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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
China's future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper. Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the world's leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regime's power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate? In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by China's leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of China's future for all those seeking to understand the country's likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.
This four-volume work analyzes the stability problems in the Soviet system. Volume 1 contains the conflicting views of scholars from America, Europe, and Australia, all of whom predict changes that they believe will soon shape the Soviet future. The interrelated topics of economics and society are discussed in volume 2. Economic difficulties in the USSR are always problems of political power. Gorbachev's economic reforms, if successful, could lead to the creation of a society that is self-sufficient in many respects. That, in turn, would reduce the extent of the state and the power of its apparatus and would undermine Soviet leaders' economic decision making power, on which the political system rests. The ideological and cultural crisis is perhaps the most fundamental and fateful one facing the USSR today. Volume 3--devoted to the many aspects of this crisis--deals with the issues of multinationalism and predicts the collapse of the Soviet system in Russia as unavoidable. Volume 4 consists of 19 analyses of the Soviet future by Sovietologists.
Bill Gates's Five Books for Summer Reading 2019 From world-renowned economist Paul Collier, a candid diagnosis of the failures of capitalism and a pragmatic and realistic vision for how we can repair it. Deep new rifts are tearing apart the fabric of the United States and other Western societies: thriving cities versus rural counties, the highly skilled elite versus the less educated, wealthy versus developing countries. As these divides deepen, we have lost the sense of ethical obligation to others that was crucial to the rise of post-war social democracy. So far these rifts have been answered only by the revivalist ideologies of populism and socialism, leading to the seismic upheavals of Trump, Brexit, and the return of the far-right in Germany. We have heard many critiques of capitalism but no one has laid out a realistic way to fix it, until now. In a passionate and polemical book, celebrated economist Paul Collier outlines brilliantly original and ethical ways of healing these rifts—economic, social and cultural—with the cool head of pragmatism, rather than the fervor of ideological revivalism. He reveals how he has personally lived across these three divides, moving from working-class Sheffield to hyper-competitive Oxford, and working between Britain and Africa, and acknowledges some of the failings of his profession. Drawing on his own solutions as well as ideas from some of the world’s most distinguished social scientists, he shows us how to save capitalism from itself—and free ourselves from the intellectual baggage of the twentieth century.
Soviet efforts to end the Cold War were intended to help revitalize the USSR. Instead, Nick Bisley argues, they contributed crucially to its collapse. Using historical-sociological theory, The End of the Cold War and the Causes of Soviet Collapse shows that international confrontation had been an important element of Soviet rule and that the retreat from this confrontational posture weakened institutional-functional aspects of the state. This played a vital role in making the USSR vulnerable to the forces of economic crisis, elite fragmentation and nationalism which ultimately caused its collapse.
This four-volume work analyzes the stability problems in the Soviet system. Volume 1 contains the conflicting views of scholars from America, Europe, and Australia, all of whom predict changes that they believe will soon shape the Soviet future. The interrelated topics of economics and society are discussed in volume 2. Economic difficulties in the USSR are always problems of political power. Gorbachev's economic reforms, if successful, could lead to the creation of a society that is self-sufficient in many respects. That, in turn, would reduce the extent of the state and the power of its apparatus and would undermine Soviet leaders' economic decision making power, on which the political system rests. The ideological and cultural crisis is perhaps the most fundamental and fateful one facing the USSR today. Volume 3--devoted to the many aspects of this crisis--deals with the issues of multinationalism and predicts the collapse of the Soviet system in Russia as unavoidable. Volume 4 consists of 19 analyses of the Soviet future by Sovietologists.
"Spufford cunningly maps out a literary genre of his own . . . Freewheeling and fabulous." —The Times (London) Strange as it may seem, the gray, oppressive USSR was founded on a fairy tale. It was built on the twentieth-century magic called "the planned economy," which was going to gush forth an abundance of good things that the lands of capitalism could never match. And just for a little while, in the heady years of the late 1950s, the magic seemed to be working. Red Plenty is about that moment in history, and how it came, and how it went away; about the brief era when, under the rash leadership of Khrushchev, the Soviet Union looked forward to a future of rich communists and envious capitalists, when Moscow would out-glitter Manhattan and every Lada would be better engineered than a Porsche. It's about the scientists who did their genuinely brilliant best to make the dream come true, to give the tyranny its happy ending. Red Plenty is history, it's fiction, it's as ambitious as Sputnik, as uncompromising as an Aeroflot flight attendant, and as different from what you were expecting as a glass of Soviet champagne.