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How Contrarians Bet Against the Market and Win—and You Can Too Standing out from the crowd goes against our natural instinct. Which is, of course, why it works. With the relentless growth of passive investing—investors blindly following the market—the opportunities for a smart investor to profit by betting against the crowd should be greater than ever. Yet, being a contrarian is hard work. You need to adopt a sceptical mindset: a flexible mode of thinking that allows you to stand back and spot when the market’s view of the world is badly out of touch with reality—and the best way to profit when reality eventually reasserts itself. In The Sceptical Investor, John Stepek, Executive Editor of MoneyWeek, pulls together the latest research on behavioural finance, and examples from well-known contrarian investors, to offer practical techniques to help you spot opportunities in common investment situations, from turnaround plays to bubbles and busts, that others in the market miss. JOHN STEPEK has been writing about business, economics and investment for more than 20 years. He is the Executive Editor of MoneyWeek, a bestselling weekly investment magazine.
Everyone wants to be a contrarian investor. From the hedge funds who bet against the US housing market in the run up to 2008, to George Soros’s billion-dollar bet against the Bank of England in 1992, some of the most famous and most profitable trades in history have been contrarian calls. And with the relentless growth of passive investing - investors blindly following the market - the opportunities for a smart investor to profit by betting against the crowd should be greater than ever. Yet being a contrarian is hard work. It takes patience, the conviction to stand by an unpopular viewpoint, and the mental toughness to endure being 'wrong' for prolonged periods of time. Standing out from the crowd goes against our every natural instinct. Which is, of course, why it works. So how do you go about it? There is no single, mechanical investment approach that marks an investor out as a contrarian. Instead, you need to adopt a sceptical mindset: a flexible mode of thinking that allows you to stand back and spot when the market’s view of the world is badly out of touch with reality - and the best way to profit when reality eventually reasserts itself. In The Sceptical Investor, John Stepek, executive editor of MoneyWeek, pulls together the latest research on behavioural finance, and examples from well-known contrarian investors, to offer practical techniques to help you to spot opportunities in common investment situations, from turnaround plays to bubbles and busts, that others in the market miss. It won't make you popular and it won't make you famous. But it will make you money.
An insightful and original look at why understanding macroeconomics is essential for all investors
Behavioural investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. All too many investors are unaware of the mental pitfalls that await them. Even once we are aware of our biases, we must recognise that knowledge does not equal behaviour. The solution lies is designing and adopting an investment process that is at least partially robust to behavioural decision-making errors. Behavioural Investing: A Practitioner’s Guide to Applying Behavioural Finance explores the biases we face, the way in which they show up in the investment process, and urges readers to adopt an empirically based sceptical approach to investing. This book is unique in combining insights from the field of applied psychology with a through understanding of the investment problem. The content is practitioner focused throughout and will be essential reading for any investment professional looking to improve their investing behaviour to maximise returns. Key features include: The only book to cover the applications of behavioural finance An executive summary for every chapter with key points highlighted at the chapter start Information on the key behavioural biases of professional investors, including The seven sins of fund management, Investment myth busting, and The Tao of investing Practical examples showing how using a psychologically inspired model can improve on standard, common practice valuation tools Written by an internationally renowned expert in the field of behavioural finance
Now more than ever, people are being affected by the fluctuations in the global economy and by financial uncertainty - with major impacts on their savings, portfolios and pensions. Fully updated for this fourth edition, How the Stock Market Works tells investors what is being traded and how, who does what with whom, and how to evaluate a particular share or bond in light of rival claims from critics and admirers. From the practical consequences of being a shareholder to a basic coverage of the taxation regime, the book provides a wealth of information on individual product types as well as the key players themselves.
During bull and bear markets, there is a group of hedge funds and professional traders which have been consistently outperforming traditional investment strategies for the past 30 odd years. They have shown remarkable uncorrelated performance and in the great bear market of 2008 they had record gains. These traders are highly secretive about their proprietary trading algorithms and often employ top PhDs in their research teams. Yet, it is possible to replicate their trading performance with relatively simplistic models. These traders are trend following cross asset futures managers, also known as CTAs. Many books are written about them but none explain their strategies in such detail as to enable the reader to emulate their success and create their own trend following trading business, until now. Following the Trend explains why most hopefuls fail by focusing on the wrong things, such as buy and sell rules, and teaches the truly important parts of trend following. Trading everything from the Nasdaq index and T-bills to currency crosses, platinum and live hogs, there are large gains to be made regardless of the state of the economy or stock markets. By analysing year by year trend following performance and attribution the reader will be able to build a deep understanding of what it is like to trade futures in large scale and where the real problems and opportunities lay. Written by experienced hedge fund manager Andreas Clenow, this book provides a comprehensive insight into the strategies behind the booming trend following futures industry from the perspective of a market participant. The strategies behind the success of this industry are explained in great detail, including complete trading rules and instructions for how to replicate the performance of successful hedge funds. You are in for a potentially highly profitable roller coaster ride with this hard and honest look at the positive as well as the negative sides of trend following.
Although many people consider bloody-mindedness and stubbornness as being perfect qualifications for a contrarian investor, the approach is in fact a little different than that. Yes, it requires one to act against the crowd. However, it is futile to do so without good reason. A naiÌ?ve contrarian investor pops into a pub looking for a fight and is delighted if his first opponent is Lennox Lewis. A more seasoned contrarian looks to fight only little old ladies. But looking for the right opponent in a local pub is far from straightforward - little old ladies can sometimes be veteran jujitsu champions - and detecting the easier battles in the stock market is similarly challenging. At first blush, many stocks are attractive and other appealing stocks may initially look like dogs. There is no trustworthy shortcut to separate the dogs from the delightful. The long cut is the implementation of much hard work. Hard work as in understanding a company's business model, why other investors hate it, what positive factors they might have missed, how its balance sheet and cash flow interact, and whether its valuation is sufficiently attractive. None of that is rocket science perhaps, but that does not make it easy. The bull arguments are often well hidden and can only be discovered through meticulous work, a sceptical mindset, and deep thought. In this collection of his writings, top fund manager Alastair Mundy takes a contrarian look at a host of topics and issues, providing a range of ideas and approaches and encouraging investors to think hard about their approach to investment. This book should be essential reading for any investor - contrarian or otherwise.
3rd edition with new foreword by Ian Cassel Wouldn't life be better if you were free of the daily grind - the conventional job and boss - and instead succeeded or failed purely on the merits of your own investment choices? Free Capital is a window into this world. Based on a series of interviews, it outlines the investing strategies, wisdom and lifestyles of 12 highly successful private investors. Each of them has accumulated $1 million or more - in most cases considerably more - mainly from stock market investment. Some have several academic degrees or backgrounds in professional finance; others left school with few qualifications and are entirely self-taught as investors. Some invest most of their money in very few shares and hold them for years at a time; others make dozens of trades every day, and hold them for at most a few hours. Some are inveterate networkers, who spend their day talking to managers at companies in which they invest; for others a share is just a symbol on a screen, and a price chart shows most of what they need to know to make their trading decisions. Free capital - money surplus to immediate living expenses - is the raw material with which these investors work. It can also be thought of as their psychological habitat, free from the petty tribulations of office politics. Lastly, free capital describes the footloose nature of their assets, which can be quickly redirected towards any type of investment anywhere in the world, without the constraints which institutional investors often face. Although it presents many advanced insights and valuable investment hints, this is not an overly technical book. It offers practical ideas and inspiration, with revealing detail and minimal jargon, making it an indispensable read for novice and experienced investors alike. *** This third edition of Free Capital follows the text of the second edition, published in 2013, with the addition of a new foreword by Ian Cassel. ***
In The Smart Money Method, the stock-picking techniques used by top industry professionals are laid bare for investors. This is the inside track on how top hedge funds pick stocks and build portfolios to make outsize returns. Stephen Clapham is a retired hedge fund partner who now trains stock analysts at some of the world’s largest and most successful institutional investors. He explains step-by-step his research process for picking stocks and testing their market-beating potential. His methodology provides the tools and techniques to research new stock ideas, as well as maintain and eventually sell an investment. From testing your thesis and making investment decisions, to managing your portfolio and deciding when to buy and sell, The Smart Money Method covers everything you need to know to avoid common pitfalls and invest with confidence. Unique insight is presented in several specific areas, including how to: • Find stock ideas • Assess the quality of any business • Judge management’s ability • Identify shady accounting and avoid dying companies • Value any business to find bargain shares • Navigate the consequences of COVID-19 And throughout, there are real-life investing examples and war stories from a 25-year career in stock markets. The message is clear – you can beat the market. To do so, you need to learn and apply the insider secrets contained within this book.
The investment markets have never been more dangerous. Interest rates are at all-time lows; the sanctity of cash deposits is under threat; government bonds are expensive and offer ultra-low or negative yields; equity markets are largely detached from reality after years of loose monetary policy. Investors need to calibrate themselves to the realities of this extraordinary new environment so that they can protect their wealth and, ideally, prosper. In Investing Through the Looking Glass, longstanding portfolio manager and investment columnist Tim Price identifies and shatters a number of investment myths and misconceptions. He questions whether stock markets inevitably rise over the longer term, whether bonds continue to be relevant as a failsafe low-risk asset, whether professional fund managers represent "smart money", and much more besides. But this is not just a counsel of despair. Having identified the problems besetting today's investor, the focus then moves on to practical guidance to help investors preserve and grow their capital in this age of inflationary and deflationary uncertainty. Tim Price provides ideas on how to find attractive investments in distorted equity markets, on what might be the best-kept secret in finance, and how best to insure portfolios in an environment of heightened systemic risk. Investing Through the Looking Glass presents a route map for navigating one of the most challenging financial environments that anyone has ever seen. For the sake of your wealth, can you afford not to read it?