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Sharp, in-depth and highly visual, this is the fully revised textbook and teaching aid for students, tutors and in-house learning and development teams keen to know more about the world of trends, forecasting, innovation thinking and strategic foresight. Designed and written as a practical ‘how to’ guide for design, marketing, brand and innovation studies students, updated chapters include the latest research and industry case studies on superforecasting, three horizon scanning, scenario planning, foresight framework building and the creation and running of your own trend and innovation sprints. Students also have a chance to mix and merge the worlds of forecasting with future studies as we look at how techniques and processes such as the Delphi Method, cross-impact analysis, futures wheels and backcasting are being used by next generation forecasters to expand the ways they map, assess and define the needs and behaviours of tomorrow’s consumers.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
An understanding of trends is a fundamental skill for anyone working in the fashion industry. In this book Gwyneth Holland and Rae Jones look at how to produce a well-researched trend, from initial inspiration to concrete idea and, eventually, real product. Illustrated throughout with insights from practicing trend forecasters and industry insiders, it is an invaluable guide for fashion students and practitioners alike.
Trend-Driven Innovation Beat accelerating customer expectations. Every business leader, entrepreneur, innovator, and marketer wants to know where customers are headed. The problem? The received wisdom on how to find out is wrong. In this startling new book, the team at TrendWatching share a powerful, counter-intuitive truth: to discover what people want next, stop looking at customers and start looking at businesses. That means learning how to draw powerful insights from the way leading brands and disruptive startups—from Apple to Uber, Chipotle to Patagonia—redefine customer expectations. Sharing the secrets that have led thousands of the world's most successful brands and agencies to rely on TrendWatching for over a decade, Trend-Driven Innovation is the book that will reconfigure your view of the business world forever. You'll learn: How to spot emerging trends using three crucial building blocks, and how to recognize the expectation gaps that herald opportunity. Why most professionals focus on precisely the wrong trends and innovations, and how to avoid this. How to turn trends and insights into innovations that customers will love. Amid the endless change that defines today's business environment, opportunity is everywhere. Highly practical, and featuring real-world examples from around the world, Trend-Driven Innovation is the actionable, battle-tested manual that will enable you harness those opportunities time after time. Setting you up to build an organization that matters, products customers love, and campaigns people can't stop talking about.
Handbook of Probabilistic Models carefully examines the application of advanced probabilistic models in conventional engineering fields. In this comprehensive handbook, practitioners, researchers and scientists will find detailed explanations of technical concepts, applications of the proposed methods, and the respective scientific approaches needed to solve the problem. This book provides an interdisciplinary approach that creates advanced probabilistic models for engineering fields, ranging from conventional fields of mechanical engineering and civil engineering, to electronics, electrical, earth sciences, climate, agriculture, water resource, mathematical sciences and computer sciences. Specific topics covered include minimax probability machine regression, stochastic finite element method, relevance vector machine, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulations, random matrix, Gaussian process regression, Kalman filter, stochastic optimization, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, Bayesian update, kriging, copula-statistical models, and more. - Explains the application of advanced probabilistic models encompassing multidisciplinary research - Applies probabilistic modeling to emerging areas in engineering - Provides an interdisciplinary approach to probabilistic models and their applications, thus solving a wide range of practical problems
In a fast-moving global industry, how can anyone know what the next trend will be? Fashion Trends: Analysis and Forecasting offers a clear pathway into the theory and practice of forecasting fashion, using professional case studies to demonstrate each technique and concept. This revised edition includes an updated model of the fashion trend analysis and forecasting process and expanded coverage of social media, digital influencers, sustainability and social responsibility. There are also first-hand visual materials relating to forecasts from leading firms. With the rise of individualism and concern for the sustainable world, the authors also walk you through the 'end of fashion' and what comes next, including: recycled and upcycled fashion, garment rental, subscription services, the circular economy, transparency and traceability, and the role of forecasting in encouraging sustainable lifestyles. Key topics – The characteristics of an innovation – The influence of consumer groups – Long- and short-term fashion forecasting – Sociocultural factors and their influence on trends – Fashion professionals' roles in creating and supporting trends – Consumer and industry trends accelerating product innovation and diffusion – Changing trend forecasting formats – The influence of trend forecasting on business decisions
Fashion Forward demystifies the exciting career of a fashion forecaster and fosters skills that will benefit any design professional. The book begins with an overview of fashion forecasting theories and concepts and then leads readers through a step-by-step guide to creating and presenting a forecast. The authors reveal the inner workings of global fashion forecasting through real-world examples and interviews with both influential forecasters and the designers who rely upon them. Fashion Forward enables readers to start spotting tomorrow's trends today and compellingly communicate them-both visually and verbally-to inspire fashion innovators. New to this Edition - Current images and examples. Updated fashion photos to include current and trending images, professional presentations and forecast examples, plus new interviews and quotes. - Covers the latest methods and technology. New coverage of social media, technology and data analytics practices in fashion forecasting. - Enhanced global perspective. New content addressed the global apparel industry, emphasizes international forecasting firms, includes interviews with global forecaster and trend specialists, and more diverse images and examples throughout the book. - Practical career information and hands-on application. Updated and expanded career opportunities sections and enhanced activities provide real-world simulations and insights. - New online STUDIO resources offer students self-study quizzes, flashcards, additional projects and online resources. PLEASE NOTE: Purchasing or renting this ISBN does not include access to the STUDIO resources that accompany this text. To receive free access to the STUDIO content with new copies of this book, please refer to the book + STUDIO access card bundle ISBN 9781501328350.
Everyone in the fashion business needs to develop an essential survival skill: how to interpret the intelligence provided by the fashion forecasting industry, to anticipate and respond to emerging trends. Lavishly illustrated in full colour throughout, with clear and relevant explanations of the processes involved, Fashion Forecasting is for fashion students and young professionals who already have acquired some fashion knowledge and skills. The authors interviewed the key players within this exciting industry and provide here fascinating insights into the dynamic contemporary fashion forecasting world and the varied creative roles within it - from intelligence gatherers to project consultants. The book covers how a trend is sourced, anticipated and developed, and also explores the interaction with marketing and brand development.
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Gain the knowledge and skills that can help you exploit instability. No book can help you construct foolproof forecasting systems that will ensure you'll accurately predict economic turning points every time. But with Niemira and Klein's Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles on hand, you'll be able to significantly strengthen your ability to measure, monitor, and forecast important fluctuations. Part history, it provides you with essential background material on the characteristics and causes of economic volatility. It offers accessible coverage of the classical business cycle, the five basic types of economic cycles as determined by leading economists, and evolving ideas on the forces driving instability—ranging from simple unicausal theories, more complex Keynesian theory, to new classical macroeconomics. In addition, its concise review of America's economic past highlights the lessons that can be learned from the various cycles experienced since shortly before World War II. Part handbook, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles presents the full spectrum of statistical techniques used to measure cycles, trends, seasonal patterns, and other vital changes, offering you step-by-step guidance on applying a specific method and detailing its uses and limitations. It goes on to show how youcan adapt particular techniques to assess, track, and predict: Industry cycles—including an objective, tailor-made forecasting tool Regional business cycles—including a survey of regional indicators International business cycles—with an international business cycle chronology Inflation cycles—plus "12 little-known facts" about this complex cycle Financial cycles—covering credit, monetary, and interest rate cycles Stock market cycles—with advice on achieving more disciplined trading Based on outstanding scholarship and years of practical experience, Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles will serve as an invaluable tool for practitioners like you whose decision-making—and profit margin—depend on accurately assessing today's often uncertain economic climate. "Forecasting Financialand Economic Cycles provides a lively survey of the many ways that cyclical economic activity has been dissected and analyzed. With this book, an astute reader may even be able to anticipate the next cyclical turn." —Samuel D. Kahan, Chief Economist Fuji Securities, Inc. "The definitive book on the most important and enduringfeature of an often mist-bound economic landscape: the business cycle." —Alfred L. Malabre, Jr., Economics Editor, The Wall Street,Journal "Niemira and Klein cover both the theory of economic cyclesand methods for forecasting them. They provide one of the most comprehensive and current reviews of academic studies of economic cycles to be found anywhere." —Anthony F. Herbst, Professor of Finance, The University of Texas at El Paso "This book succeeds as a comprehensive, balanced, and accessible treatment of fluctuations in economic and financial activity. It should prove useful to all those in industry and finance who wish to understand and analyze the trends and changes in the modern dynamic economy." —Victor Zarnowitz, Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, University of Chicago