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The TRACE (Toronto annual Canadian econometric) model is an annual, non-linear econometric model of the Canadian economy designed primarily to forecast the statistics which appear in the principal tables of the Canadian National Income and Expenditure Accounts. TRACE is the first Canadian econometric model from which a published ex ante forecast has been made. In this book the authors describe the model and a high-speed computer. They show how the effects of alternative combinations of federal government policies can be examined by producing sets of conditional forecasts from the model. Both impact and long-run multiplier effects of changes in fiscal and monetary policy are derived from simulation experiments performed with the model. The results show the different effects that are obtained under régimes of fixed and floating foreign exchange rates. The book presents the economic theory underlying the model and provides information on estimates of the structural parameters of the Canadian economy. It will be of interest to those engaged in economic forecasting and policy analysis, as well as those studying macro-economic theory and econometric methods.
Canada’s vaccine rollout is bringing the prospect of an end to the COVID-19 crisis and a pick-up in output growth is expected. An ultra-low policy rate and other monetary measures continue to provide substantial support for the economy and fiscal support for households and businesses has been substantial.
This book gives a comprehensive description of macroeconometric modeling and its development over time. The first part depicts the history of macroeconometric model building, starting with Jan Tinbergen's and Lawrence R. Klein's contributions. It is unique in summarizing the development and specific structure of macroeconometric models built in North America, Europe, and various other parts of the world. The work thus offers an extensive source for researchers in the field. The second part of the book covers the systematic characteristics of macroeconometric models. It includes the household and enterprise sectors, disequilibria, financial flows, and money market sectors.
Forecasting is an important part of the desire to influence our destiny in an uncertain future. While there are many faces to the forecasting Eve, perhaps the most important in the present age involves prediction about economic matters relating to the larger community. Mervin Daub argues that careful consideration of aggregate economic forecasting, in this case with particular reference to Canada, enables us to better understand the role which prediction plays in human affairs.
The nine papers in this volume were written for a conference on research in international trade and finance held at Princeton University in March 1973. Each author was asked to survey research on one major topic, with a view to answering three questions: What have we learned from recent empirical research? What are the major gaps in present knowledge? How should we go about filling those gaps? When answering the second question, authors were urged to look at the practical requirements of those who must make policy concerning the international economy, and at the opportunities and insights offered by recent developments in pure theory. When answering the third, they were urged to look at developments in econometric technique, newly available data, and work in progress in related fields.