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A close-up look at the struggle for democracy in Hong Kong. Hong Kong in the Shadow of China is a reflection on the recent political turmoil in Hong Kong during which the Chinese government insisted on gradual movement toward electoral democracy and hundreds of thousands of protesters occupied major thoroughfares to push for full democracy now. Fueling this struggle is deep public resentment over growing inequality and how the political system—established by China and dominated by the local business community—reinforces the divide been those who have profited immensely and those who struggle for basics such as housing. Richard Bush, director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on East Asia Policy Studies, takes us inside the demonstrations and the demands of the demonstrators and then pulls back to critically explore what Hong Kong and China must do to ensure both economic competitiveness and good governance and the implications of Hong Kong developments for United States policy.
A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the "redback." Following the global financial crisis of 2008, China's major monetary policy objective is the internationalization of the renminbi, that is, to create an inter-national role for its currency akin to the international role currently played by the U.S. dollar. Renminbi internationalization is a hot topic, for good reason. It is, essentially, a window onto the Chinese government's aspirations and the larger process of economic and financial transformation. Making the renminbi a global currency requires rebalancing the Chinese economy, developing the country's financial markets and opening them to the rest of the world, and moving to a more flexible exchange rate. In other words, the internationalization of the renminbi is a monetary and financial issue with much broader supra-monetary and financial implications. This book offers a new perspective on the larger issues of economic, financial, and institutional change in what will eventually be the world's largest economy.
China’s transformation into a dynamic private-sector-led economy and its integration into the world economy have been among the most dramatic global economic developments of recent decades. This paper provides an overview of some of the key aspects of recent developments in China’s macroeconomy and economic structure. It also surveys the main policy challenges that will need to be addressed for China to maintain sustained high growth and continued global integration.
This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and expansion of the service sector. Using household data, we provide evidence consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time. Model counterfactuals suggest that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China.
The World Trade Report 2017 discusses the effects of international trade and technological progress on labour market outcomes. It aims to provide an objective and balanced, research-based assessment of these effects in developed and developing countries and to inform readers about possible policy responses to adjustment problems and distributional effects, regardless of their sources. It is part of the response of the WTO to the current anti-trade rhetoric fuelled by concerns that trade may cause job losses and raise inequality.
China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is slowing, while consumption imports are slowly rising. The evolution of Chinese trade, investment, and consumption patterns offers opportunities and challenges to low-wage, low-income countries, including China’s neighbors in the Mekong region. Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., Myanmar, and Vietnam (the CLMV) are all open economies that are highly integrated with China. Rebalancing in China may mean less of a role for commodity exports from the region, but at the same time, the CLMV’s low labor costs suggest that manufacturing assembly for export could take off as China becomes less competitive, and as China itself demands more consumption items. Labor costs, however, are only part of the story. The CLMV will need to strengthen their infrastructure, education, governance, and trade regimes, and also run sound macro policies in order to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented by China’s transformation. With such policy efforts, the CLMV could see their trade and integration with global supply chains grow dramatically in the coming years.
This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.
China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been hailed as the biggest coming-out party in the history of capitalism. Its membership eventually will contribute to higher standards of living for its citizens and increased growth for its economy. But why would the Chinese communist regime voluntarily agree to comply with the many complex rules of the global trading system since it has already become the world's seventh largest trading country while avoiding these constraints by remaining outside the system? The answer to this question forms the basis for this new book. Nicholas Lardy explores the many pressures on the Chinese government, both external and internal, to comply with the standards of the rule-based international trading system. Lardy points out that, prior to entry into the WTO, China enjoyed high growth rates and more foreign direct investment than any other emerging economy. He draws on a wealth of scholarship and experience to explain how China's leadership expects to leverage the increased foreign competition inherent in its WTO commitments to accelerate its domestic economic reform program, leading to the shrinkage and transformation of inefficient, money-losing companies and hastening the development of a commercial credit culture in its banks. Lardy answers a number of other questions about China's new WTO membership, including its effects on bilateral trade with the United States; the possibility that China will use its power to reshape the WTO in the future; the degree to which the terms of China's entry were more or less demanding than those for other new members; the ability of China's economy to successfully open to new imports; and the prospects for new growth in various sectors of China's economy made possible by WTO accession. This book will become an important tool for those who wish to understand China's new role in the global trading system, to take advantage of the new opportunities for investment in China
The book explores the macroeconomic and sectoral employment implications (in agriculture, industry and services) of China's World Trade Organisation accession. It argues that while short-run employment losses may occur, in the longer term China will be able to generate additional employment particularly in the tertiary sectors; and that it can maintain its comparative advantage in labour-intensive exports by relocating production from high-cost coastal areas to the hinterland with abundant supply of cheap labour. It also argues that, although China is likely to benefit in the long run, in the short and medium term China is likely to face enormous problems, including increased unemployment as weaker links cease to be protected by tariffs, and the problem of restructuring state-owned enterprises.
The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty looks at the complex relationships between economic growth, poverty reduction and trade, and examines the challenges that poor people face in benefiting from trade opportunities. Written jointly by the World Bank Group and the WTO, the publication examines how trade could make a greater contribution to ending poverty by increasing efforts to lower trade costs, improve the enabling environment, implement trade policy in conjunction with other areas of policy, better manage risks faced by the poor, and improve data used for policy-making.