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After remaining stable for several decades, corn price has recently had unprecedented price increases and volatility. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts an average corn price of $5.80 per bushel for 2008, which is 232% of its 28-year (1980-2007) average price of $2.50. The record increase in corn price was the result of increased starch-based ethanol production associated with increased energy costs, and other factors such as a declining value in the United States dollar, and increased global commodity demand. High corn prices have impacted the profitability of the livestock feeding industry. It was less clear how the record high corn prices would affect the cow-calf industry since corn is not a significant input for cow-calf enterprises. This study quantified the relationship between cow-calf profitability and corn price. Because feed costs for a cow-calf producer are among the highest variable costs for the operation, both grazing and non-grazing feed costs were estimated as a function of corn price. Models were estimated to determine if a relationship between corn price and Returns Over Variable Costs (ROVC) at the cow-calf level could be identified. Corn price from 1978-2007 explained none of the variability in grass grazing rental rate, however when the projected 2008 corn price was included in the analysis, corn price explained 10% of the variation in grass grazing rates. Year (linear time trend) and corn price from 1978-2008 explained 88% of historical grass grazing rental rate variability, 71% of alfalfa price variability, and 63% of other hay price variability in Kansas. These results suggest that the new corn market paradigm likely will increase the relationship between corn price and feed costs at the cow-calf level. Several models were evaluated using bulk diesel fuel price, feeder calf price, corn price, alfalfa price, other hay price, and grass grazing rental rate to estimate Kansas cow-calf producer ROVC. Models that included diesel fuel price, feeder calf price, grazing rent, and one of the harvested feeds (corn, alfalfa, or other hay) price explained 90-91% of the variability in ROVC. Models that included diesel fuel price, feeder calf price, and either grazing rent or corn price explained less of the variability in ROVC; using grazing rent explained 89% and using corn price explained 79%. Including grass grazing rental rate along with corn price, feeder calf price, and bulk diesel fuel price improved the model's ability to predict ROVC, explaining 91% of the variability. While cow-calf producers might use very little corn directly in their operations, this research shows that corn price is an important determinant of cow-calf production returns, and corn price can be used by producers to plan for future rising costs in order to maximize returns.
During the past 10 years, ethanol production in the United States has grown exponentially. From 2000 to 2009 U.S. ethanol production increased from 1.6 billion gallons annually to 10.8 billion gallons annually. In 2010, U.S ethanol production increased by 23 percent from 2009 to 13.23 billion gallons. The increase in ethanol production was due to lawmakers reacting to skyrocketing oil prices by implementing a Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) in 2005 and expanding the RFS in 2007. The RFS requires the use of specified amounts of biofuels, such as ethanol, through the year 2022. The creation of the RFS represented a step beyond lawmakers' usual policy of using the tax code to promote ethanol production. There is a long history of encouraging ethanol production by using the tax code, but the implementation of a biofuels mandate is new and therefore there is not a great deal of research on the effects of such a policy. This study analyzes U.S. oil, unleaded gasoline, corn and ethanol prices dating back to 1985 to determine the impact that the RFS has had on corn prices. The key question answered is whether the creation and expansion of the RFS has brought the instability of the oil market into the corn market. The prices that an ethanol plant in western Kansas paid for the grain it used to produce ethanol and the price that the plant received for the ethanol that it produced are also analyzed. The plant began operation in January 2004, so it is possible to analyze the grain and ethanol prices both before and after the implementation and expansion of the RFS. To study the impact of the RFS creation and expansion, the prices were analyzed to see if there was an increase in the correlation after the creation and expansion of the RFS. Regression analysis of the national corn prices and the prices that Western Plains Energy paid for the grain that it used to produce ethanol; and regression analysis of the national price of ethanol and the price that Western Plains Energy sold its ethanol for were also used to study the impact of the RFS. Finally, the vector autoregression (VAR) model is used to analyze the dynamic relationships between the variables in the system: corn price, oil price, ethanol price and unleaded gasoline price. The analysis of the correlation reveals that both at the national and plant level grain and oil prices track much more closely together after the creation and then expansion of the RFS. The VAR reveals that there is some relationship between corn and oil prices contemporaneously. The correlation matrix of residuals reveals that there is not a strong correlation between national corn and oil prices. The results suggest the need for greater research in this area. The creation and expansion of the RFS represented a step into uncharted territory and the consequences are still not known.
The production and use of ethanol in the U.S. have been steadily increasing since 2001, boosted in part by production subsidies. That growth has exerted upward pressure on the price of corn and, ultimately, on the retail price of food, affecting both individual consumers and fed. expend. on nutritional support programs. It has also raised questions about the environmental consequences of replacing gasoline with ethanol. This analysis examines the relationship between increasing production of ethanol and rising prices for food. It estimated how much of the rise in food prices between 4/07 and 4/08 was due to an increase on the production of ethanol and how much that increase in prices might raise fed. expend. on food assistance programs. Tables and graphs.
Model results indicate an expected average marketing year price of $4.97 per bushel and a price volatility of 17.5% without the 10 billion gallon EISA mandate but with maintenance of the $0.51 per gallon tax credit. Imposition of the mandate increases the expected price by 7.1% and price volatility by 12.1%. The effects of the mandate are modest as ethanol production would average 9.5 billion gallons without the mandate because of high gasoline prices. The mandate is binding with a probability of 37.8%, which indicates that an additional tax or subsidy will be needed to ensure that the mandate is met. High corn prices caused by drought can cause the mandate to bind. Fixing 2008 corn yields at extreme drought levels increases expected corn prices to $6.59 per bushel without a mandate and to $7.99 per bushel with the EISA mandate. An average additional subsidy of $0.73 per gallon of ethanol would be needed to ensure that the mandate is met in this drought scenario.
U.S. policy to expand the production of biofuel for domestic energy use has significant implications for agriculture and resource use. While ongoing research and development investment may radically alter the way biofuel is produced in the future, for now, corn-based ethanol continues to account for most biofuel production. As corn ethanol production increases, so does the production of corn. The effect on agricultural commodity markets has been national, but commodity production adjustments, and resulting environmental consequences, vary across regions. Changes in the crop sector have also affected the cost of feed for livestock producers. As the Nation demands more biofuel production, and markets for new biofuel feedstocks, such as crop residues emerge, the agricultural landscape will be further transformed. This book explores the changes and expanding usage of ethanol and corn biofuels.
Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.