTV) ratio risk and the real estate and capital markets risk. Chapter 4 fulfils the need to close the gap concerning the REMI structure and performance in the steady state, utilizing reliable, authoritative information and data sources. Lastly, Chapter 5 offers this book’s conclusion.
The book concludes with my life achievements, then discusses my expanded work experience, my published articles, my published books and citations of my articles.
Direct real estate market analysis is a rigorous investigative approach for academic research, and for direct real estate investment research in practice. ‘An Asian International Real Estate Review’ considers the subject in the context of economic theory pertaining to market disequilibria, utilizing data from major cities in Asia as case studies. Such an approach makes it possible to determine what really defines an Asian direct real estate sector. What is being measured? How does it behave (in terms of price and non-price factors)? How is it structured? How effectively does it achieve sustainable total returns? And how does it manage direct real estate market uncertainty? Direct real estate market uncertainty originates from both the demand-side and the supply-side of the market. The market responds to structural macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that in turn are affected by related public policies. Such factors and policies interact to affect Asian direct real estate in unique ways since the Asian currency crisis of 1997. ‘An Asian International Real Estate Review’ shows that while the details of direct real estate market analysis are different for the various Asian cities (and their direct real estate sectors) owing to their different stages of maturity, underlying principles nevertheless apply. ‘An Asian International Real Estate Review’ also looks at managing direct real estate market uncertainty at the portfolio level via the analytical techniques of direct real estate asset allocation, direct real estate value-at-risk (VaR), real option analysis and pricing.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is working closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People's Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea---collectively known as ASEAN+3---to develop local currency bond markets and facilitate regional bond market integration under the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI). ABMI was launched in 2002 to strengthen the resilience of the region's financial system by developing local currency bond markets as an alternative source to foreign currency-denominated, short-term bank loans for long-term investment financing. The need for infrastructure investment among ASEAN+3 members is well documented, with estimates for needed investment through 2020 reaching as high as $550 billion. Local currency financing of infrastructure projects has the important advantage of avoiding the currency risk that can arise when a project generating revenues in the domestic currency has foreign currency-denominated debt service requirements. This study was undertaken under ABMI and funded by the Government of the PRC. It addresses two key questions: (i) Why is local currency bond financing not more widely used for infrastructure projects in ASEAN+3? and (ii) What can be done to promote infrastructure bond financing?
This book provides a comprehensive overview of Private Equity (PE) financing in the infrastructure and real estate sectors. In doing so, it analyzes the impact of such investments in the two sectors, evaluates the types of financing strategies, and explores the value created by such investments. Infrastructure and Real Estate have emerged as a significant asset class for PE investors. In the last three decades, PE firms have invested significant amounts of capital in infrastructure and real estate – sectors which did not feature in their radar before 2000. Between 2000 and 2009, PE firms invested more than USD 200 billion in infrastructure. Real estate sector also witnessed investments of a similar scale as that of infrastructure. Fundraising for infrastructure and real estate was about USD 100 billion and USD 150 billion respectively in 2019, setting new records and reaching all-time highs. This book examines such PE investments – both at a global level and at an emerging economy level, to identify how PE firms have created an impact with their investments, to provide both ready capital and value-addition to sectors which seem to urgently need both. The book is divided into three sections – impact of PE investments, strategies used by PE firms, and value created by such investments. The findings of this research and the corresponding best practices are useful and applicable to students, academicians, researchers, financial institutions, policy makers and law makers, commercial banks and funding agencies, practitioners, the Government, and other parties who are directly or indirectly associated with the development of infrastructure and real estate; and could aid funding agencies, practitioners and policy makers who are directly responsible for creating and developing infrastructure and real estate for their economies.
Considers real estate market analysis in the context of economic theory pertaining to market disequilibria, utilising data from major cities in Asia as case studies. This book looks at managing real estate market uncertainty at the portfolio level through the analytical techniques of real estate asset allocation.
Participants in Asian financial markets have witnessed the unprecedented growth and sophistication of their investments since the 1997 crisis. Handbook of Asian Finance: REITs, Trading, and Fund Performance analyzes the forces behind these growth rates. Insights into banking, fund performance, and the effects of trading technologies for practitioners to tax evasion, market manipulation, and corporate governance issues are all here, presented by expert scholars. Offering broader and deeper coverage than other handbooks, the Handbook of Asian Finance: REITs, Trading, and Fund Performance explains what is going on in Asia today. - Presents the only micro- and market-related analysis of pan-Asian finance available today - Explores the implications implicit in the expansion of sovereign funds and the growth of the hedge fund and real estate fund management industries - Investigates the innovations in technology that have ushered in faster capital flow and larger trading volumes