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This book presents a cutting-edge analysis of the economic effects and challenges of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a special focus on EU sanctions on Russian energy and Ukraine’s political relationship with the European Union in a global context. Welfens outlines key macroeconomic perspectives on the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting in particular how sanctions posed by the international community will have a wider economic impact than what has so far been envisaged. The book discusses the effects of Russian gas supply boycotts against Western countries as well as global effects of an EU energy import boycott on Russia, especially for China and the Asian continent. An innovative proposal to cut electricity prices is presented. It also explores the challenges to relations between the EU, China and Russia caused by the invasion, the effects of the unfolding refugee crisis (within a post-Brexit EU), military and humanitarian aid pledges to Ukraine, and the risks of reduced multilateralism within the world economy as a direct result of the war. The book also analyses the risks and benefits of potential enlargement of the EU to integrate Ukraine as a member state. The topics covered by the book are all set within a long-run view of diplomatic and economic relations between the West, Russia and Ukraine. The factors analysed here provide a new, broader picture of the international effects of the conflict, as well as its potential implications for policy design as we enter a new global order marked by the Russo-Ukrainian war. The book will be of interest to researchers and policy-makers working in international economics, new political economy, European politics and integration, and macroeconomics more broadly.
During the last 15 years Putin’s policies have produced a number of controversial effects both at the international and domestic levels, some diplomatic results, and unresolved regional conflicts. In foreign policy he accordingly launched the idea of a Greater Europe. To this aim and with the view to highlighting the goodwill of the Russian government to enhance cooperation with the European Union as a pro-active and equal partner. Sooner than expected, political divergences and vital interests emerged. As a result, the Greater Europe project was progressively frozen, if not plainly abandoned. However, the EU-Russia joint attempts to solve the Ukrainian crises, which were undertaken during the “Normandy Four” meetings (Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine), resulted in signing the weak – but still important – Minsk agreements. This helps to prove that there is still room for cooperation between the two sides. These agreements may hopefully set the stage for a more comprehensive deal aiming to close the gap between the EU’s and Russia’s competing visions.
One of Europe's old nations steeped in history, Ukraine is today an undisputed independent state. It is a democracy and has transformed into a market economy with predominant private ownership. Ukraine's postcommunist transition has been one of the most protracted and socially costly, but it has taken the country to a desirable destination. Åslund's vivid account of Ukraine's journey begins with a brief background, where he discusses the implications of Ukraine's history, the awakening of society because of Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms, the early democratization, and the impact of the ill-fated Soviet economic reforms. He then turns to the reign of President Leonid Kravchuk from 1991 to 1994, the only salient achievement of which was nation-building, while the economy collapsed in the midst of hyperinflation. The first two years of Leonid Kuchma's presidency, from 1994 to 1996, were characterized by substantial achievements, notably financial stabilization and mass privatization. The period 1996–99 was a miserable period of policy stagnation, rent seeking, and continued economic decline. In 2000 hope returned to Ukraine. Viktor Yushchenko became prime minister and launched vigorous reforms to cleanse the economy from corruption, and economic growth returned. The ensuing period, 2001–04, amounted to a competitive oligarchy. It was quite pluralist, although repression increased. Economic growth was high. The year 2004 witnessed the most joyful period in Ukraine, the Orange Revolution, which represented Ukraine's democratic breakthrough, with Yushchenko as its hero. The postrevolution period, however, has been characterized by great domestic political instability; a renewed, explicit Russian threat to Ukraine's sovereignty; and a severe financial crisis. The answers to these challenges lie in how soon the European Union fully recognizes Ukraine's long-expressed identity as a European state, how swiftly Ukraine improves its malfunctioning constitutional order, and how promptly it addresses corruption.
Diploma Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: 1,3, University of Leipzig, language: English, abstract: The Association Agreement, which was signed between the European Union and Ukraine in 2014, opened a big discussion about new challenges in Europe. Many European countries signed similar Agreements and became very quickly therafter full members of the EU. Nowadays there are a lot of opinions and myths about what exactly the Ukrainian Association is, and, in general, where it should bring Ukraine and Europe. This research paper explores the objectives pursued by the EU and Ukraine by the time they signed the Agreement. It provides a full analysis and interpretation of its content and describes how Ukrainian attempt to get closer to the European Union changed the geo-political situation in Europe. This paper is important as it will cast in light the background of the present tragical events in Ukraine and will provide deeper knowledge about the situation. The main hypotheses of this work are as follows: 1. The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU does not give any guarantees for the accession to the EU and could only be seen as the basis of a prospective future membership. 2. The access to the European integration of Ukraine in the EaP is precluded because of inflexible and “naive” policy of the EU. The ENP has failed and needs to be reconsidered. 3. Russian permanent intervention in the policy decision-making of Ukraine slowdowns its integration towards Western Europe. The paper will be a mixture of description and “data followed by analysis”, going gradually more in depth from the negotiation process to the conclusion of the AA between Ukraine and the EU. To make the argument easy to follow, chronological analysis will be used in dealing with the interval of 2007-2015 (from the beginning of negotiations to the implementation process of the AA).
Europe's economic and political landscape is changing dramatically. The demise of the socialist CMEA and the USSR has allowed eastern European economies to open up and caused Russia/the CIS to engage in a series of difficult reforms which have been supported by the G-7 and the International Monetary Fund plus the World Bank on the one hand, and, on the other hand, by the EU and the EBRD. While some of the (early) Visegrad countries apparently were rather successful in their transition attempt, systemic transition approaches in other countries - Romania and Bulgaria - and, above all, in Russia largely were a failure. Economic hardship, social unrest, political radicalization and the international spreading of criminal activities can be identified as problems from the failure of Russia's first transition attempt. This book deals - from an international perspective - with the postsocialist countries in Europe, i. e. there is a focus on eastern enlargement and on Russia on the one hand, on the other hand the topic is which international influences and effects will emerge from EU enlargement and the Russian transition. While chapter A exclusively deals with major problems of eastern enlargement and the policy options for dealing with this difficult problem, chapter B is devoted to the Russian transformation crisis. There the analysis has a focus on Russia in its own right but also on the potential negative spillovers of a Russian transformation disaster which could occur in the late 1990s.