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Currently 2.5 million Syrians fleeing war have found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee-hosting country worldwide. This paper combines newly available data on the distribution of Syrian refugees across Turkey and the Turkish Labour Force Survey to assess their labor market impact. Syrian refugees are overwhelmingly employed informally, since they were not issued work permits, making their arrival a well-defined supply shock to informal labor. Consistent with economic theory our instrumental variable estimates, which also control for distance from the Turkish-Syrian border, suggest large-scale displacement of natives in the informal sector. At the same time, consistent with occupational upgrading, there are increases in formal employment for the Turkish - though only for men without completed high school education. Women and the high-skilled are not in a good position to take advantage of lower cost informal labor. The low educated and women experience net displacement from the labor market and, together with those in the informal sector, declining earning opportunities.
Civil war in Syria has resulted in more than four million refugees fleeing the country, of which 1.8 million have found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee-hosting country worldwide. This paper combines newly available data on the 2014 distribution of Syrian refugees across subregions of Turkey with the Turkish Labour Force Survey, to assess the impact on Turkish labor market conditions. Using a novel instrument, the analysis finds that the refugees, who overwhelmingly do not have work permits, result in the large-scale displacement of informal, low-educated, female Turkish workers, especially in agriculture. While there is net displacement, the inflow of refugees also creates higher-wage formal jobs, allowing for occupational upgrading of Turkish workers. Average Turkish wages have increased primarily as the composition of the employed has changed because of the inflow of refugees.
This report aims to document and evaluate the outcomes of the regional workshop on “Syrian Refugees and Integration of Syrians” held in İstanbul in February 2017. The workshop was organized by the Global Labour University (GLU) Alumni Network in Turkey in collaboration with International Centre for Development and Decent Work (ICDD), the University of Kassel, German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), International Labour Organization (ILO), Global Labour University (GLU), Boğaziçi University Centre for Educational Policy Studies (BEPAM) and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Turkey Office, with particular focus on the composition and narratives of the Syrian refugees through the “fishbowl session”. The report finds that Syrian refugees have a very difficult life in Turkey in terms of working conditions, living conditions, discrimination, bureaucracy, lack of enough regulation, child education, language barriers etc. One of the most important concerns for Syrian refugees is child labour. Owing to unemployment of Syrian adults, most parents are forced to send their kids to work. With ineffective state control on employment and labour market, employers prefer to recruit children who are paid low wages, thereby enabling them to make higher profits. The other problems Syrian refugees face in the labour markets are low wages, long working hours, employment without social insurance, late payment or non-payment of the wages, discrimination at the workplace, etc. Regarding accommodation, majority of the Syrian refugees live in a populous household, paying higher rents for lower quality houses in comparison with domestic people. In addition, the situation of Syrian refugees in Turkey has a strong gender dimension. The Syrian females work as precarious workers at the workplace. They are the most affected and vulnerable workers. In addition, Syrian female refugees also take the responsibility of the education of the children who face different types of discrimination at school, with which again Syrian female refugees have to struggle. These problems have created barriers for Syrian refugees in exercising their rights at the workplace and in taking services from public institutions including healthcare and education. Besides, as findings show, the Syrian refugees are placed in the lowest strata of the labour markets of Turkey.
Civil war in Syria, which started in March 2011, has led to a massive wave of forced immigration from the Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Overall, unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups - i.e., females, younger workers, and less-educated workers - have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes.
Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programs aim to reduce poverty by making welfare programs conditional upon the receivers' actions. That is, the government only transfers the money to persons who meet certain criteria. These criteria may include enrolling children into public schools, getting regular check-ups at the doctor's office, receiving vaccinations, or the like. They have been hailed as a way of reducing inequality and helping households break out of a vicious cycle whereby poverty is transmitted from one generation to another. Do these and other claims make sense? Are they supported by the available empirical evidence? This volume seeks to answer these and other related questions. Specifically, it lays out a conceptual framework for thinking about the economic rationale for CCTs; it reviews the very rich evidence that has accumulated on CCTs; it discusses how the conceptual framework and the evidence on impacts should inform the design of CCT programs in practice; and it discusses how CCTs fit in the context of broader social policies. The authors show that there is considerable evidence that CCTs have improved the lives of poor people and argue that conditional cash transfers have been an effective way of redistributing income to the poor. They also recognize that even the best-designed and managed CCT cannot fulfill all of the needs of a comprehensive social protection system. They therefore need to be complemented with other interventions, such as workfare or employment programs, and social pensions.
This book seeks to fill knowledge gaps on migration, remittances and diaspora in Africa.
This book examines the changing demographic situation of Syrian refugees and the host community in Turkey, one of the major refugee hosting countries in the world, relying on a recent representative dataset. Conflicts and the resulting unrest force people to flee their countries and take refuge in foreign lands. Such refugee movements across the world have increased significantly in recent times. Turkey accounts for the greatest refugee population in the world today. This has drastically impacted the Turkish demographics, leading to different demographic situations in refugee communities in the country. This book presents an in-depth research on the impact of forced displacement on the demographic behaviour of Syrian refugees in Turkey in general, and more specifically the way transformed family structures, unregistered children, fertility behaviours and early marriages impacted their lives. The book also contributes to the existing knowledge and discourse on refugee integration by shedding light on their experiences related to access to labour market opportunities and education opportunities, wellbeing and mobility. It also helps in linking demography of Syrian community to the socio-economic challenges in Turkey by means of incorporating crucial demographic variables into the analysis. Offering valuable insights into various dimensions of life, this book has an interdisciplinary appeal and will thus be a key resource for academics and scholars of demography, refugee studies, migration studies and sociology. It will also be a valuable and unique reference work for people in governments, international agencies and non-governmental organizations.
This study examines the effects of the recent influx of Syrian refugees on the Turkish labor market. Exploiting this natural experiment, we estimated the causal impacts of involuntary migration on labor market outcomes. We selected the five refugee-hosting regions with the highest number of refugees as treatment regions and four comparable regions with a low refugee-to-population ratio as control regions. Using a difference-in-differences estimation, we found that informal Turkish workers in the refugee-hosting regions were about 4% more likely to leave their job than workers in regions that did not widely host refugees. Such negative impacts on labor market outcomes became larger in 2014-2015 compared with 2012-2013. Furthermore, while females and older workers withdrew themselves from the labor market, males and younger workers become unemployed after the refugee influx.
Turkey: A necessary ally in a troubled region With the new administration in office, it is not clear whether the U.S. will continue to lead and sustain a global liberal order that was already confronted by daunting challenges. These range from a fragile European Union rocked by the United Kingdom’s exit and rising populism to a cold war-like rivalry with Russia and instability in the Middle East. A long-standing member of NATO, Turkey stands as a front-line state in the midst of many of these challenges. Yet, Turkey is failing to play a more constructive role in supporting this order--beyond caring for nearly 3 million refugees, mostly coming from the fighting in Syria--and its current leadership is in frequent disagreement with its Western allies. This tension has been compounded by a failed Turkish foreign policy that aspired to establish its own alternative regional order in the Middle East. As a result, many in the West now question whether Turkey functions as a dependable ally for the United States and other NATO members. Kemal Kirisci’s new book argues that, despite these problems, the domestic and regional realities are now edging Turkey toward improving its relations with the West. A better understanding of these developments will be critical in devising a new and realistic U.S. strategy toward a transformed Turkey and its neighborhood. Western policymakers must keep in mind three on-the-ground realities that might help improve the relationship with Turkey. First, Turkey remains deeply integrated within the transatlantic community, a fact that once imbued it with prestige in its neighborhood. It is this prestige that the recent trajectory of Turkish domestic politics and foreign policy has squandered; for it to be regained, Turkey needs to rebuild cooperation with the West. The second reality is that chaos in the neighborhood has resulted in the loss of lucrative markets for Turkish exports—which, in return, increases the value to Turkey of Western markets. Third, Turkish national security is threatened by developments in Syria and an increasingly assertive Russia, enhancing the strategic value of Turkey’s “troubled alliance” with the West. The big question, however, is whether rising authoritarianism in Turkey and the government’s anti-Western rhetoric will cease and Turkey’s democracy restored before the current fault lines can be overcome and constructive re-engagement between the two sides can occur. In light of these realities, this book discusses the challenges and opportunities for the new U.S. administration as well as the EU of re-engaging with a sometimes-troublesome, yet long-time ally.