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The EMU accession countries are obliged to fulfill the Maastricht convergence criteria prior to entering the EMU. What should be the optimal monetary policy satisfying these criteria? To answer this question, the paper proposes a DSGE model of a two-sector small open economy. First, I derive the micro founded loss function that represents the objective function of the optimal monetary policy not constrained to satisfy the criteria. I find that the optimal monetary policy should not only target inflation rates in the domestic sectors and aggregate output fluctuations but also domestic and international terms of trade. Second, I show how the loss function changes when the monetary policy is constrained to satisfy the Maastricht criteria. The loss function of such a constrained policy is characterized by additional elements penalizing fluctuations of the CPI inflation rate, the nominal interest rate and the nominal exchange rate around the new targets which are different from the steady state of the unconstrained optimal monetary policy. Under the chosen parameterization, the optimal monetary policy violates two criteria: concerning the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate. The constrained optimal policy is characterized by a deflationary bias. This results in targeting the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate that are 0.7% lower (in annual terms) than the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate in the countries taken as a reference. Such a policy leads to additional welfare costs amounting to 30% of the optimal monetary policy loss.
The creation of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the introduction of the euro is a historical event for the EU countries. The debates on the desirability of the EMU provoked a vast economic literature dealing with the theory of the optimum currency area, costs and benefits of the EMU, symmetric vs. asymmetric shocks, alternative mechanisms of adjustment in a monetary union and so forth. Until recently, for the Central European candidate countries for a full membership in the EU, these issues seemed to be too far away, as they concentrated on devising their own monetary and exchange rate systems suitable for their transition period. The challenges of the EMU for the Central European countries were practically not dealt with in both Western and Eastern economic literature. The present book aims to fill this gap, by focusing on the most direct issue of relevance for the Central European countries with respect to the EMU - why, how and when these countries are expected to join the EMU. The papers included in this volume study the relationship between the EU accession process of the Central European candidate countries and their involvement in the process of European monetary integration.
Master's Thesis from the year 2002 in the subject Economics - Monetary theory and policy, grade: 1.0 (A), Technical University of Berlin (-), 54 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: A rough 50 years after its foundation, the European Union (EU) is preparing for the probably most ambitious challenge of its existence, the binding-back into the West of the once centrally-planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC). Together with political and general economic efforts, European monetary integration also gains speed with as many as twelve CEEC queuing up for entry into the EU (not including Turkey, which has not yet officially begun entry negotiations), the first of them most likely joining the Union already two years after the physical introduction of the single currency, i.e. in 2004. Many of these countries are eager to also join Monetary Union (EMU) and show their ability to be ′good Europeans′ by adopting the Euro as soon as possible. Various statements by both CEEC-government officials and monetary authorities exemplify this very vividly. This implies that the enlargement of EMU is already a relevant issue. By the time it becomes acute, positions and perspectives of both applicants and current members should be clear, if unnecessary delays and political irritations are to be avoided. The body of literature on the subject is thus as large as the questions of when, how and on what terms CEEC-accession will take place are pressing, and becoming more so as time progresses. This study attempts to coherently examine the core issues related to EMU-enlargement, equally synthesising the various segmented approaches of the academic debate, and deduce normative conclusions as to what strategic outlook should seem appropriate to both CEEC and the current EMU-12: In what timeframe should accession most sensibly take place? How appropriate are the mechanics leading up to EMU, most prominently the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) and the Maastr
Seminar paper from the year 2006 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,0, Wayne State University (Department of Economics), course: Macroeconomics, language: English, abstract: On 1st May 2004 ten new member states joined the European Union (EU), e.g. Estonia, Poland and Slovenia. The countries won’t adopt the euro as their new currency immediately, because they first have to show that their economies have converged with the economy of the euro zone. Presently, the efforts and opinions of the new members differ about the adoption of the single currency. For instance, the Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa told the press in February 2006 that there “is nothing on the path ahead” that could endanger the euro adoption in 2007. The government pursues a tight fiscal policy to meet all entry requirements. Recently, it introduced a dual pricing – that means all prices of goods and services are marked in tolars as well as euros – to raise consumer awareness in the preparation for the euro adoption.1 Contrarily, other countries are skeptical. The leader of the Polish conservative party Jaroslaw Kaczynski said during a campaign that he “doesn’t see any benefits in adopting the euro. Euro adoption would lead to lower exports, lower national income and higher unemployment.” The Estonian Sirje Karu said in an interview, that “Estonians are scared. We heard that when Finland adopted the euro, it took them quite a while to get used to it and prices increased. The poorest suffered.” Using this situation as a background, it is interesting to analyze the euro adoption by accession states. How does the adoption process work? When should the euro be introduced and what macroeconomic effects does it have?
We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.