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This book delves into the economic development of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Since the 1960s, the GCC states have harnessed their potential to exploit the wealth accrued from the oil boom to build their infrastructure and grow their economies. However, the high level of dependency on oil as the primary source feeding their output made their economies volatile and vulnerable to fluctuations in the global oil prices. Moreover, the plunge in oil prices and the threat of depletion of this natural resource pose serious challenges to the GCC countries. Consequently, the GCC governments have realized the importance of diversifying their economies following the need to move away from reliance on hydrocarbon. This book contributes to the theoretical literature by enriching the debate on the transition of the GCC countries from rentier states to diversified economies. It helps students and scholars understand this transformation with an expansive comprehension of the contemporary challenges facing the region, as well as outlining prospects for the future.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
The Arab states of the Gulf, currently heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, have stated their intention to promote economic diversification and have embarked on reforming existing institutions for higher education, scientific research, and technology innovation. The region has witnessed huge population growth in recent decades, and in some cases (e.g. Saudi Arabia) almost half the population is under the age of twenty-five and in need of access to quality education and meaningful employment opportunities. This book provides an in-depth discussion of what is needed to accelerate the development of science, technology and innovation in the Gulf. Among other issues, the authors discuss the need for regional collaboration, and tackle systemic challenges such as immigration policies, career incentives for GCC citizens, and increased inclusion of women in the workforce.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries own 30 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and largely depend on oil for their income. Yet the GCC faces serious challenges. The global demand for oil is expected to continue declining, and the average long-run oil price could become lower than its historical average in the future. This book is a research-based, structural macroeconomic analysis, providing evidence-based and future-facing policy recommendations for GCC governments. First, it analyzes historical data to explain the macroeconomic performance and economic policies of the GCC countries from 1970 to 2019. Then it presents ten-year dynamic stochastic projections from 2020 to 2030. The book examines debt sustainability and optimal fiscal policies – i.e., government spending and taxation. It also analyses structural issues, such as savings and productivity, from an institutional perspective, taking into account education, the labor market, and pension funds, as well as other factors that have a close effect on economic performance. The book is comprehensive and thorough, it relies on extensive econometric analyses, including rigorous time series analysis. The author uses both calibration of theoretical models and estimation, facilitating projections for the next decade of key economic variables under different policy scenarios. The book also assesses what the future of the GCC economies will look like if climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic continue to adversely affect oil supply and demand and the price of oil, given their current policies and institutions. As well as scholars and researchers of economics and finance, the book will engage policymakers in central banks, treasury departments, planning councils, research institutes, and think tanks.
This book looks at the current state of entrepreneurship development in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, consisting of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. It is a comprehensive state-of-the-art coverage of entrepreneurship and small business management issues, supported with theoretical discussion and empirical evidence. The book covers current processes in each country, paving the ways for potential investors, researchers, academics and professionals to better understand this region. An outcome of long-lasting endeavour, this book includes contributions from experts across the Gulf region.
An original and empirically grounded analysis of the Gulf monarchies and their role in shaping the political economy of the Middle East.
This open access book questions the stereotype depicting all Gulf (GCC) economies as not sustainable, and starts a critical discussion of what these economies and polities should do to guarantee themselves a relatively stable future. Volatile international oil markets and the acceleration of the energy transition has challenged the notion that oil revenues are sufficient to sustain oil economies in the near to medium term. But what is the meaning of economic sustainability? The book discusses the multiple dimensions of the concept: economic diversification, continuing value of resources, taxation and fiscal development, labor market sustainability, sustainable income distribution, environmental sustainability, political order (democracy or authoritarianism) and sustainability, regional integration. The overarching message in this book is that we should move on from the simplistic branding of the Gulf economies as unsustainable and tackle the details of which adaptations they might need to undertake.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
The Arab Gulf states all face increasing challenges in terms of sustainable consumption and production. These include: - Environmental sustainability issues such as waste, recycling, water usage, energy, including the use of renewables, and pollution - Economic sustainability issues including employment opportunities for local people, education and training and engagement of business and individuals that make up the supply chains - Social sustainability issues such as safety at work, working hours, equality and diversity, noise, dust and pollution, traffic congestion, stakeholder engagement and community involvement in decision-making While much of the previous research on this subject has been Western-centric, the present book includes contributions on these topics from specialists from the UAE, Bahrain, Lebanon, Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Qatar as well as from the US and the UK.