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The rise of the renminbi and what it means for forex markets Chinese authorities have ambitious plans to "internationalize" the renminbi, transforming it from a tightly controlled domestic legal tender into a global currency for international trade, held by both private and public sector asset managers. The Offshore Renminbi examines this impending currency revolution, outlining why the emergence of China as a major economic power will likely soon be matched by a transformation of the renminbi's role in the global financial system. It explains how new markets for "offshore" renminbi are developing outside mainland China since the country is not yet ready to fully open up its economy to international capital flows, and the regulations that govern them. The potential growth for the renminbi market is vast, thanks to China's role in the global trading community. The early stages of the internationalization effort were small-scale, but momentum has greatly increased over the past 18 months, making this book more relevant than ever. These developments offer new opportunities (and challenges) for corporate treasurers and investors, as China's profound economic success and growing prominence in global trade may transform offshore renminbi into a new global reserve currency and a legitimate competitor to the U.S. dollar. Explores how the "internationalization" of the renminbi is likely to yield a new global currency to rival the U.S. dollar Examines "offshore" renminbi and the host of new financial markets they have created, from a spot FX market to Dim Sum bonds in Hong Kong Covers broad themes of interest to general readers and policymakers, as well as more detailed issues of practical and direct importance to corporate treasurers and investors The Chinese government has ambitious plans to make the renminbi a global currency. The Offshore Renminbi explains the complexities of this strategy and the dramatic implications for the global FX markets.
Over the past two decades, China's robust economic performance has propelled it to the world stage. At the same time, the world has increasingly scrutinized China's economic policies and activities. One of the hotly contested issues is China's foreign exchange rate policy. China's current reform and modernization policies to convert its centrally planned economy towards a market-driven one could hardly draw on experiences of other countries.This book provides a succinct and up-to-date account of China's exchange rate policy including the currency undervaluation debate and the internationalization of its currency. It begins with a brief history of the modern China's foreign exchange rate policy. In particular, it highlights the three Chinese policy characteristics; namely, independence, controllability and practicability, and graduality. This prologue helps to interpret China's policy on its currency, the renminbi (RMB); including its recent initiatives to promote the international use of its currency.The book covers the basic theoretical and empirical issues that are relevant for determining the equilibrium value of the RMB exchange rate and, hence, its degree of misalignment. Then it evaluates the controversy surrounding the RMB valuation debate, and highlights the sensitivity of empirical estimates of the degree of misalignment to alternative presumptions.The book also examines the timely issues related to China's recent efforts in promoting the use of its currency in the global financial market. After describing the background of China's recent efforts to internationalize the RMB, the book a) discusses the main promotional policies, including the recent Qianhai project and Shanghai Free Trade Zone initiative, b) evaluates the current status of the offshore RMB market, the level of international use of the RMB and the admission to the SDR basket, and c) assesses the future prospects of the RMB to be a global currency.
With the internationalization of Renminbi (RMB), the gradual liberalization of China's capital account and the recent reform of the RMB pricing mechanism, the RMB exchange rate has been volatile. This book examines how we can forecast exchange rate reliably. It explains how we can do so through a new methodology for exchange rate forecasting. The book also analyzes the dynamic relationship between exchange rate and the exchange rate data decomposition and integration, the domestic economic situation, the international economic situation and the public’s expectations and how these interactions would affect the exchange rate. The book also explains why this comprehensive integrated approach is the best model for optimizing accuracy in exchange rate forecasting.
China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.
A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the "redback." Following the global financial crisis of 2008, China's major monetary policy objective is the internationalization of the renminbi, that is, to create an inter-national role for its currency akin to the international role currently played by the U.S. dollar. Renminbi internationalization is a hot topic, for good reason. It is, essentially, a window onto the Chinese government's aspirations and the larger process of economic and financial transformation. Making the renminbi a global currency requires rebalancing the Chinese economy, developing the country's financial markets and opening them to the rest of the world, and moving to a more flexible exchange rate. In other words, the internationalization of the renminbi is a monetary and financial issue with much broader supra-monetary and financial implications. This book offers a new perspective on the larger issues of economic, financial, and institutional change in what will eventually be the world's largest economy.
China's currency, the renminbi, has taken the world by storm. This book documents the renminbi's impressive rise to global prominence in a short period but also shows how much further it has to go before becoming a major international currency. The hype about its inevitable ascendance to global dominance is overblown.
RESPATIALISING FINANCE ‘In Respatialising Finance Sarah Hall uses the internationalisation of the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) to work through a sympathetic conceptual and empirical critique of prevailing analyses of International Financial Centres (IFCs). Her conceptual (re)framing stresses the politics, institutions and economics of IFCs and will be essential reading for all social scientists interested in the dynamism of contemporary finance and financial centres.’ Professor Jane Pollard, Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies (CURDS), Newcastle University, UK ‘Through detailed study of Chinese RMB internationalisation and combining analytical insights from economic geography, sociology, and international political economy, Sarah Hall shows why offshore networks anchored in territories such as the City of London are both core to global monetary and financial landscapes, and provide a key terrain for state power and politics.’ Professor Paul Langley, Department of Geography, Durham University, UK Respatialising Finance is one of the first detailed empirical studies of how and why London became the leading western financial centre within the wider Chinese economic and political project of internationalising its currency, the renminbi (RMB). This in-depth volume examines how political authorities in both London and Beijing identified the potential value of London’s international financial centre in facilitating and legitimising RMB internationalisation, and how they sought to operationalise this potential through a range of market-making activities. The text features original data from on-the-ground research in London and Beijing conducted with financial and legal professionals working in RMB markets and offers an original theoretical approach that brings economic geography into closer dialogue with international political economy. Recent work on territory illustrates how financial centres are not simply containers and facilitators of global financial flows – rather they serve as territorial fixes within the dynamic and crisis-prone nature of global finance.
With its per capita income surpassing US$10,000, China has now drawn up ambitious plans to further lift its income to the level of developed countries. Yet various constraints need to be overcome if China is to build on the achievements of the last 40 years and further boost its growth potential. Besides these constraints, the year 2020 saw human societies hit heavily by the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economy caught off guard and dipped into recessions caused by lockdown measures for controlling the spread of the pandemic. Nations around the world have experienced grave loss of human life and lockdown measures have knocked economies from their normal growth trajectories. Even as the pandemic continues to unfold, all signs point to China as being the first major economy to have emerged out of the crisis. But many questions remain. Has the Chinese economy emerged from the pandemic crisis relatively unscathed? What are the long-term prospects for its economy? This year’s Update book, China’s Challenges in Moving towards a High-income Economy, explores the challenges faced by the Chinese economy in the transition towards a high-income economy, including agricultural development, finance and fiscal system reform, RMB internationalisation, trends in urbanisation, as well as topics related to innovation, corporate sector development and market competition. China’s growth experience has been full of exciting changes and important lessons for reform and structural changes, and this year’s China Update is again the way to gain insights into these.
This book collects expert opinions, research, and risk assessments from within the Chinese financial policy establishment on prospects for the internationalization of the renminbi as a reserve currency around the world. As China's economy diversifies in the acquisition of global assets, the renminbi may partially displace the dollar or yen as a reserve currency, with unpredictable and profound potential consequences. This book, presenting for the first time in English, the Chinese perspective on the internationalization of the Chinese currency will be of great value to central bankers, financiers, and students of international finance.
China's rise as an economic powerhouse raises a number of questions that are the subject of lively debate. How did the country do it? How applicable are the lessons of China's economic reform of the past thirty years to the challenges it faces in the next three decades? What does the detailed pattern of China's success and challenges look like at the sub-sectoral and sub-national levels, and what does this mean for future policy? How will China's role as a global economic player evolve? The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China presents an original collection of perspectives on the Chinese economy's past, present, and future: 99 entries written by the leading China analysts of our time. The topics covered include: the China model, future prospects for China , China and the global economy, trade and the Chinese economy, macroeconomics and finance, urbanisation, industry and markets, agriculture and rural development, land, infrastructure, and environment, population and labour, dimensions of wellbeing and inequality, health and education, gender equity, regional divergence in China, and a selection of perspectives on some of China's provinces. The Editors are four global leaders in Chinese economic analysis and policy who between them have held or hold the following positions: Director General, International Food Policy Research Institute; Co-Editor, China Economic Review; President Chinese Economists Society; Assistant Director of Research at the IMF; Principal Adviser to the Chief Economist of the World Bank; and Professors of Economics at Ivy League Universities.