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A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the history of the modern global economy seems to support the long-held view that the currency of the world’s leading power invariably dominates international trade and finance. But in How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists overturn this conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries and marshaling extensive new data to test current theories of how global currencies work, the authors show that several national monies can share international currency status—and that their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. In fact, they show that multiple international and reserve currencies have coexisted in the past—upending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance before 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s postwar dominance. Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, including how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.
Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 the central banks of the advanced countries have taken unprecedented actions to reflate and stimulate their economies. There have been significant differences in the timing and pace of these actions. These independent monetary policy actions have had significant spillover effects on the economies and monetary policy strategies of other advanced countries. In addition the monetary policy actions and interventions of the advanced countries have had a significant impact on the emerging market economies leading to the charge of 'currency wars.' The perceived negative consequences of spillovers from the actions of national central banks has led to calls for international monetary policy coordination. The arguments for coordination based on game theory are the same today as back in the 1980s, which led to accords which required that participant countries follow policies to improve global welfare at the expense of domestic fundamentals. This led to disastrous consequences. An alternative approach to the international spillovers of national monetary policy actions is to view them as deviations from rules based monetary policy. In this view a return to rules based monetary policy and a rolling back of the " global great deviation" by each country's central bank would lead to a beneficial policy outcome without the need for explicit policy coordination. In this book we report the results from a recent conference which brought together academics, market participants, and policy makers to focus on these issues. The consensus of much of the conference was on the need for a classic rules based reform of the international monetary system.
Recent events have reignited the debate over the future of the international monetary system. This book, part of the Integrating National Economic series, examines international monetary options of the twenty-first century. Barry Eichengreen argues that it will not be possible for governments to prevent exchange rates from exceeding prespecified limits. Changes in technology, market structure, and politics will force countries that have traditionally pegged their exchange rates to choose between floating rates and monetary unification. Eichengreen describes the various international monetary arrangements with which policymakers have experimented in the past. He introduces the requirements that an international monetary system must satisfy and illustrates how these requirements have been met over time. He analyzes which preconditions for the smooth operation of international monetary systems in the past will be impossible to achieve in the next century and creates a list of feasible options for future policymakers. These feasible options, he concludes, will be limited to some form of floating exchange rates and monetary unions. In which direction countries should move is not obvious. The choice between floating and monetary unification depends on a host of economic and political factors. The book provides an in-depth analysis of Western Europe's experience and the dramatic international monetary initiatives currently under way, and compares options for Asia, Africa, the former Soviet Union, and the Western Hemisphere. A volume of Brookings' Integrating National Economies Series
This book examines essential problems in the current International Monetary System, especially those concerning the International Standard. To do so, it focuses on the different monetary systems of today’s major currencies – the US dollar, the euro and the CNY, as well as the performance of the standards used in the international monetary system, i.e., the SDRs. In addition, it projects the potential consequences of including the Chinese CNY in the current SDR system, thus proposing a reform of the SDRs. The analytical research is mainly based on a performance comparison of the major international standards in the current international monetary system. divThe author illustrates that the political/policy reactions and economic philosophies underlying each monetary system constitute not only reasonable responses to the current international monetary system, but also fundamental factors in decisions concerning changes to or reforms of the international monetary system.div>
In September 1985, emissaries of the world's five leading industrial nations—the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Japan—secretly gathered at the Plaza Hotel in New York City and unveiled an unprecedented effort to correct the largest set of current account and exchange rate imbalances that had ever threatened the world economy. The Plaza Accord is credited with sharply realigning exchange rates, significantly reducing current account imbalances, and countering protectionist pressures in the United States. But did the Accord provide a foundation for ongoing international financial stability and policy coordination? Or was it simply a unique one-time coincidence of national interests? The Plaza experience continues to inform today's debates about the limits and possibilities of international monetary cooperation. In late 2015, leading policymakers and economists—including those who were involved in the Accord's design, negotiation, and implementation—held a Plaza Retrospective conference at the Baker Institute for Public Policy to evaluate the Accord's legacy and how its collaborative spirit can be applied today. This volume presents their views and analyses to provide guidance for a time when the world again faces the prospect of currency disequilibria, growing imbalances, trade policy reactions, and thus uncertainty for both the global economy and world politics.
It is, as a critic of U.S.
The international monetary system, and the disparate systems that make it up, are complex and there are many fallacies surrounding the ways in which they work. This book provides a clear and rigorous understanding of these systems and their possible consequences.
This volume provides an analysis of the global monetary system and proposes a comprehensive yet evolutionary reform of the system aimed at creating better monetary cooperation for the twenty-first century.
This paper discusses the extent to which national capital markets have become linked, and identifies several of the more important consequences of that increased degree of integration. Alternative approaches to the measurement of capital market integration are reviewed, including deviations from the law of one price, differences between actual and optimally diversified portfolios, correlations between domestic investment and domestic saving, and cross-country links in consumption behavior. Two recent episodes of large-scale international capital flows—namely, the turmoil in the European Monetary System in the fall of 1992, and the surge of capital inflows into Latin America during the last three years—are examined for insights into the workings of today’s global capital market. Finally, the paper offers some concluding remarks on the future development of international capital markets, on exchange rate management, on alternative approaches to living with larger and more influential financial markets, and on the financing of investment in the formerly centrally planned economies.