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This paper develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate. It then uses the model to test whether there has been a structural break in consumption behavior because of the 2008 financial crisis. Before the crisis, the personal saving rate was trending downwards. However, in 2008 there was a significant rise in the saving rate that continued until the end of 2012, suggesting a permanent change in household behavior. To assess this issue formally, the unknown parameters of the model are estimated using data for 1961Q1-2007Q4, a period which precedes the crisis. The model is then used to predict the saving rate from 2008Q1 onwards and to assess whether the rise in the saving rate after 2008 was due to sizable, but transitory, income/wealth shocks or to changes in the underlying elasticities between saving and its determinants (hence structural). The statistical evidence suggests there was no structural break in the household saving behavior, implying that the rise in the saving rate during 2008-2012 was caused by the negative shocks to income, employment and wealth. This result explains why the saving rate resumed its decline in 2013, as real disposable income, employment and net worth recovered. Assuming that the real growth in these determinants remains strong, the estimated model predicts continued negative pressures on the current account deficit and further external imbalances attributable to the U.S. household sector.
There is probably no concept other than saving for which U.S. official agencies issue annual estimates that differ by more than a third, as they have done for net household saving, or for which reputable scholars claim that the correct measure is close to ten times the officially published one. Yet despite agreement among economists and policymakers on the importance of this measure, huge inconsistencies persist. Contributors to this volume investigate ways to improve aggregate and sectoral saving and investment estimates and analyze microdata from recent household wealth surveys. They provide analyses of National Income and Product Account (NIPA) and Flow-of-Funds measures and of saving and survey-based wealth estimates. Conceptual and methodological questions are discussed regarding long-term trends in the U.S. wealth inequality, age-wealth profiles, pensions and wealth distribution, and biases in inferences about life-cycle changes in saving and wealth. Some new assessments are offered for investment in human and nonhuman capital, the government contribution to national wealth, NIPA personal and corporate saving, and banking imputation.
The declining U.S. national saving rate has prompted economists and policymakers to ask, should the federal government encourage household saving, and if so, through which policies? In order to better understand saving programs, this volume provides a systematic and detailed description of saving policies in the G-7 industrialized nations: the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Each of the seven chapters focuses on one country and addresses a core set of topics: types of accumulated household savings and debt; tax policies toward capital income; saving in the form of public and private pensions, including Social Security and similar programs; saving programs that receive special tax treatment; and saving through insurance. This detailed summary of the saving incentives of the G-7 nations will be an invaluable reference for policymakers and academics interested in personal saving behavior.
"... Papers presented at a conference held at the Stouffer Wailea Hotel, Maui, Hawaii, January 6-7, 1989. ... part of the Research on Taxation program of the National Bureau of Economic Research." -- p. ix.
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China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.
Why should people - and economies - save? This book on the savings problem in Latin America and the Caribbean suggests that, while saving to survive the bad times is important, saving to thrive in the good times is what really counts. People must save to invest in health and education, live productive and fulfilling lives, and make the most of their retirement years. Firms must save to grow their enterprises, employ more workers in better jobs, and produce quality goods. Governments must save to build the infrastructure required by a productive economy, provide quality services to their citizens, and assure their senior citizens a dignified, worry-free retirement. In short, countries must save not for the proverbial rainy day, but for a sunny day - a time when everyone can bask in the benefits of growth, prosperity, and well-being. This book is open access under a CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO license.