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The message of sunspots from the interior of the Sun to the Earth's climate When Galileo was summoned before the Inquisition on April 12, 1633, the main accusations laid against him concerned the doubts he expressed about Aristotle's theory of the universe. Aristotle's idea was that the Earth was the centre of the cosmos and that all of the stars, including the Sun, turned around it. Moreover, for Aristotle and the world of the Inquisitors, the Sun was a perfect celestial body. Now, Galileo had discovered spots on the Sun. These spots were seen as imperfections, and not just surface markings, but coming from within the Sun. Worse yet, they revolved around the Sun. All this supported the newfangled theory of Copernicus, and undermined a system of thought that had reigned supreme for centuries. Man of science that he was, and a prudent Catholic too, Galileo strived all his life to prove that Copernicus' astronomical concept was compatible with the word of the Bible. He proposed that there were not two truths but a single divine truth. It was just expressed in two different languages : there was the language of the common people, with its imprecision and inconsistencies, but intuitively understandable by everyone; and then there was the precise language of science with its strict regard for observation, which only a chosen few can grasp [L. Geymonat. 1992].
The luminosity of the sun governs the temperatures of the planets. Yet the solar forcing, or driving, of climate, primarily due to changes in solar radiation, has never been well documented. Recent satellite measurements have shown that solar radiation varies as a function of time and wavelength, a concept that has been hypothesized for the past two centuries and has recently become a major topic with all the attention paid to global warming. This book reviews the physics of the concept of solar forcing, from its beginnings in the early 1800's and apparent success in the 1870's, to its near demise in the 1950's and recent resurgence. Since its emphasis is on solar variations as a driver for climate change, with only a brief discussion of other mechanisms, the book will be of most interest to students in climate studies.
Are variations in the energy generated by the Sun sufficient to modify the Earth's global environment at levels comparable to expected anthropogenic changes? Debated contentiously for more than a century, this question must now be posed with new urgency: the proper specification of natural global changes is a prerequisite for detecting anthropogenic impacts. Important advances over the past decade in our knowledge of the Sun and of the terrestrial responses to solar variability provides the basis for answering this question with unprecedented surety, but significant uncertainties remain. This book addresses current monitoring and understanding of solar influences on both the climate system and the ozone layer and prioritizes the research effort that will be needed to provide a sound scientific basis for policymaking related to global change issues.
This book provides an updated overview of the processes determining the influence of solar forcing on climate. It discusses in particular the most recent developments regarding the role of aerosols in the climate system and the new insights that could be gained from the investigation of terrestrial climate analogues. The book’s structure mirrors that of the ISSI workshop held in Bern in June 2005.
In its revised 2nd edition, this book examines current understanding of the relationship between sunspots and the Earth's climate. Opening with a brief historical review, the text moves on to scrutinize the various current hypotheses. The focus is on how information on the solar cycle and Earth's climate is gathered, and includes discussion of observations, methododology and the physics involved, with the necessary statistics and analysis also provided.
Measurements of solar irradiance, both bolometric and at various wavelengths, over the last two decades have established conclusively that the solar energy flux varies on a wide range of time scales, from minutes to the 11-year solar cycle. The major question is how the solar variability influences the terrestrial climate. The Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22 (SOLERS22) is an international research program operating under the auspices of the Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (STEP) Working Group 1: `The Sun as a Source of Energy and Disturbances'. STEP is sponsored by the Scientific Committee of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). The main goal of the SOLERS22 1996 Workshop was to bring the international research community together to review the most recent results obtained from observations, theoretical interpretation, empirical and physical models of the variations in the solar energy flux and their possible impact on climate studies. These questions are essential for researchers and graduate students in solar-terrestrial physics.
Are variations in the energy generated by the Sun sufficient to modify the Earth's global environment at levels comparable to expected anthropogenic changes? Debated contentiously for more than a century, this question must now be posed with new urgency: the proper specification of natural global changes is a prerequisite for detecting anthropogenic impacts. Important advances over the past decade in our knowledge of the Sun and of the terrestrial responses to solar variability provides the basis for answering this question with unprecedented surety, but significant uncertainties remain. This book addresses current monitoring and understanding of solar influences on both the climate system and the ozone layer and prioritizes the research effort that will be needed to provide a sound scientific basis for policymaking related to global change issues.
21. Simulating Future Climate G. J. Boer 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489 2 International Aspects . . . . . . . . . . . 490 3 Simulating Historical and Future Climate 492 4 Climate Change in the 20th Century . . . 495 5 Simulating Future Climate Change 498 6 Climate Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation 501 7 Summary . 502 Index 505 PREFACE Numerical modeling ofthe global atmosphere has entered a new era. Whereas atmospheric modeling was once the domain ofa few research units at universities or government laboratories, it can now be performed almost anywhere thanks to the affordability of computing power. Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are being used by a rapidly growing scientific community in a wide range of applications. With widespread interest in anthropogenic climate change, GCMs have a role also in informing policy discussions. Many of the scientists using GCMs have backgrounds in fields other than atmospheric sciences and may be unaware of how GCMs are constructed. Recognizing this explosion in the application of GCMs, we organized a two week course in order to give young scientists who are relatively new to the field of atmospheric modeling a thorough grounding in the basic principles on which GCMs are constructed, an insight into their strengths and weaknesses, and guid ance on how meaningful numerical experiments are formulated and analyzed. Sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and other institu tions, this Advanced Study Institute (ASI) took place May 25-June 5, 1998, at II Ciocco, a remote hotel on a Tuscan hillside in Italy.
Proceedings of an ISSI Workshop, 28 June - 2 July 1999, Bern, Switzerland
This book addresses six key factors that will affect environmental policies in the Mediterranean region during the next fifty years: population growth, climate change, soil erosion and desertification, water scarcity, food production, and urbanization and pollution. The authors assess these as potential sources of violent conflict. The interdisciplinary approach makes this a relevant and useful reference for a broad range of professionals, specialists and researchers.