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The U.S. Air Force is grappling with the challenge of aging fleets and the optimal time to replace them. This monograph examines commercial aviation data to draw inferences about aging aircraft that may be relevant to the Air Force. It focuses on "aging effects"-i.e., how aircraft maintenance costs change as aircraft grow older. Although commercial aircraft clearly differ from military aircraft, the aging-effect estimates might help the Air Force to project changing maintenance costs over time.
This monograph examines "aging effects"--I.e., how commercial aircraft maintenance costs change as aircraft grow older. Although commercial aircraft clearly differ from military aircraft, commercial aviation aging-effect estimates might help the Air Force to project how its maintenance costs will change over time.
This dissertation's objective is to assist the Air Force (AF) in making difficult yet necessary choices regarding its aging fleets in order to fulfill national security objectives at lowest cost. Costs related to maintenance are a key component to the AF's decision-making process. In general, AF fleets are aging. This motivates the AF to want accurate maintenance cost forecasts. Forecasts of its current fleets and future replacement fleets are necessary. This dissertation will use commercial airline data to help the AF make these difficult choices.

Aging Aircraft

United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. Subcommittee on Aviation

Published: 1989

Total Pages: 104


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Part of a larger RAND Project Air Force study on capability-based programming, this report introduces a revealed preference methodology to estimate the value to the United States Air Force of expediting F-15 fighter jet programmed depot maintenance (PDM). Such a valuation estimate would be useful in depot-level cost-benefit analysis. The authors rely on the fact that the Air Force has chosen to pay for intermittent PDM on F-15s to assert that F-15s must have enough value after PDM visits to justify PDM costs. Air Force expenditure data suggest that a typical fiscal year 2005 PDM visit cost about $3.2 million. Using the aircraft valuation curves consistent with PDM being worthwhile, the authors find that expediting an F-15's last PDM visit by a month must be worth at least $60,000. However, using a plausible annual aircraft valuation decline rate, they find that expediting an old F-15's last PDM visit by a month would be worth around $75,000, while expediting a new F-15's first PDM visit by a month would be worth more than $180,000. This report also explores various robustness enhancements. Consideration of aging aircraft issues, for instance, tends to increase the estimated value of expedited PDM.
The major objective of this book was to identify issues related to the introduction of new materials and the effects that advanced materials will have on the durability and technical risk of future civil aircraft throughout their service life. The committee investigated the new materials and structural concepts that are likely to be incorporated into next generation commercial aircraft and the factors influencing application decisions. Based on these predictions, the committee attempted to identify the design, characterization, monitoring, and maintenance issues that are critical for the introduction of advanced materials and structural concepts into future aircraft.