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In spite of a growing body of Soviet military literature which expressly addresses the problem of foresight and forecasting in military affairs, very little has been written on this important topic in the West. Professor John Erickson has pointed out that 'Forecasting has become something of a favourite Soviet pasttime' indeed more than that, for it has been endowed with a certain ideological rectitude ... ' Forecasting (prognozirovanie), which includes highly sophisticated techniques employed in operations research and systems analysis, in this context, has become a basic tool in the exercise of foresight (predvidenie), and foresight in the political and military realms is viewed as a weapon, which the skilled commander wields against his opponent. While Soviet authors freely acknowledge all the difficulties associated with foresight in military affairs, making it much more difficult than in other realms, they still see the skill as a key to victory over an opponent. (fr).
The book provides a rather broad review on an international scale of recent thinking on the subject of scientific planning, forecasting, and decisionmaking as it relates to the military. The scientific approach to these matters is observed to be highly essential in an age in which scientific and technical development gives rise to rapid changes in weapons and techniques. The results of the use of nuclear weapons are likely to be such as to deny decisionmakers the luxury approach to their task. Scientific forecasting is proposed as a means of ensuring the rapid production of soundly based information on which to make proper decisions in military affairs. It is not put forth as a substitute for the thinking of talented and experienced military experts but as a means for them to achieve their decisions in a more timely and scientific manner. The authors employ a mathematical-statistical approach in arriving at their hypothetical forecasts, and, particularly because of the numerous examples of forecasting situations to which these techniques are applied, those involved or interested in the activity should be able to confirm their understanding of the methods of arrival at the various conclusions.
Contents: The Methodology of Foresight and Forecasting in Soviet Military Affairs; Impact of the Dialectical Process: Periods of Military Development; The Future Development of the Soviet Army: Weaponry, Military Doctrine, and Military Organizations; Foresight and Forecasting from the Soviet Military Encyclopedia; Anticipated Directions for Change in Tactics of Ground Troops from the Polish Ground Forces Review. (sdw).
This book analyzes existing and developing methods of forecasting (heuristic, mathematical, and composite) and examines their use in solving various military problems. It demonstrates the errors inherent in all the methods and how they affect the results of decisions that can be made and the final results of operations. The fields of application of particular methods are discussed and concrete examples are given. The book is intended for a wide range of military readers and for workers in industry and related educational institutions.