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We assess the status and effects of the twin crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on different segments (production, trade, and consumption) of Myanmar’s food processing sector. Since 2020, we note overall a stalled transformation in food processing in the country: 1. Production (post-farm): The food-processing sector – and especially rice milling – is shown to be very important, making up more than 80 percent of the revenue and value addition of the local industrial sector. The sector suffered substantially from the twin crises, as seen by reduced output and limited new investments in the two most recent years. 2. International trade: Myanmar is in most years a net agricultural exporter (in value terms). However, food exports are dominated by unprocessed and minimally processed products while food imports are mostly more expensive processed foods. While there was fast growth in international food trade between 2009 and 2019, new central bank regulations – focused on an import-substitution strategy to mitigate foreign exchange constraints – have altered trade substantially since. 3. Consumption: The categories of unprocessed and especially of minimally processed food products represent 64 and 23 percent of calories and food expenditures respectively, reflecting the importance of rice in Myanmar’s food economy. After the twin crises, the value of food consumption significantly decreased by 30 and 36 percent for rural and urban areas respectively between 2020 and 2022. However, consumption levels for rural residents are still lower after the crises than those of urban ones. Moreover, while real food consumption expenditures declined significantly for all income groups, the poorest suffered most from the crises as seen in the higher reduction of expenditures for the poorest quintiles (by 31 and 39 percent in rural and urban areas respectively).
Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.
Groundnut, sesame, soybean, and sunflower crops are grown across Myanmar. Nationally, 15 percent of farmers were engaged in oilseed cultivation in the post/pre-monsoon 2023 season, while 17 percent of farmers planted oilseeds in the 2022 monsoon season. Among the agro-ecological zones, the Dry Zone had the largest share of farmers growing oilseeds as their most important non-paddy crop. At the same time, the percentage of farmers who grew oilseeds as their most important non-paddy crop in 2023 declined overall and in the Dry Zone compared to the post/pre monsoon seasons of 2022 and 2021. In the post/pre-monsoon 2023 season, 7 and 6 percent of the farmers grew sesame and groundnut, respectively. Only 2 percent of farmers grew soybeans while 1 percent grew sunflowers. Groundnut, sunflower, and sesame were mainly grown in the Dry Zone, while soybean was mainly grown in the Hills and Mountainous Region. The farm size of oilseed growing households was slightly larger than that of the average crop growing household, 5.7 acres compared with 4.7 acres. Most oilseed farmers specialize in oilseed production and plant more than half of their cultivated acres to oilseeds. Oilseed farmers grew oilseeds on 64 percent of their cultivated acres in the 2023 pre/post monsoon season and 36 percent of their cultivated acres in the monsoon season.
Over the last decade, farms in Myanmar have gone through important market transitions. On the input side, imports of chemical fertilizer increased four-fold and agro-chemicals eight-fold while 55 percent more farmers were using mechanization rental services between 2011 and 2020. On the output side, three-quarters of Myanmar’s crop production is sold, indicating high market orientation, especially so for non-paddy crops. However, farm commercialization in Myanmar started from a low base and is still lagging peer countries in the region. The twin crises in 2020 and 2021 (the covid-19 and the political crisis) and international market developments have further led to increasing worries for an agricultural market transformation on hold or in reverse, as seen by a decline in imports of modern inputs, driven by price increases of inputs, currency policy changes, insecurity, and reduced profitability for most crop farmers. To improve farm commercialization and to catch up with peers, a better and secure business environment, openness to trade, further diversification, and improved infrastructure is called for.
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
The recent history of rural economic transformation in Myanmar and the effects of COVID-19 and the military coup in February 2021 provide important lessons for the design and implementation of plans to help the country recover from these scourges. The impoverishment of farming communities in Myanmar during decades of socialist military rule, beginning in the 1960s until the turn of the century, led to an outflux of migrants to neighboring countries. As the country opened up to foreign investment through economic reforms initiated in 2011, rural wages surged and farm mechanization services expanded rapidly. Together with increased remittance flows from migrants, higher rural household incomes drove growth in a wide range of non-farm service enterprises. Nevertheless, agricultural growth was low and most crop subsectors stagnated due to underlying and unresolved structural constraints such as poor infrastructure and inequality in land access. As in many other countries in Asia, border closures and lockdowns instituted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020 resulted in widespread employment and income losses. The Myanmar government pro-actively sought to mitigate the impacts through expanded credit to farmers and businesses. By the end of 2020, Myanmar was beginning to recover from the economic stresses of COVID-19. However, the February 2021 military coup resulted in a far more severe economic downturn than COVID-19 due to the collapse of the financial system, the massive resignations by public sector employees, and the prolonged movement restrictions. Coup-induced state failure greatly magnified the health and economic consequences of COVID-19 in terms of poverty, food insecurity, and stalled economic transformation. This paper uses a combination of macro, meso, and micro-level analyses to measure the impacts of COVID-19 and state failure on rural economic transformation through the lens of the agri-food system, and to draw lessons for policies to support broad-based and resilient economic recovery.
This open access book examines the interactions between India’s economic development, agricultural production, and nutrition through the lens of a “Food Systems Approach (FSA).” The Indian growth story is a paradoxical one. Despite economic progress over the past two decades, regional inequality, food insecurity and malnutrition problems persist. Simultaneously, recent trends in obesity along with micro-nutrient deficiency portend to a future public health crisis. This book explores various challenges and opportunities to achieve a nutrition-secure future through diversified production systems, improved health and hygiene environment and greater individual capability to access a balanced diet contributing to an increase in overall productivity. The authors bring together the latest data and scientific evidence from the country to map out the current state of food systems and nutrition outcomes. They place India within the context of other developing country experiences and highlight India’s status as an outlier in terms of the persistence of high levels of stunting while following global trends in obesity. This book discusses the policy and institutional interventions needed for promoting a nutrition-sensitive food system and the multi-sectoral strategies needed for simultaneously addressing the triple burden of malnutrition in India.
Malnutrition, largely attributable to poor diets among both the rich and poor, presents a growing challenge in Nigeria. This brief considers the obstacles to food security and better nutrition, particularly the country’s macroeconomic instability, widespread poverty, and the need for greater investment and policy coherence to support dietary diversity. The authors describe how a policy shift to focus on consumer needs can transform the agrifood system to deliver healthier and more affordable diets for all Nigerians, as well as better and more secure rural livelihoods.
Updates for many countries have made it possible to estimate hunger in the world with greater accuracy this year. In particular, newly accessible data enabled the revision of the entire series of undernourishment estimates for China back to 2000, resulting in a substantial downward shift of the series of the number of undernourished in the world. Nevertheless, the revision confirms the trend reported in past editions: the number of people affected by hunger globally has been slowly on the rise since 2014. The report also shows that the burden of malnutrition in all its forms continues to be a challenge. There has been some progress for child stunting, low birthweight and exclusive breastfeeding, but at a pace that is still too slow. Childhood overweight is not improving and adult obesity is on the rise in all regions. The report complements the usual assessment of food security and nutrition with projections of what the world may look like in 2030, if trends of the last decade continue. Projections show that the world is not on track to achieve Zero Hunger by 2030 and, despite some progress, most indicators are also not on track to meet global nutrition targets. The food security and nutritional status of the most vulnerable population groups is likely to deteriorate further due to the health and socio economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report puts a spotlight on diet quality as a critical link between food security and nutrition. Meeting SDG 2 targets will only be possible if people have enough food to eat and if what they are eating is nutritious and affordable. The report also introduces new analysis of the cost and affordability of healthy diets around the world, by region and in different development contexts. It presents valuations of the health and climate-change costs associated with current food consumption patterns, as well as the potential cost savings if food consumption patterns were to shift towards healthy diets that include sustainability considerations. The report then concludes with a discussion of the policies and strategies to transform food systems to ensure affordable healthy diets, as part of the required efforts to end both hunger and all forms of malnutrition.
As a result of recent political reforms, Myanmar has the opportunity to enact major policy changes to reinvigorate its agriculture sector. In this context, Myanmar’s rubber sector has the potential to become an even greater source of export earnings and rural household incomes, but there are major challenges related to low rubber productivity and poor rubber quality. Using data from the Mon State Rural Household Survey (MSRHS) conducted from May to June 2015, as well as qualitative data collected from rubber producer focus groups and other interviews with rubber producers, traders, and processors, this paper describes the cost structure of rubber production in Mon State. We then estimate smallholder production costs and the profitability of smallholder rubber production under various alternative yield and price scenarios. The results suggest that if the weaknesses hindering the profitability of the rubber sector are not addressed, the rubber sector will likely stagnate. Moreover, in the absence of a major increase in world prices (substantially above the 2000–2016 average), new rubber investments will not be profitable without major improvements in yield and quality. Further, increasing only yields or only quality, or only improving the institutional environment, will not result in positive returns on investment for smallholders; reforms are needed in all three areas. If these weaknesses are addressed, however, Myanmar’s new investments will be profitable and Myanmar could become an important rubber producer and exporter on the world stage.