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"Vietnam's balancing of power act, namely the policy of seeking a counterweight to the China threat, and the politics of the U.S.-Vietnam-China triangle, may have taken shape in the early years of the twenty-first century, but it was deeply rooted in the changing relations between the big powers in the 1980s and Vietnam's need to adjust its policy to these changes. A combination of factors - geographical proximity, ideological affinity, and the need for regime survival tends to make Vietnamese leaders more comfortable with China than with the United States. Only the perception of China as a bullying neighbour would push Vietnam to opt for a different orientation and adopt an antagonistic policy towards China. Meanwhile, United States-Vietnam relations in turn are affected by two factors: Vietnam's sensitivity to China's concerns and its mistrust of U.S. intentions. Bilateral relations became warmer mainly after Vietnam took steps to overcome its mistrust of the United States. China's recent assertive behaviour in the South China Sea worries Vietnam and threatens the U.S. position in the Asia-Pacific, and this has led to a convergence of strategic interests between the United States and Vietnam. In brief, the U.S.-China-Vietnam triangular relations and the South China Sea disputes may be seen as manifestations of two sets of conflicting visions. At the local level, is the vision of China dominating the South China Sea, which clashes with Vietnam's perennial dream of being a balcony looking out to the Pacific Ocean. If this clash of visions cannot be reconciled, China will always have to face the discomfort of simmering resentment and opposition from a proud nation at its border. At the global and regional level is the vision of a rising China seeking a respected place in the world, and de facto control of the sea area within its nine-dash line. This clashes with U.S. determination to remain an uncontested naval power that is able to protect freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. Unless one or both of these visions are modified, a new cold war, not a new type of big power relations, in the Asia-Pacific is inevitable. The smaller countries in Southeast Asia will be forced to take sides or be chosen in the bargaining process between the two major powers."--Provided by publisher
Based on new archival research in many countries, this volume broadens the context of the U.S. intervention in Vietnam. Its primary focus is on relations between China and Vietnam in the mid-twentieth century; but the book also deals with China's relations with Cambodia, U.S. dealings with both China and Vietnam, French attitudes toward Vietnam and China, and Soviet views of Vietnam and China. Contributors from seven countries range from senior scholars and officials with decades of experience to young academics just finishing their dissertations. The general impact of this work is to internationalize the history of the Vietnam War, going well beyond the long-standing focus on the role of the United States.
One of Chinese president Xi Jinping's signature foreign policy programs is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a web of infrastructure development plans designed to increase Eurasian economic integration. Chinese official rhetoric on the BRI focuses on its economic promise and progress, often in altruistic terms: all countries have been invited to board this "express train" to wealth and prosperity. Missing from the rhetoric is much discussion of the initiative's security dimensions and implications. Chinese officials avoid describing the strategic benefits they think the BRI could produce, while also gliding over major security risks and concerns. Yet at the unofficial level, China's security community has paid close attention to these issues, probing in great depth the gains Beijing can expect, the challenges it will face, and the new demands it will have to satisfy. Understanding those Chinese assessments is helpful as the United States considers how, when, and in what capacity to engage the BRI.
After the end of the Cold War, it seemed as if Southeast Asia would remain a geopolitically stable region within the American-led order for the foreseeable future. In the last two decades, however, the re-emergence of China as a major great power has called into question the geopolitical future of the region and raised the specter of renewed great power competition. As the eminent China scholar David Shambaugh explains in Where Great Powers Meet, the United States and China are engaged in a broad-gauged and global competition for power. While this competition ranges across the entire world, it is centered in Asia. In this book, Shambaugh focuses on the critical sub-region of Southeast Asia. The United States and China constantly vie for position and influence across this enormously significant area--and the outcome of this contest will do much to determine whether Asia leaves the American orbit after seven decades and falls into a new Chinese sphere of influence. Just as importantly, to the extent that there is a global "power transition" occurring from the US to China, the fate of Southeast Asia will be a good indicator. Presently, both powers bring important assets to bear in their competition. The United States continues to possess a depth and breadth of security ties, soft power, and direct investment across the region that empirically outweigh China's. For its part, China has more diplomatic influence, much greater trade, and geographic proximity. In assessing the likelihood of a regional power transition, Shambaugh examines how ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and its member states maneuver and the degree to which they align with one or the other power.
This book examines the unfolding new relationship between Vietnam and the United States (US) since the end of the Cold War, discussing how the relationship has emerged as one of the most intriguing facets of the regional geopolitical landscape and how the two countries turned from staunch adversaries to partners within the span of four decades after the end of the Vietnam War. It explains in particular the interplay between international relations factors, such as the US’ rivalry with China, and domestic factors in both countries, which, the book argues, are crucial to understanding the changing relationship. Overall, the book provides many insights into Vietnamese foreign policy and a rich context for those seeking to understand the prospects of closer Vietnam–US ties or actually trying to broaden the vistas of bilateral cooperation between Hanoi and Washington.
With the rise of China and massive new migrations, China has adjusted its policy towards the Chinese overseas in Southeast Asia and beyond. This book deals with Beijing’s policy which has been a response to the external events involving the Chinese overseas as well as the internal needs of China. It appears that a rising China considers the Chinese overseas as a source of socio-political and economic capital and would extend its protection to them whenever this is not in conflict with its core national interest. The impacts on and the responses of the relevant countries, especially those in Southeast Asia, are also examined
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
This book analyses international relations between the USA, China, and Russia and provides an overview of how the US-China-Russia triangle has evolved over time. Based on a forensic examination of primary documentation from US archives, the author illustrates how the US strategic perspectives on Chinese–Russian relations have developed since the late-19th century. The author demonstrates how US relations with the Russian and Chinese empires began expanding into greater sophistication and complexity in the 19th century, reflecting changing US concerns, priorities, and preferences vis-à-vis Sino-Russian dynamics which themselves, too, were evolving in parallel and, in some instances, in an interactive fashion. The book analyses US perceptions of Sino-Russian interactions in ways which, from the US perspective, affected US interests, either positively or negatively.
"A superb book.…Mearsheimer has made a significant contribution to our understanding of the behavior of great powers."—Barry R. Posen, The National Interest The updated edition of this classic treatise on the behavior of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate international relations in the twenty-first century: Can China rise peacefully? In clear, eloquent prose, John Mearsheimer explains why the answer is no: a rising China will seek to dominate Asia, while the United States, determined to remain the world's sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to prevent that from happening. The tragedy of great power politics is inescapable.
“Southeast Asian Affairs, first published in 1974, continues today to be required reading for not only scholars but the general public interested in in-depth analysis of critical cultural, economic and political issues in Southeast Asia. In this annual review of the region, renowned academics provide comprehensive and stimulating commentary that furthers understanding of not only the region’s dynamism but also of its tensions and conflicts. It is a must read.” –Suchit Bunbongkarn, Emeritus Professor, Chulalongkorn University “Now in its forty-fifth edition, Southeast Asian Affairs offers an indispensable guide to this fascinating region. Lively, analytical, authoritative, and accessible, there is nothing comparable in quality or range to this series. It is a must read for academics, government officials, the business community, the media, and anybody with an interest in contemporary Southeast Asia. Drawing on its unparalleled network of researchers and commentators, ISEAS is to be congratulated for producing this major contribution to our understanding of this diverse and fast-changing region, to a consistently high standard and in a timely manner.” –Hal Hill, H.W. Arndt Professor of Southeast Asian Economies, Australian National University