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In 1958, 1976, and 1985, Argentina experienced severe imbalances of its external accounts, which led to attempts at economic stabilization through an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. This book examines these IMF-supported programs and their success in alleviating Argentina's economic problems. Luigi Manzetti explores three aspects of the issue: the programs' impact on the Argentine economy from a policy management perspective; the methods by which different political regimes coped with similar problems and the level of their success; and the relationship between economic stabilization and political institutions, with particular emphasis on why IMF-supported programs encounter problems and how these problems can be overcome. Exploring the previously overlooked relationship between economic and public policies, Manzetti begins his study by examining the balance of payments problems that afflict developing countries along with the role played by the IMF in solving them. He assesses IMF involvement both in terms of economic theory and policy recommendations, portraying the academic debate that for years has surrounded the IMF. The peculiarities of the Argentine case are outlined, as are contending interpretations of the country's chronic economic crises. A set of three chapters fully details the stabilization plans of the Frondizi, Videla, and Alfonsin administrations. Finally, a concluding chapter argues that wrong assumptions by the IMF and the mistakes of Argentina's policy makers were responsible for the limited success of the programs. This work will be an important reference tool for courses in economic development and Latin American studies, as well as a useful resource for academic and professional libraries.
The debt crisis in Latin America has rekindled debate about the effects of the IMF's stabilization programs in the Third World. Critics contend that these programs have short-run recessionary impacts and damage prospects for long-term growth. In response, Fund economists point to cross-country studies revealing mixed impacts on growth rates coupled with significant success in achieving the IMF's stated goals: current account and balance-of-payments improvements and inflation rate reduction. Dr. Pastor argues that the traditional growth-oriented critique is theoretically misplaced, and he recasts Fund activities in terms of class and income distribution. Applying the methodology of previous Fund studies, he evaluates the effects of IMF programs in eighteen Latin American countries in the pre-crisis period (1965-1981).
This paper explains the IMF approach to economic stabilization. It argues that a Fund-supported program is a process, comprising six broadly defined phases, that evolves along a multiplicity of potential pathways. The paper discusses the three-pronged approach to stabilization at the core of all IMF-supported programs, stresses the iterative character of “financial programming,” and explains the rationale for setting quantitative performance criteria for fiscal and monetary policy in IMF-supported arrangements. A main theme is that IMF-supported programs contain a great deal of flexibility to respond both to differences in circumstances and to changes in conditions in individual cases.
The book covers a wide range of topics of relevance to policymakers in countries that have sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and those that receive SWF investments. Renowned experts in the field have contributed chapters. The book is organized around four themes: (1) the role and macrofinancial linkages of SWFs, (2) institutional factors, (3) investment approaches and financial markets, and (4) the postcrisis outlook. The book also discusses the challenges facing sovereign wealth funds in the coming years, from an inside perspective on countries, including Canada, Chile, China, Norway, Russia, and New Zealand. Economics of Sovereign Wealth Funds will contribute to a further understanding of the nature, strategies and behavior of SWFs and the environment in which they operate, as their importance is likely to grow in the coming years.
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.