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Korea is aging at a rapid pace, causing concern about the resulting socio-economic impacts. This study analyzes the expected changes in the financial markets and macroeconomic changes resulting from aging and seeks possible policy measures to mitigate the negative impacts of these changes. The estimated changes will be useful information for all market players to prepare for the future socio-economic changes.The policy implications based on the analyses are as follows: First, explore new roles for monetary policies. Second, use labor market approaches and financial market approaches together to respond to aging. Third, employ strategies using the income account to maintain current account balance.
The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
'While there already exists a crowded body of publications addressing the effect of an aging population on the economy, this monograph is most outstanding in presenting a global, in-depth analysis of the implications thereby generated for 23 developed and developing countries. . . Scholars, researchers, and practitioners everywhere will benefit immensely from this comprehensive work.' – H.I. Liebling, Choice 'Ron Lee and Andrew Mason's Population Aging and the Generational Economy is a demographic and economic tour-de-force. Their collaborative, intercontinental. . . study of aging, consumption, labor supply, saving, and private and public transfers is the place to go to understand global aging and its myriad and significant economic challenges and opportunities.' – Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston University, US 'The culmination of. . . work by Lee, Mason, and their collaborators from around the world to extend Samuelson's framework to accommodate realistic demography, empirical measurement of age-specific earnings, consumption, tax payments, and benefit receipts, the studies. . . demonstrate the power of this integrated economic-demographic framework to advance our understanding of critical public policy challenges faced by countries at different stages of demographic transition and population aging.' – Robert Willis, University of Michigan, US 'Lee and Mason have done scholars and practitioners a magnificent service by undertaking this comprehensive, compelling, and supremely innovative examination of the economic consequences of changes in population age structure. The book is a bona fide crystal ball. It will be a MUST READ for the next decade!' – David Bloom, Harvard School of Public Health, US 'Population Aging and the Generational Economy provides an encompassing account of what we know about population aging and the impact that this process will have on our economies. It does not confine itself to the advanced industrial countries, where aging has already been largely studied, but adopts a truly global perspective. I am sure it will become a key reference for researchers, students and those involved in policy-making in areas that are affected by population aging.' – Giuliano Bonoli, Swiss Graduate School of Public Administration (IDHEAP), Switzerland Over coming decades, changes in population age structure will have profound implications for the macroeconomy, influencing economic growth, generational equity, human capital, saving and investment, and the sustainability of public and private transfer systems. How the future unfolds will depend on key actors in the generational economy: governments, families, financial institutions, and others. This path-breaking book provides a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic effects of changes in population age structure across the globe. The result of a substantial seven-year research project involving over 50 economists and demographers from Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the United States, the book draws on a new and comprehensive conceptual framework – National Transfer Accounts – to quantify the economic lifecycle and economic flows across generations. It presents comprehensive estimates of both public and private economic flows between generations, and emphasizes the global nature of changes in population age structure that are affecting rich and poor countries alike. This unique and informative book will prove an invaluable reference tool for a wide-ranging audience encompassing students, researchers, and academics in fields such as demography, aging, public finance, economic development, macroeconomics, gerontology, and national income accounting; for policy-makers and advisers focusing on areas of the public sector such as education, health, pensions, other social security programs, tax policy, and public debt; and for policy analysts at international agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the UN.
As the United States and the rest of the world face the unprecedented challenge of aging populations, this volume draws together for the first time state-of-the-art work from the emerging field of the demography of aging. The nine chapters, written by experts from a variety of disciplines, highlight data sources and research approaches, results, and proposed strategies on a topic with major policy implications for labor forces, economic well-being, health care, and the need for social and family supports.
All major industrial countries will experience significant population aging over the next several decades. In both academic circles and the business press it is widely believed that population aging will have important effects on financial markets because of its expected impact on saving rates and the demand for investment funds. This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic and asset market effects of population aging, focusing on four related issues: (a) The impact of population age structure on aggregate household saving; (b) The effect of population aging on investment demand; (c) Evidence on the influence of population age structure on financial market asset prices and returns; and (d) Effects of globalization on our interpretation of the impact of demographic change.
This upper level textbook provides a coherent introduction to the economic implications of individual and population ageing. Placing economic considerations into a wider social sciences context, this is ideal reading not only for advanced undergraduate and masters students in health economics and economics of ageing, but policy makers, professionals and practitioners in gerontology, sociology, health-related sciences, and social care. This volume introduces topics in labour economics, including the economic implications of ageing workforces. It covers pension economics and pension systems with their macroeconomic and distributive effects, and the question of risk. Finally, it describes macroeconomic consequences of ageing populations on aggregate saving, inflation, international trade, and financial markets.
"A number of financial market analysts have argued that the aging of the "Baby Boom" cohort contributed to the rise U.S. asset values during the 1990s, and that asset prices will decline when this group reaches retirement age and begins to draw down its wealth. This paper explores the importance of changing demographic structure for asset returns, asset prices, and the composition of household balance sheets in the United States. Standard models suggest that equilibrium returns on financial assets will vary in response to changes in population age structure. While the direction of the effect of demographic changes is not controversial, the quantitative importance of such changes for financial markets is open to debate. The paper presents several strands of empirical evidence that bear on this issue. First, it describes current age-specific patterns of asset holding in the United States, and finds that asset holdings rise sharply when households are in their 30s and 40s. Aside from the automatic decline in the value of defined benefit pension assets as households age, however, other financial assets decline only gradually during retirement. When these data are used to project asset demands in light of the future age structure of the U.S. population, they do not show a sharp decline in asset demand between 2020 and 2050. This finding calls into question the "asset market meltdown" view. Second, the paper considers the historical association between population age structure and real returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and corporate stock. The evidence suggests only modest effects, if any, of a changing demographic mix. Statistical tests based on the few effective degrees of freedom in the historical record of age structure and asset returns have limited power to detect such effects. There is a stronger historical correlation between asset levels, as measured for example by the price-dividend ratio, and summary measures of the population age structure. Once again, however, the results are sensitive to choices about econometric specification. These empirical findings provide modest support, at best, for the view that asset prices could decline as the share of households over the age of 65 increases"--Prelim.
The book gives an overview of the implications of population ageing on economic development and financial systems. It describes several challenges which the ageing process poses for central banks, giving special consideration to the situation in Europe. The first two chapters discuss the relationship between ageing and saving and between ageing and international capital flows. Other chapters consider the possible implications for financial markets. The final part raises issues which are of particular relevance for central banks, namely ageing and financial stability and how ageing will affect monetary policy.
Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging synthesizes the economic literature on aging and the subjects associated with it, including social insurance and healthcare costs, both of which are of interest to policymakers and academics. These volumes, the first of a new subseries in the Handbooks in Economics, describe and analyze scholarship created since the inception of serious attention began in the late 1970s, including information from general economics journals, from various field journals in economics, especially, but not exclusively, those covering labor markets and human resource issues, from interdisciplinary social science and life science journals, and from papers by economists published in journals associated with gerontology, history, sociology, political science, and demography, amongst others. Dissolves the barriers between policymakers and scholars by presenting comprehensive portraits of social and theoretical issues Synthesizes valuable data on the topic from a variety of journals dating back to the late 1970s in a convenient, comprehensive resource Presents diverse perspectives on subjects that can be closely associated with national and regional concerns Offers comprehensive, critical reviews and expositions of the essential aspects of the economics of population aging
There is long-standing debate on how population growth affects national economies. A new report from Population Matters examines the history of this debate and synthesizes current research on the topic. The authors, led by Harvard economist David Bloom, conclude that population age structure, more than size or growth per se, affects economic development, and that reducing high fertility can create opportunities for economic growth if the right kinds of educational, health, and labor-market policies are in place. The report also examines specific regions of the world and how their differing policy environments have affected the relationship between population change and economic development.