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The Financial Action Task Force’s gray list publicly identifies countries with strategic deficiencies in their AML/CFT regimes (i.e., in their policies to prevent money laundering and the financing of terrorism). How much gray-listing affects a country’s capital flows is of interest to policy makers, investors, and the Fund. This paper estimates the magnitude of the effect using an inferential machine learning technique. It finds that gray-listing results in a large and statistically significant reduction in capital inflows.
The background papers support the stocktaking analysis and the proposed way forward for the 2023 review of the IMF's AML/CFT Strategy. The five background papers provide in-depth discussions on the following key topics: (i) illicit financial flows; (ii) the impact of money laundering in financial stability; (iii) synergies between financial integrity issues and other Fund policies and work; (iv) the Fund’s collaboration with key partners in the AML/CFT global policy architecture; and (v) stakeholders’ views of the effectiveness of the Fund’s AML/CFT engagement.
This paper reviews the Fund’s efforts to safeguard financial integrity and proposes the way forward for the Fund’s Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Strategy. For over 20 years, the IMF has recognized that effective AML/CFT frameworks, and financial integrity more broadly, are key to the soundness and stability of the financial sector and to prevent the negative macroeconomic implications of financial crimes on the broader economy of members, progressively integrating this work across all its core functions and in a broad set of Fund policies. The paper takes stock of the implementation of the IMF's AML/CFT strategy since 2018. It also proposes deepening the integration of financial integrity issues and an enhanced focus on the macroeconomic impact of AML/CFT issues for the way forward.
The paper advocates leveraging anti-money laundering (AML) measures to enhance tax compliance, tackle tax crimes, and, in turn, help mobilize domestic revenues. While AML measures have already been deployed to improve tax compliance, including during the European debt crisis, the benefits that such measures could bring to the integrity of the tax system are yet to be fully realized. In recent years, the relevance of AML measures for tax purposes resurfaced in public discourse in light of numerous data leaks that provided ample evidence of the closely intertwined nature of tax crimes and money laundering. There might now be the right political momentum for greater utilization of AML measures given post-pandemic calls for a more progressive tax system, elevated sovereign debt burdens, a challenging global economic outlook, and widespread cost-of-living crisis. In this context, the IMF has stressed the importance of rebuilding fiscal buffers, as countries with more fiscal room are better placed to weather the economic slowdown and protect households and businesses.
This book explores the politics of money laundering and terrorist financing (ML/TF) regulation in several countries across Africa and the Small Island States. Developed countries created the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to combat ML/TF globally. Expectedly, the FATF’s standards mirror existing banking regulations within the G7 countries. Yet, the standards apply to all countries irrespective of the limited ML/TF risks they pose to the global economy, their weak pre-conditions for effective regulation and their non-involvement in the FATF’s framing. Still, such countries, mainly within the Global South, have worked hard to amplify their compliance with the regime due to fears of the repercussions of their non-compliance. This collection demonstrates how the global ML/TF regulation is treated as an implicitly superior legal regime where the Global South must comply irrespective of their perception of the FATF’s legitimacy challenges. It shows that beyond exogenous factors such as neo-colonialism, endogenous factors such as weak institutions and corruption undermine the compliance trajectory of the Global South. Furthermore, it analyses the unintended consequences of transplanting FATF standards into diverse legal and cultural contexts. The volume contributes to our understanding of the challenges of transplantation from the Global North and how the Global South is steering within the constraints created by the FATF. It advocates for a comprehensive understanding of the nuanced compliance challenges of developing countries. It further proposes practical solutions to address them, emphasizing the importance of risk-based understanding, accountability, capacity-building and coordination in achieving effective anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing measures. The collection will be essential reading for researchers, academics and policy-makers working in financial crime regulation and international economic law.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Following the companion paper on the new policy challenges related to the adoption of digital forms of money, this paper presents an operational strategy for the IMF to continue delivering on its mandate of ensuring domestic and international financial and economic stability. The paper begins by summarizing the forces driving the adoption of digital forms of money, and the new policy questions that emerge. It then focusses on how the IMF’s core activities and output will need to evolve, including surveillance, capacity development, and analytical foundations. It ends by discusses how the IMF intends to partner with other organization, and to grow and structure internal resources to fulfill this vision.
The Covid-19 pandemic has aggravated the tension between large development needs in infrastructure and scarce public resources. To alleviate this tension and promote a strong and job-rich recovery from the crisis, Africa needs to mobilize more financing from and to the private sector.
The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2019 and 2018