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In this paper the authors introduce a new hybrid approach based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high quantiles of return distributions. The approach is suitable for measuring market risk in the emerging markets. It is designed to capture the empirical features of returns with emerging markets, such as leptokurtosis, asymmetry, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity.
Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications presents a broad overview of statistical modeling of extreme events along with the most recent methodologies and various applications. The book brings together background material and advanced topics, eliminating the need to sort through the massive amount of literature on the subje
This book provides a cutting edge introduction to market risk management for Hedge Funds, Hedge Funds of Funds, and the numerous new indices and clones launching coming to market on a near daily basis. It will present the fundamentals of quantitative risk measures by analysing the range of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models used today, addressing the robustness of each model, and looking at new risk measures available to more effectively manage risk in a hedge fund portfolio. The book begins by analysing the current state of the hedge fund industry - at the ongoing institutionalisation of the market, and at its latest developments. It then moves on to examine the range of risks, risk controls, and risk management strategies currently employed by practitioners, and focuses on particular risks embedded in the more classic investment strategies such as Long/Short, Convertible Arbitrage, Fixed Income Arbitrage, Short selling and risk arbitrage. Addressed along side these are other risks common to hedge funds, including liquidity risk, leverage risk and counterparty risk. The book then moves on to examine more closely two models which provide the underpinning for market risk management in investment today - Style Value-at-Risk and Implicit Value-at-Risk. As well as full quantitative analysis and backtesting of each methodology, the authors go on to propose a new style model for style and implicit Var, complete with analysis, real life examples and backtesting. The authors then go on to discuss annualisation issues and risk return before moving on to propose a new model based on the authors own Best Choice Implicit VaR approach, incorporating quantitative analysis, market results and backtesting and also its potential for new hedge fund clone products. This book is the only guide to VaR for Hedge Funds and will prove to be an invaluable resource as we embark into an era of increasing volatility and uncertainty.
As an integrated method to measure finance risks, value-at-risk(VaR) has been investigated widely in recent years. This paper introduces a new model to compute VaR--Extreme Value Theory(EVT). It gives parametric estimations of the tail distribution by means of second order expansion. A procedure and program named quot;two step subsample bootstrapquot; was developed to find the start point of extreme and to estimate VaR. The computation result of JPY/USD foreign exchange presented at last proved that the EVT method has a good character in estimating VaR.
Directly oriented towards real practical application, this book develops both the basic theoretical framework of extreme value models and the statistical inferential techniques for using these models in practice. Intended for statisticians and non-statisticians alike, the theoretical treatment is elementary, with heuristics often replacing detailed mathematical proof. Most aspects of extreme modeling techniques are covered, including historical techniques (still widely used) and contemporary techniques based on point process models. A wide range of worked examples, using genuine datasets, illustrate the various modeling procedures and a concluding chapter provides a brief introduction to a number of more advanced topics, including Bayesian inference and spatial extremes. All the computations are carried out using S-PLUS, and the corresponding datasets and functions are available via the Internet for readers to recreate examples for themselves. An essential reference for students and researchers in statistics and disciplines such as engineering, finance and environmental science, this book will also appeal to practitioners looking for practical help in solving real problems. Stuart Coles is Reader in Statistics at the University of Bristol, UK, having previously lectured at the universities of Nottingham and Lancaster. In 1992 he was the first recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's research prize. He has published widely in the statistical literature, principally in the area of extreme value modeling.
This book presents an integrated framework for risk measurement, capital management and value creation in banks. Moving from the measurement of the risks facing a bank, it defines criteria and rules to support a corporate policy aimed at maximizing shareholders' value. Parts I - IV discuss different risk types (including interest rate, market, credit and operational risk) and how to assess the amount of capital they absorb by means of up-to-date, robust risk-measurement models. Part V surveys regulatory capital requirements: a special emphasis is given to the Basel II accord, discussing its economic foundations and managerial implications. Part VI presents models and techniques to calibrate the amount of economic capital at risk needed by the bank, to fine-tune its composition, to allocate it to risk-taking units, to estimate the "fair" return expected by shareholders, to monitor the value creation process. Risk Management and Shareholders' Value in Banking includes: * Value at Risk, Monte Carlo models, Creditrisk+, Creditmetrics and much more * formulae for risk-adjusted loan pricing and risk-adjusted performance measurement * extensive, hands-on Excel examples are provided on the companion website www.wiley.com/go/rmsv * a complete, up-to-date introduction to Basel II * focus on capital allocation, Raroc, EVA, cost of capital and other value-creation metrics