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Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipatedfuture warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possiblechanges in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced withatmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observedsea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertimeice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations changelittle, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The icethickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050,but the region could support some commercial shipping.
Following a decision by the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB) in July 1996 the then chainnan, Geoffrey Holland, wrote a letter of invitation to a meeting to plan a "Symposium on the Freshwater Balance of the Arctic". The meeting was held in Ottawa on November 12-13 1996 and was attended by representatives of various organisations, including the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF), as well as individual scientists. Results of this meeting included: • Co-sponsorship with AOSB by the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR), the Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). • A decision to apply for funding as a Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Scientific Affairs Division. • That expenses would be covered in part by funds available through an existing NSF grant to the SCOR Executive offices in Baltimore, MD. • The appointment of myself to be Chairman/Manager for the Symposium. • Provision of a recommended list of Scientific Advisors to assist the Chainnan in selecting key speakers.
The Pacific Arctic region is experiencing rapid sea ice retreat, seawater warming, ocean acidification and biological response. Physical and biogeochemical modeling indicates the potential for step-function changes to the overall marine ecosystem. This synthesis book was coordinated within the Pacific Arctic Group, a network of international partners working in the Pacific Arctic. Chapter topics range from atmospheric and physical sciences to chemical processing and biological response to changing environmental conditions. Physical and biogeochemical modeling results highlight the need for data collection and interdisciplinary modeling activities to track and forecast the changing ecosystem of the Pacific Arctic with climate change.
We are only now beginning to understand the climatic impact of the remarkable events that are now occurring in subarctic waters. Researchers, however, have yet to agree upon a predictive model that links change in our northern seas to climate. This volume brings together the body of evidence needed to develop climate models that quantify the ocean exchanges through subarctic seas, measure their variability, and gauge their impact on climate.
The current warming trends in the Arctic may shove the Arctic system into a seasonally ice-free state not seen for more than one million years. The melting is accelerating, and researchers were unable to identify natural processes that might slow the deicing of the Arctic. Such substantial additional melting of Arctic and Antarctic glaciers and ice sheets would raise the sea level worldwide, flooding the coastal areas where many of the world's population lives. Studies, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Arizona, show that greenhouse gas increases over the next century could warm the Arctic by 3-5°C in summertime. Thus, Arctic summers by 2100 may be as warm as they were nearly 130,000 years ago, when sea levels eventually rose up to 6 m higher than today.
Freeze-up at Alert, Eureka, Isachsen, Mould Bay, and Resolute in the Canadian Arctic was observed to occur any time between the last week in August and the last week in September. A mathematical relationship between air temperature and sea-ice formation provided a favorable method for predicting the date of freeze-up at these stations. The maximum seasonal growth of sea ice, 269 cm, was measured at Isachsen; the minimum, 149 cm, was measured at Resolute. These values are based on measurements made at the five stations in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago having a total of 35 station years of record. Equations to predict the growth of sea ice by increments were derived empirically from the observations made at these locations. A separate term is introduced in the equations to take account of the effects of snow-cover depths on ice growth. To apply the formulas only air-temperature and snow-depth data are required. The study disclosed good correlation between air temperature and decrease in sea-ice thickness at the Arctic stations. The relationship was found to be: h = 0.55 sigma theta where h = decrease in ice thickness (cm) and sigma theta = accumulated degree days (above -1.8C). (Author).
The Arctic is now experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate change on earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, ecological, social, and economic changes, many of which have already begun. Changes in arctic climate will also affect the rest of the world through increased global warming and rising sea levels. The volume addresses the following major topics: - Research results in observing aspects of the Arctic climate system and its processes across a range of time and space scales - Representation of cryospheric, atmospheric, and oceanic processes in models, including simulation of their interaction with coupled models - Our understanding of the role of the Arctic in the global climate system, its response to large-scale climate variations, and the processes involved.
Surveys atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric processes, present and past conditions, and changes in polar environments.