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This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.
Issuance of government securities in the domestic market is the most effective way of funding public needs. Historically, governments to meet their needs for financial resources committed borrowing in central banks through direct loans or through the issuance of special securities. However, many developing countries rely heavily to finance their deficit through getting foreign aid and soft loans from foreign states and international organizations. However, there is limited availability of official flows in each country.So, it is very important how much government must pay for its obligations and what factors affect the price of attracting additional financial resources through issuance government securities.
The recent sharp increase in fiscal deficits and government debt in many countries raises questions regarding their impact on long-term sovereign bond yields. While economic theory suggests that this impact is likely to be adverse, empirical results have been less clear cut, have generally ignored nonlinear effects of deficits and debt through some other key determinants of yields, and have been mostly confined to advanced economies. This paper reexamines the impact of fiscal deficits and public debt on long-term interest rates during 1980 - 2008, taking into account a wide range of country-specific factors, for a panel of 31 advanced and emerging market economies. It finds that higher deficits and public debt lead to a significant increase in long-term interest rates, with the precise magnitude dependent on initial fiscal, institutional and other structural conditions, as well as spillovers from global financial markets. Taking into account these factors suggests that large fiscal deficits and public debts are likely to put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Topicality of Asian economy has refused to fade for almost four decades; if anything it has been levitating. The Asian economy has changed markedly since the economic and financial crisis of 1997-1998 and is continuing to evolve. As a scholarly subject matter, Asian economy has not stopped attracting academicians, policy mandarins, decision makers in the arena of business and students of Asian economy. The Asian crisis was a cataclysmic event for the region and brought to the surface several systemic limitations, like those in the financial sector, corporate governance, regulatory oversight, legal framework, and exchange rate management. Managers of Asian economy need to get to the bottom of these acutely problematical systemic issues. Additionally, Asian economies need to change with the demands of time and devise their post-crisis development strategy. Asia’s growth model, that served it so well for four decades, is overdue for renewal so that it can re-strengthen its bonds with the ever-evolving regional and global economic reality. The old growth model is likely to be less relevant and effective in the post-crisis future of the Asian economies. It is sure to run into the wall of diminishing returns. An outstanding feature of Asian Economy and Finance: A Post-Crisis Perspective is that unlike most Asia-related books, it is written in a comprehensive and authoritative manner and covers large areas of Asian macro-economy and finance. The noteworthy areas of focus include global and intra-regional trade and investment, as well as financial and monetary aspects. In-depth discussions have been provided on regional integration through expanding trade, financial flows, regional production networks, financial and monetary co-operation. In taking a contemporary or post-crisis view of the Asian economy, this book offers the newest knowledge related to relevant themes on the Asian economies as well as the latest concepts. In a succinct manner, this book deals with the principal normative and positive strands with which one need to be properly familiar in this subject area. This tightly written volume covers a great deal of ground and imparts knowledge on the Asian economy related themes to students, researchers and policy makers alike. Asian Economy and Finance: A Post-Crisis Perspective is neither overly technical nor model-oriented. It is easy to access for the target readership because of its descriptive analysis style, which stops short of mathematical formulations and econometric modeling. Many students and other readers who have good analytical minds and sound knowledge of economic principles feel lost in mathematical formulations. This writing style makes it accessible to a much larger number of readers.
Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a market stochastic discount factor that is non-linear and therefore consistent with the empirical properties of cashflow valuations identified in the literature. We provide evidence that non-linearities arise from hedging strategies of investors exposed to interest rate risk. Capital losses are amplified when interest rates increase and risk averse investors have taken positions on instruments with longer maturity, expecting instead interest rates to revert back to their historical average.
Are Bunds special? This paper estimates the “Bund premium” as the difference in convenience yields between other sovereign safe assets and German government bonds adjusted for sovereign credit risk, liquidity and swap market frictions. A higher premium suggests less substitutability of sovereign bonds. We document a rise in the “Bund premium” in the post-crisis period. We show that there is a negative relationship of the premium with the relative supply of German sovereign bonds, which is more pronounced for higher maturities and when risk aversion proxied by bond market volatility is high. Going forward, we expect German government debt supply to remain scarce, with important implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy.